Reality TV comes to the White House! Trump to Zelensky: You’re Fired!

A new ‘world order’ takes shape

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The US and Europe have nurtured the same relationship with small tweaks and shifts since WII ended. Some changes have been more significant than others. In the immediate Post War period the US stepped to the fore. The UK lost a good deal of its empire in the war, in part paying for the War. The US was not a war battlefield, and its economy was in the best shape by far when war ended. All it needed to do was to re-tool its existing factories away from military goods to consumer goods to serve post-war needs.

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Europe has a long recovery with a lot of rebuilding and fences to mend a Germany was partitioned and then reunited. It took years for Germany to be reunited in the post-war period and that happened under the formation of the European Monetary System as the EU was further expanded and developed in a move to unite Europe and try to diminish the prospect for European acrimony to renew tensions and war there. And of course, Russia was always the outsider and the threat.

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But, as the post-war period progressed, the dominant role of the US was not diminished. NATO was formed to provide a protective umbrella over Europe in the nuclear age. Over time NATO’s needs grew but some NATO members, notably Germany, refused to up their contribution to the levels sought by the US who was the major funding country of NATO. The US carried that burden in the post war period…and it never put it down.

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Joe, Grease-the-skids, Biden

Joe Biden lost the power of deterrence over Russia, in part, because of his errant behavior as the US exited Afghanistan. Russia was ‘threatened’ with weak sanctions if it invaded Ukraine. The US watched massive troop build-up on Ukraine border, and we were told this was ‘for show’ as weak sanctions were threatened since Europe would not support stronger sanctions. these up failed to deter invasion. What’s worse Biden assured Russia that there were no US or NATO troops in Ukraine essentially greasing the skids for Russia to pour across the border and it did.

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The deterrence welcome mat

Regardless of what Donald Trump says, Russia invaded Ukraine, unprovoked. The US and Europe made two things clear to Russia as it massed troops on the Ukraine’s borders (1) we did not want it to invade Ukraine, and (2) We were not willing to do much to stop it. That pretty much sealed the deal.

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The defense as offence threat to Russia

There is a narrative from Jeffrey Sachs and Tucker Carlson about how the spread of NATO entrapped and suffocated Russia making it feel threatened. There is even an assertion that the US promised not to expand NATO to the east, a word-of-mouth mention that was never codified into any international agreement but is now being twisted to infer Western aggression. NATO is a defensive arrangement, and its frontier is mostly protecting countries of Eastern Europe, once under Russia’s thumb as part of the USSR. These are countries that do not want to go under the yoke of Russia again. Meanwhile, this is not an idle concern of theirs. Putin continues to speak of the demise of the USSR as the worst event of his lifetime and he has continued to express his desire to reform the USSR. So how is it that NATO is in some sense a threat to him? It is a bulwark against his expansionist ambitions and his desire to rewrite history the ways it once was.

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The specific case of Ukraine is more complicated since it has long been an adjunct ally of Russia. There are many Russians and Russian speakers in Ukraine. Ukraine also shares a lack of respect for the rule of law with Russia. That has stood as a dividing point for Ukraine to be accepted into the West and to the EU membership it has sought.

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Ukraine is complicated

Zelensky’s performance in the Oval office comes against a complicated background that would become more complicated if I tried to carry the narrative of Ukraine forward, blow by blow. I will not try to disentangle that ball of string. But in recent years Ukraine has vacillated between coming more under Russia’s control or moving closer to the West. Ukraine’s desire to move closer to the West had not been accompanied by the changes and increased respect for its institutions of government that the West sought before membership. Russia installed a puppet president who rejected Ukraine’s overtures to the EU. Not surprisingly, he was overthrown and there was US involvement. Both the US and Russia have been active in trying to influence Ukraine. Does that make either of them right?

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Who is the biggest liar of all?

When Rusaai was unable to make their puppet government stick Putin began to threaten Ukraine and want it to repudiate NATO membership. Eventually, Ukraine would not and did not provide the right assurances and the tanks rolled despite Joe Bidne’s assurances that sanctions would stop Russia. Biden later admitted that he knew sanctions would not stop Russia, making that lie to the American people worse than perhaps any lie previously told to the American people in terms of tis costliness in lives destruction and monies the US subsequently spent to support Ukraine.

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Enter the Trumpster

?When Donald Trump was President (Trump-I) he gave Ukraine the tank-stopping shoulder-fired missiles, Javelins. Obama refused to give them. Trump, however, did. Later he pressed Zelensky to investigate Burisma and Hunter Biden was on the board of that Ukrainian company, Biden’s involvement with the company was well known as well as Joe Biden’s actions there while VP. Zelensky would not investigate. Later when Biden was running against Trump for President, the second time, in this past election, before Bidne dropped out, Zelensky showed up in the US in support of Biden dung the election season. Trump, who has never been a person of moderation has plenty of baggage with Zelensky having supported Zelensky and supported him a lot and not having gotten what he wanted in return.

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Trump who not only has controversial foreign policy views, undoubtedly has some personal animosity against Zelensky. Trump came to office in 2025 with pledge to stop the war and has taken controversial steps. His approach is one we cannot analyze very well because, as I have written elsewhere, ( You need a Trump de-coder ring). Trump uses unusual tactics and often says things that are not really part of his plan to throw people off his trail. I liken his to Jurassic Park’s Velociraptors who never attack from the front. As an example, in a press conference recently a reporter asked Trump if he still thought Zelensky was dictator (something Trump clearly had said). Trump responded to that saying something like…” I didn’t say that…did I say that? Next question.” ?This is typical of Trump using language to make impressions rather to be factually accurate. It is infuriating to those who oppose him – and more infuriating to those who try to bargain with him.

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So currently Trump is trying to broker a deal to stop the War. He is trying to deal with Zelensky and Putin. Trump recently gave us some insight into this as he was criticized for saying nice things about Putin. Trump responded saying something like…so you want me to be tough and to threaten him and then to negotiate a deal with him? Then Trump said, ‘it doesn’t work that way.’? Clearly taking these statements by Trump at face value is wrong.

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Trump has different strategies for different actors

His dealing with Zelensky makes it clear that Trump understands what he is dealing with. He keeps telling Zelensky that he holds ‘no cards.’ Zelensky does not seem to understand what that means. Joe Biden may previously left Zelensky with the idea that the US would support him forever. And maybe Biden would have. Trump won’t. Zelensky does not seem to understand who he is dealing with and that is a huge problem for him, as well as for Trump, Putin, and for the hopes of any deal.

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The Oval Office SNAFU

Trump and his people thought they had a deal. They thought the Oval Office meeting was a perfunctory public Q&A about a deal that was already struck prepared and ready to be signed. But Zelensky apparently had misgivings and despite having agreed to a particular deal he broke ranks with it in the Oval Office, wanting more security. Trump was and still is quite angry.

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The Zelensky cold-shoulder Vs Putin’s Love boat

Trump has been brought to this point after finding out much of Europeans’ Ukraine assistance was LOANED money to Ukraine while Biden gifted it. Trump became focused on trying to get something back for the US, he produced this mineral deal. But as part of it he did not want to give up NATO membership and certainly not Article 5 protection to Ukraine. So, Trump, holding the upper hand, has been dictating terms to Zelensky. As for Putin Trump has little real leverage over him so he has chosen to flatter Putin. Does that mean he really sides with Putin? All I can say is that we will find out…but I doubt it.

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The Art of the Deal ????

So, this is the art of the deal in action. I do not know, and no one really knows where this is going. But Trump knows who he is dealing with. It would be wrong to view him as selling Ukraine out to Russia although that is one possibility. Trump is simply using the obvious relative bargaining strengths to begin to put a deal together.

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A game played by two

Zelensky has little leverage. Putin, on the other hand, while very wounded, his military in tatters, and relying on conscripted criminals, mercenaries, and North Korean soldiers is unbent and still in control. He is a dictator. He knows Trump’s objective is peace and Putin has set his sights on getting even MORE of Ukraine that the territory he currently occupies as part of a deal to stop the war. Putin, like Trump, knows how to play this game and he still has some ability to bring pain to the conflict. US intelligence agencies estimate that by later this year Putin will run out of resources to continue at his current pace. Already Russia is using civilian vehicles to supply the front. Putin is swallowing his teeth rather than admitting he has been hurt.

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So, this sets the table. It explains why Trump treats Zelensky and Putin differently. Some of the minerals Trump wants are located in part s of Ukraine that is now partly occupied by Russia or sought by Russia. Putin can see what the US has its sights set on… and he can see it conflicts with his own aim and desires. So unspoken behind the scenes but very much on the front of the minds of both Trump and Putin is their conflict and lust for the same minerals. So far this is mostly unspoken, but it is a core part of the conflict, and it puts Trump on Ukraine’s side (by the way…doubters).

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Before the Zelensky-Trump blow up in the Oval Office Trump had spoken to reporters saying he was going to try to get land back, but it was unclear what he could get. This is very different from what people were inferring from Trump’s earlier comments that getting back the pre-invasion borders was unrealistic. However, it is not in conflict with the earlier statement either. Trump is nobody’s fool. And the media hate him, and they take every opportunity to take anything he says to put in in the worst light possible. Reading press reports on Trump written by the liberal media is something you do at your own risk…

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Hating Trump

Hating Trump is not a way to understand him. Democrats, particularly Hakim Jeffries, seem to think Trump is the enemy instead of our president. Just about anything Trump sets out to do Democrats oppose. This is, of course, after four years in which Democrats did many things passing legislation on the tie-breaking vote of the VP after winning a national election on a thin mandate. They used a razor thin edge and tight control to pass their agenda that had many unpalatable elements to it including allowing crime, opening the borders, and pursuing a gender policy that puts female athletes at risk.

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Democrats act as though Trump is dismantling the world and creating a new order. He is dismantling their world. And it begins with dismantling many of the things that THEY did over the last four years. Trump is walking back down to the fork in the road that the Democrats took. And when he gets back to where we were he has different plans for the future. Unlike the Democrats four years ago, Trump won a decisive victory. And has grounds for saying he has a mandate to make changes.

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A world of misperceptions

As Trump looks at foreign relations and the US budget and US priorities, he sees many things that are the legacy of times gone by. Europe should be able to stand on its own two feet more and bear its one defense burden. One of the reasons Ukraine was invaded was that Russia saw German unwillingness to up its NATO contribution and read that as Germany losing its commitment to NATO. Russia and Germany were trading even more, including German dependence on Russian oil. Russia thought if it invaded Ukraine, Germany’s mercantilist ties to Russia would hold sway and Germany would leave NATO. Russia was wrong. Germany did not want to contribute more to NATO because it viewed NATO as unnecessary, not as unimportant, and to them paying int NATO was a waste of money…oops. Germans were trading with Russia a great deal and saw the Russians as an ordinary nation that would never invade another. Both Germany and Russian made misjudgments. Obama and Trump both had urged Germany to spend more money in NATO. Germany preferred to pay down debt. Germany’s reluctance to step up its own contributions played a part in the invasion of Ukraine. Had Germany listened to Obama and Trump, Russia may not have been emboldened. The error was as bad as Bidens poor defense of Ukraine and his obvious weaknesses.

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Summing up

This essay only scratches the surface. There is so much to write about here. But hating Trump is not going to get you anywhere. He seems to be more right than wrong although his policies are disruptive. I have long argued that he US has 33 straight years (and all intervening quarters) of current account deficits. In a free floating foreign exchange system currency values are supposed to adjust to reestablish current account balance. That has not happened in the US in over three decades. Looking at the tariff system simply makes sense. Yes, the dollar is the reserve unit, but we should have no sense that the dollar is at a fair value given all the reserve accumulation foreign governments and central banks have done and are doing. Buying and holding dollars when a country has a surplus with the US keeps the dollar from weakening.

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One thing that has not been mentioned is what all this means for US policy in Asia, for Japan, and for Taiwan. Taiwan has been watching the US in Ukraine very closely. Trump’s push to bring chip-making facilities to the US is another way to make Taiwan less economically critical to the US. Is that part of the plan? Trump has a lot of balls in the air and the more there are the harder it is to keep track of all of them.

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But give Trump his due. There is nothing he is doing that is dictatorial. ?Biden made vaccine mandatory and then threatened your freedom and ability to work if you did not take the vaccine the did not stop the spread, or give you immunity, and did not lessen the impact of Covid if you got it according to any scientific study. A new bit of information from the Mayo Clinic shows that among its people those who got more Covid shots also got more Covid.

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Trump admittedly is an unpleasant person. But I am not making him my best friend. I am supporting him in fixing the country. And he seems to be addressing real problems that others either ignored or made worse. Hating Trump? I don’t get it.

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