A Reason to Smile About Politics

If you’re as weary of political rhetoric as I, here’s a reason to be joyful about it: The emotion and banter has fueled billions of new, as-yet unspent advertising dollars. And it’s all headed for local markets next year, where those “old-time” media companies suddenly have an interesting advantage.

As outlined last week in this Media Post article, 2018 is shaping up to be an $8.5 billion year for political advertising. It’s a midterm election year, which means all those dollars will be spent locally, boosting political to a "Top 5" ad category in most markets (see chart atop this column). Markets like Denver are likely to see an influx of $128 million, Yuma $8.9 million, Indianapolis $87 million, and Richmond, Va., $32.9 million. Even the vast, sparsely populated territory of North Dakota will see hordes of money being spent. (To see the detail on North Dakota, click here and download the sample report.)

Where’s all that money coming from? Local or statewide PACs and Special Interest Groups. Veritable war chests that are being accumulated in each state by these locally-focused groups account for more than half of all political ad dollars forecast to be spent next year. Money spent by gubernatorial candidates, U.S. Senate and House candidates, and local school boards and town councils pale in comparison. If you’re skeptical, visit this page at OpenSecrets.org and search for your state. (Warning: You may lose at least 30 minutes of your day doing this.)

Why are traditional media companies advantaged? From what we’re hearing, candidates and PACs are spooked by stories about ads appearing around questionable content, especially online. So the new story by older media companies that seems to resonate is, “Trust us. We’ve been around for generations, and we’re well connected with the community.” That holds true for newspapers, TV stations, radio stations, outdoor companies, and cable systems.

Are PACs/campaigns/buyers REALLY going to be receptive to working more with local media over programmatic desks? I posed the question to Chris Nolan, founder of ad-buying network Spot-On.

“At this point,” she told me, “it’s the triumph of hope over experience.”

What’s her advice for a seller or media company could do to maximize the potential for sales in 2018?

“Stop shooting themselves in the foot," Nolan said. "Publishers need to understand that they have given away a lot of inventory programmatically to political buyers. When customers approach them directly, they make it very difficult to quickly buy political inventory; costs are higher, fulfillment is spotty, terms are dictated in regard to disclosures, which are sometimes unrealistic. And they’re slow.”

Millions will be in play in every market next year. That is, they’re not committed yet, and they’re susceptible to a well-honed sales approach. I’m so convinced that I added a full session on this topic to the agenda for #LOAC2018 in New York in March. (See the agenda here.)

Next year, if forecasts come true, political advertising will be one of the Top 5 ad categories in any local market, rivaling furniture, telecom, restaurants, and banks. It’s the perfect time to start strategizing about this “new” category...and it may cause you to stop frowning and start smiling when you see the level of political discord occurring out there.