The Reality of Reliable Energy: Lessons from the First Winter Weather Event of 2025

On January 6, the middle U.S. faced its first real winter blast of the season, putting the region’s energy infrastructure to the test.

No surprises here: natural gas, coal, and nuclear power reliably met the majority of electricity needs across major grids like PJM, MISO, ERCOT, and SPP.

These dispatchable generation resources provided 89% of the power during peak evening demand around 7 pm EST, while wind energy, even in the traditionally “windy” Plains states only contributed 8%. The contrast in performance underscores the critical role of dependable energy sources during extreme weather and raises important questions about the future of U.S. energy policy.

The Challenges of Wind and Solar

The January cold front revealed a well-documented limitation of renewable energy: intermittency. Despite high installed wind capacity in states like Texas, Oklahoma, and the Dakotas, the capacity factor for wind in ERCOT fell below 20% as the front moved through and winds subsided. Solar power faced its own winter challenges, with reduced daylight hours, lower sun angles, and snow coverage in northern regions curtailing its effectiveness.

Simply put, renewables struggled to meet demand when it mattered most. This underscores the need for energy policy to account for the variability of wind and solar and the reality that these resources alone cannot shoulder the load during high-demand periods.

Dispatchable Resources: The Backbone of Grid Reliability

Natural gas, coal, and nuclear power proved once again why they remain indispensable:

• Consistency: These resources operate 24/7, regardless of weather conditions.
• Scalability: They can ramp up production to meet surges in demand, such as those seen during extreme cold.
• Robust Infrastructure: The existing fuel supply chains and delivery mechanisms for these energy sources ensure dependable performance under stress.

The Morning Outlook: A Test of Resilience

The cold overnight temperatures and early morning hours following the front presented an even greater challenge. Energy demand for heating spiked while wind generation remained low, placing a heavier burden on dispatchable resources. This scenario serves as a stark reminder that without these reliable energy sources, the grid would face heightened risks of blackouts during such critical periods.

Rethinking U.S. Energy Policy

The emphasis on renewables in current energy policy has led to the premature retirement of coal and nuclear plants and restrictions on fuel development and delivery. While the transition to cleaner energy sources is an important goal, these policies must be balanced with the need for grid reliability.

Key considerations include:

1. Avoid Premature Retirements: Shuttering coal and nuclear plants without securing reliable replacements risks leaving the grid vulnerable during extreme weather events.
2. Strengthen Natural Gas Infrastructure: As a bridging fuel, natural gas is vital for providing both reliability and scalability, complementing renewables when they falter.
3. Champion a Balanced Energy Mix: A diverse portfolio of energy sources, including renewables, natural gas, coal, and nuclear, ensures the grid can meet demand year-round.

Lessons for Policymakers

Extreme weather events like this recent winter storm highlight the need for energy policies grounded in practicality. Policymakers must:

• Invest in maintaining and upgrading dispatchable generation facilities.
• Prioritize reliable fuel supply chains, including pipelines for natural gas.
• Recognize the operational realities of renewables’ intermittency and the critical role of dispatchable resources in ensuring grid stability.

Where Do We Go from Here?

The events of January 6 are a wake-up call for U.S. energy policy. Families and businesses depend on abundant, affordable, and reliable power, not just when the sun shines or the wind blows. As the nation transitions to cleaner energy, policymakers must ensure the grid’s foundation remains strong. Dispatchable resources like natural gas, coal, and nuclear are not relics of the past; they are essential for a resilient energy future. Balancing innovation with reliability will safeguard the U.S. economy and quality of life, even during the coldest winter nights.

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