Realpolitik
President Zelensky would do well to study up on a term that once used to be widely known – realpolitik. This can best be defined as politics or diplomacy based on practical considerations, or on existing circumstances, rather than on ideological, moral or ethical ones. Synonyms include realism, or pragmatism. Many famous practitioners come to mind: Machiavelli of Italy, von Talleyrand of France, Klemens von Metternich of Austria, Cardinal Richelieu of France, Otto von Bismark of Germany, Sun Tzu and Deng Xiaoping of China, Thomas Hobbs of the UK, and others who we know as Americans. These include Hans Morgenthau, Henry Kissinger, George Bush, and Zbigniew Brzezinski, born in Poland and father of Mika Brzezinski, a cohost of the liberal program Morning Joe.
What do these celebrity diplomats have in common? Wikipedia quotes Rahm Emanuel, Obama’s Chief of Staff and the brother of a bioethicist, on realpolitik, saying “You’ve got to be cold-blooded about the self-interests of your nation.” The most recent politician to promulgate this idea is President Trump, who says repeatedly that he wants to put America first. That is why President Zelensky misread the room so badly when he came to see Trump in the Oval Office. You see, though published numbers vary, the Council on Foreign Relations reports that the U.S. Congress has passed five bills, appropriating $175 billion, in support of Ukraine since February, 2022, and, of this, $106 billion went directly to the Ukraine government. Other numbers are higher. Trump claims the U.S. has spent $350 billion.
Whatever the actual amount, what was the result? Zelensky has limited the Russian land grab to about 20% of Ukraine and prevented Putin from taking over the whole country. Now the war has ground to a near-standstill, and Zelensky balks at signing a rare earth treaty in which the U.S. would partner with Ukraine to mine and sell these valuable commodities, thus reimbursing U.S. taxpayers for much of their support. What Zelensky failed to understand is that Trump is a practitioner of realpolitik. He wants to know what the benefit is for U.S. citizens after handing out so much money, and why we should deplete the U.S. treasury, already likely to go in the tank in the next few years, to incur another bill that will not be paid back.
So, Zelensky got into a fight with Trump because he thinks the proposed treaty is not favorable enough to Ukraine, interrupting Trump, talking over him, and yelling at him while his foreign minister lowered her head into her hands, likely in tears. Who won this match, and who lost?
Arguably Zelensky is the winner, because pictures of Trump and JD Vance ganging up on Zelensky have evoked so much sympathy for him that the EU finally is offering to cough up some of the money that Trump has been trying to prod them into spending for so long. Arguably, Trump was a winner, even though he is being widely criticized for bullying Zelensky, because if the EU picks up more of the bill for defense of Ukraine, that is just what Trump wants. Most likely Putin will be a loser, because he will not be able to use the off-ramp that Trump held out to him for exiting this costly war immediately. Surely the Ukrainian people will be the losers, because they no longer see an immediate horizon for ending the war.
The EU is the loser in that it gets more of the bill, though their public expressions of sympathy and solidarity enhance their image as good guys. China may be a winner, because the deal between Trump and Russia would have lateraled money to the U.S. from Ukraine and perhaps from Russia for anticipated Ukrainian mineral rights, driving a wedge between Russia and China. Machiavelli might say that Trump lured Zelensky into this public spat, to recruit the EU into spending some of their own money on defense. Kissinger would say that the most important goal is for all the stakeholders to feel that they have gained something. That is the way to keep everyone in the deal that the UK and France are preparing so Ukraine will have something in hand to help him get back into Trump’s good graces. After all, Trump pressure on Russia is the one thing everyone has been counting on to get the parties back on track toward the peace we all want so desperately.
The Democrats are gleefully saying that Trump is a puppet of Russia, because he has been working with the Russians to negotiate a peace agreement, but remember, you do not have to work hard to maintain relationships with friends. Anyone can do that. But it is extremely difficult to build and maintain workable relationships with enemies. That is realpolitik.