Rebound Boost

UPDATE:?2023 ASEAN Chair?Indonesia?welcomes?Timor Leste, but Myanmar and global tensions are challenges. Indonesian foreign minister?Retno Marsudi?takes Office of the Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair on?Myanmar. The South China Sea?Code of Conduct?is another key issue for Retno Marsudi wrapped in non-proliferation and territorial integrity.

The value of?Cambodian trade?with the nine other ASEAN countries reached $16.053 billion in 2022 a rise of over 15%, can it keep the momentum in a challenging environment.?Russian tourists?seek ASEAN sun and fun; Vietnam and Thailand prepare. Biodiversity is critical for ASEAN and EU links.?

China’s rebound?boosts ASEAN but slower demand in advanced economies means weaker exports.?ASEAN trade?is a new El Dorado for EU and No1 market for China, can ASEAN keep its global dynamism? Climate solutions need?biodiversity?to join renewable energy and green technology development.

The?Long Mekong Daily?will be devoting a special issue on Indonesia and Retno Marsudi this week, but todays edition signals the importance of Jakarta’s role in shaping ASEAN progress

ASEAN’s foreign ministers renewed calls for intensified engagement with all conflicting parties in Myanmar, as the crisis has dragged on just over two years since the military rejected the election results and the civilian administration led by Aung San Suu Kyi to reassert control over government . The ministers reiterated the call during their 32nd Coordinating Council Meeting and ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreat (AMM), held in the Indonesian capital Jakarta.

During the AMM, the ministers deliberated on the follow-up to the ASEAN Leaders’ Decision and Review on the Implementation of the Five-Point Consensus (5PC), according to the outcomes of the February 3-4 meetings released by the Cambodian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation.

The statement from the meetings, which took place without any representatives from Myanmar present, acknowledged the complexity and difficulty of the political crisis and that it would take time to reach a long-lasting political settlement.

“While cessation of violence and inclusive dialogue are an important step toward enduring peace, urgently building trust among concerned parties is a must. The meeting agreed that engagement with all concerned parties should be intensified in an inclusive and flexible manner, and in accordance with the ASEAN Charter,” it said.

The ministers reaffirmed their commitment to maintain ASEAN centrality and unity in the handling of the crisis in all circumstances. They also expressed their full support for Indonesian foreign minister Retno Marsudi and her Office of the Special Envoy of the ASEAN Chair on Myanmar.

Read full article?here .

South China Sea COC negotiations continue next month amid rising Asia-Pacific tensions

This year’s first round of negotiations for the Code of Conduct (COC) at the South China Sea will commence in March, said the Foreign Ministry on Friday, where Indonesia as ASEAN chairman will lead efforts to “explore new approaches” in navigating the increasingly “destabilized” region.?

The biggest hurdle for the upcoming talks, it added, would be mitigating the “security dilemma” which would inevitably make itself present, they noted. The negotiations would be part of Indonesia’s priority to implement the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, the ministry added, whereby all ASEAN member states have pledged their commitment to promote the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), a document officiated two decades ago which calls for the formulation of the COC.?

“[We agreed] to make our meetings with dialogue partners more effective and productive. […] Commitment of members to conclude the negotiations of COC as soon as possible is obvious, bearing in mind the need to have a substantive, effective and actionable COC,” said Foreign Minister Retno LP Marsudi on?the last day of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting (AMM).?

Recent months have seen China’s nine-dash line claim over the South China Sea resulting in escalating tensions within the region. In late December, Beijing had sent its largest coastal guard vessel to monitor the North Natuna Sea, an area under Jakarta’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), just weeks before the United States announced its plans to build military bases in the Philippines.?

The muscle flexing between the two superpowers has put ASEAN countries in a precarious position, with Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan warning that the situation “bears careful monitoring” on Wednesday ahead of Retno’s statement that the rivalry had become “destabilising” to ASEAN.?

Read full article?here .

Asean markets present global businesses with the diversification opportunities they seek

As the world enters 2023 with a renewed sense of uncertainty amid higher rates and the potential for a broad economic slowdown, Asian markets present businesses with opportunities to counter some of the risks ahead. China remains committed to its own economic structural transformation as it shifts gear to a rapid reopening following COVID-19 shutdowns, giving businesses clear impetus to continue exploring ‘China Plus One’ strategies as both a hedge and to capitalise on opportunities.

The diversification of trade and investment is presently front of mind for German businesses. There is also an ever-increasing eye on sustainability and, with the global supply chain balance being disrupted, Asean nations offer clear opportunities to businesses globally.

With growth rates in countries including Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia expected to outstrip those of more developed peers, the prospects ahead are compelling.

Firstly, it’s important to understand the shifting global growth dynamic, even as we eye the potential for a global recession this year. It’s unlikely we’ll see a rapid expansion in China with our economists forecasting growth over the course of this year to sit at just 4 per cent, even as the country reverses its zero tolerance covid measures.

This is a far cry from the days of double-digit growth in the past decade and comes at the same time as the Chinese economy alters structurally, continuing its shift towards a dual circulation model. This is where internal consumption and larger focus on the domestic market will work in tandem with current economic settings but will see China shift away from low-cost manufacturing and move up the value chain.

Read more?here .

Asean faces challenges, but there is great economic potential

Asean Foreign Ministers gathered in Jakarta, Indonesia for the Asean Coordinating Council Meeting and the Asean Foreign Ministers’ Retreat on Feb. 3 and 4. During a doorstop interview after the summit, Singaporean Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan spoke about three issues, Timor Leste, Myanmar, and Asean's untapped potential amidst soaring global tensions.

The first Asean summit of the year, now with Indonesia as chair, started on an upbeat note as the regional bloc welcomed the Timor Leste foreign minister. She was attending the summit for the first time since the country received its in-principle?acceptance ?in November 2022.

Vivian said that Timor Leste's participation as an observer and having full access to all Asean discussions was significant, and that Asean members were also supportive of the country's full participation.

Vivian said that he had reassured Timor Leste's foreign minister of Singapore's full support to help them bear the responsibilities and obligations that came with Asean membership.

Singapore would also provide an Asean readiness package for Timor Leste, that would help the country enhance their capabilities, human resource development, and give them the diplomatic and economic tools they would need to fully participate.

Timor Leste for its part was pleased to have the opportunity to participate, and was gaining a better and deeper appreciation for the weight of responsibilities and obligations.

Read more?here .

How China’s reopening is helping resilient Asia avert a full-blown recession

China’s surprise reopening and its spillover effects – mostly in the form of tourism – are seen as buttressing the region’s economies But weak demand in US and EU, which could both slide into recession this year, will be problematic for exporters in China and Asean.

But there are also vulnerabilities. Slower demand from developed economies will translate into weaker exports, a major threat to the region’s manufacturing hubs, as political instability within some countries also worries experts.

“Overall, growth should remain resilient in Asia in 2023, with a big improvement for China while the rest of Asia will decelerate, but not too much,” said chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis, Alicia Garcia-Herrero.

“Those economies less dependent on external demand will weather the storm better [such as India and the Philippines] while Taiwan and South Korea and, to a lesser extent, Vietnam will suffer a bit more.”

China’s exports to ‘contract’ until mid-2023, but reopening to lift imports13 Jan 2023

The Asian Development Bank will also be lifting its growth forecasts for the region, said bank economist Irfan Qureshi, as China’s reopening is expected to benefit surrounding countries that have strong trade links.

“Asia will continue to be the engine of global growth,” he said, pointing to projected growth of 4.2 per cent for Asia this year. “The one thing we need to watch out for is if rapid reopening in China puts upward pressure on global energy and commodity prices, which could hamper efforts by regional central banks to bring inflation down.”

Read more?here .

Cambodian exports to ASEAN markets rise 13%

The value of Cambodian trade with the nine other ASEAN countries reached $16.053 billion in 2022 – up 1.4 per cent from $15.838 million in 2021 – accounting for a 30.62 per cent share of the Kingdom’s $52.425 billion in total foreign trade for the year, down from a 32.99 per cent share in 2021, according to a Ministry of Commerce report.

The report, issued in conjunction with the ministry’s January 30-31 annual meeting, indicated that Cambodian exports to the nine countries rose by 13 per cent from $2.914 billion in 2021 to $3.297 billion last year, making up 14.7 per cent of the $22.483 billion in total exports. On the other hand, Cambodian imports from these markets slid by 1.3 per cent from $12.924 billion in 2021 to $12.756 billion last year, comprising 42.60 per cent of the $29.942 billion in total imports.

Vietnam and Thailand alone represented 67.28 per cent of 2022 Cambodian trade with the nine other ASEAN countries, at $6.136 billion and $4.664 billion, respectively, rising by 19.64 per cent and 14.22 per cent on a yearly basis. Aside from Cambodia, the other nine ASEAN countries are: Brunei, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

Read more?here .

Russia is an important tourism market of ASEAN

Russia is an important tourism?market ?of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and had always been a leading source of tourists of Vietnam before the COVID-19 pandemic broke out, Vietnamese Deputy Minister of Culture, Sports and Tourism Doan Van Viet has said. He made the remarks at the 2nd?ASEAN-Russia Tourism Ministers Meeting, which was held in Yogyakarta, Indonesia, within the framework of the 2023 ASEAN Tourism Forum (ATF 2023).

The upgrade of the meeting between ASEAN and Russia from the Tourism Consultation to the Ministers Meeting from 2022 is a solid foundation to further foster cooperation between the two sides in the coming time, Viet noted.

The deputy minister said that the Tourism Work Plan for the 2022-2024 period, which was approved by the first ASEAN-Russia Tourism Ministers' Meeting, paved the way for cooperation activities on promoting, training human resources as well as ensuring safe tourism and connection between the two sides. Therefore, to effectively implement the plan, it is necessary for the two sides to enhance linkages and regular exchanges from working groups to reach consensus on priority activities and find suitable resources for the implementation of joint projects and activities, he said.

According to the official, in the future, it is essential to strengthen collaboration activities to promote digital advertising to the Russian market, spread the image of?ASEAN ?tourism in Russia, and continuing to organise Russian language training courses for tourism workers and tour guides of the ASEAN region.

Read full article?here .

The critical role Asean and EU play in restoring biodiversity

Until recently, international meetings on biodiversity, held under the auspices of the Convention on Biodiversity, have suffered relative anonymity compared with higher-profile climate negotiations. While nature groups and environmental scientists have long pointed out the link between climate and biodiversity crises, climate solutions have neglected biodiversity in favour of renewable energy or green technology development.

The recent COP15 in Montreal ratified a new post-2020 Biodiversity Framework, with notable elements in setting aside 30 per cent of the earth’s land and oceans for the protection of nature, and restoring at least 30 per cent of the world’s degraded habitats.

This is particularly important for the majestic forests, rich coral reefs, wetlands and tropical peatlands in South-east Asia. But critical ecosystems need considerable human assistance to recover. Degraded habitats, particularly peatlands, emit a tremendous amount of carbon dioxide, which causes climate change, more volatile and extreme weather and consequently an increase in natural disasters such as landslides or flooding.?

Read more?here .