IS IT REALLY CLOSE?

As the great American showdown looms and voters shuffle to the polls, the presidential race appears to be closer than skin on a sausage, with polling no better at predicting a winner than a coin toss. If you’re scratching your head as to whether this is reflecting reality or a bit of spin in the media, you’re in good company. Here are a few insights often kept behind the media curtains that might make things a tad clearer when examining polling predictions and what might eventuate in reality.

1. Polling: A Snapshot, Not a Forecast Polls aim to capture voters’ intentions as they stand right now. But let’s not forget, human behaviour is as unpredictable as Elon’s posts. No matter how sophisticated the methodology or how well-polished the representative sample, a whole host of curveballs can still influence voting (whether they will vote and for whom). As a guide, we usually see a third admitting they could change their minds right up to the moment of casting their vote.

2. The ‘Distortion Effect’ We’re in an age where poll numbers are often weaponised to rally the troops rather than illuminate the truth. Media outlets, each with their own editorial lean, can amplify certain polls or sideline others, offering a tinted, sometimes distorted lens on public sentiment. Suddenly, what’s meant to be a barometer of the public pulse becomes more of a carnival mirror—stretching reality, one headline at a time.

3. Personality Types and Polling Pitfalls The media and pundits like to treat demographics such as ethnicity, age, and gender as homogeneous groups. However, we’ve found the OCEAN personality model is better for cutting through these rather outdated stereotypes and getting under the skin to understand behaviour. Specifically, those high in “Conscientiousness” (the "C" in OCEAN) are statistically more likely to vote. So, if a candidate’s base skews a bit less conscientious, those “supporters” may actually stay home, preferring Netflix to standing in the voting queue.

4. Motivation – The Key Ingredient Just because voters say they’ll turn up in a poll doesn’t mean they actually will. We downweight the enthusiasm factor, a fancy way of saying we don’t fully trust them to show up. Even amongst those who proclaim they’ll "definitely" vote, a good 10% somehow don’t. Examining voting intention by enthusiasm can have a dramatic impact on overall votes. It’s arguable that messaging becomes shriller to trigger a deeper emotion for them to vote than in countries where it’s compulsory (e.g., Australia).

5. The 2016 Lesson on Distractions Back in 2016, polling showed Clinton supporters were far more susceptible to “distractions” on election day, revealing a lack of deep-seated motivation. Trump voters turned up in numbers significantly higher than what was predicted, compared to Clinton’s. Below is a graph on this, highlighting both intended voters by what they thought was likely and distractions on the day of voting.

GRAPH - 'LIKELY AND DISCOURAGING'

6. History Likes to Repeat Itself A dose of déjà vu: in 2016, Clinton led in the polls by 4% on the eve of the election. In 2020, Biden’s lead was 8%, and now, in 2024, Harris is leading Trump by just 1% (source: BBC and 538/ABC News). Historically, if you’re a Democrat facing Trump, it appears you’ll need a hefty buffer in the popular vote to overcome him because your supporters just might be distracted from voting. This year, Harris’s wafer-thin margin could spell trouble if she fails to up the ante in their minds and her communication is certainly being upped.

So, what are we to make of it all? Harris might be just ahead in the polling, but the personality profile, behavioural motivation, and history favour Trump. The betting market has Trump as favourite, so place your bets!