Reality may be different than it appears

Hey there,

This is proof that what I said in my last newsletter is precisely like that: when I’m in Aspen, I have more headspace to think, plan, research, and write.?When I’m in this headspace, some magic unfolds… see it below.?It gets a bit geeky, deep, and intense, but I think it’s a beneficial and insightful conversation to have.

The idea for this newsletter came to me while reading a recent article entitled,?48 Percent of Teens “Unsure” or “Not Interested in” the Metaverse?by?@thefashionlaw?which stated that the?Piper Sandler’s “Taking Stock with Teens” report?conducted a study of 17,000+ teens.

@thefashionlaw

As I often do with articles that pique my interest, I shared it with my team at Mate House on our internal Slack channel I aptly entitled?“Golden-Nuggets.”?For some time now, as you may know by reading my?newsletters, the rapid-pace evolution of the Metaverse, especially in relation to fashion, is a subject I try to stay on top of.?

This article states?“what might be the most striking takeaway (from this study), less than half of teens seem bullish on the rise of the metaverse, with 48 percent saying that they are either “unsure” or “not interested” in the metaverse despite rising efforts by brands – ranging from Nike and Adidas to Gucci and Balenciaga – to cater to and connect with younger consumers in this space.”?Christina Bifano, our Head of Research at?Mate House, had also read the referenced study but from a different source and?quickly pointed out that the article had some serious discrepancies:

1.?The study was conducted with?7,100 U.S. Teens,?not?17,000+ teens.?Also, not stating clearly that this study was conducted in the USA leads us to believe it was a global study.?*My colleague wrote this to them on Instagram, and they have since corrected this information.

2.?This poll was taken in the spring of 2021, a full year ago. The article leads us to believe the poll itself is recent??

3.?The article also did not mention that the regional breakdown of people involved in the study?was: 45% in the South, 22% in the West, 21% in the Midwest, and 12% in the Northeast of the USA.

These inaccuracies set off the red flag that inspired me to write this newsletter.?Why is this important to me??My intention is?not to criticize The Fashion Law’s or Piper Sandler’s work but to bring awareness to articles like this that could affect how we understand youth trends and consumer engagement in the metaverse.?

Taking numbers at their face-value because a trusted source touched on them in an article is reckless, but?more than once, I have seen consultants using this kind of data to advise clients…which I find irresponsible, to say the least.?As a result, brands who were hedging their bets and gearing up to take a dip into the phygital world may think they need to slam on the breaks. For that reason,?I want to talk to you about the importance of analyzing and thinking critically about data when you see it used like this, especially when it creates a buzz, as this study did.?

The fact that they polled only American youth and within this pool, more people from the south than from the northeast is essential to highlight.?When discussing the near-term future and who will be shaping it, it's best to consider how influence is dispersed: trends can travel from Bangkok to NYC faster than they do from NYC to Albany, for example.?We know that Gen Zs preferred platform for social media is Tik Tok, which started in China, so if we want to know what, for example, youth in America will do next, it is essential to look globally.

Secondly, conducting research with over 7,000+ takes time, so Publishing the conclusions or results a year after a study begins is normal.?When it comes to retail fashion and digital trends, a poll like this may tell us what teens preferred at the time of the survey last year. Most people would agree that teens follow more fads and change their behaviors more frequently than older generations. One year in the physical world is like three (or more!) years in the Metaverse - new technologies grow exponentially in the digital realm, and a year-old study becomes ancient history!?

It’s not just teenagers who are fickle.?If we look at political polls, for example, people change their minds from when the poll is taken to the moment they tick the ballot box. Yet, for some reason, the general public seems to trust the numbers generated by quantitative research and is continuously surprised when they don’t meet their expectations.

The trends-driven approach I use to guide my clients dictates looking into the horizon, not in the rearview mirror.?This doesn’t mean I am trying to convince my clients to engage with their audience in the metaverse, but convey the need for them to understand their consumers and how and where they are engaging and will engage with all brands.?

Training session for?C&A

The three main methods of research we use at Mate House are field/street research, desk research, and expert interviews.?All consider qualitative research techniques, meaning “data is descriptive and regards phenomenon which can be observed but not measured.”?In layman's terms, it means?you emphasize what you can see as opposed to what numbers tell you.?

With the exciting innovations and critical insights discovered through these methods, agencies like?Mate House can help clients weave narratives with the potential to revitalize communication, products, and services season after season.?If you attended?my lecture at LAFS, or have taken my online course,?Using Trends As Your Thinking Partner, you should be familiar with how quantitative research tools can be used to detect patterns of change in design, culture, and consumer emerging expectations.

To circle back to the beginning of this newsletter, you may be surprised to know that I believe that the average 15-year-old from the south of the US is not as interested in the metaverse at the moment as we have been led to believe.?Where I disagree is that this data is relevant for us to understand how teens will interact with the metaverse in the near-term future.?To know this, we should be observing the activity of people who are shaping that future now.?Here’s a snippet from how I arrived at these conclusions using qualitative research methods.

1.?Field research:?As a professor at Istituto Marangoni Miami, which launched a?metaverse scholarship?last year, I have observed our students (aged 18+) increasingly interested in making the metaverse part of their daily lives and know this to be happening globally. They are soon-to-be professionals who understand that working in the metaverse is a swiftly-approaching reality for those in the world of fashion.?

2.?I did my own research on the topic and collected insights from experts.?There has been an incredible buzz around?Decentraland’s Metaverse Fashion Week.?Early adopters engaging here produced highly relevant feedback. Here is one of many positive yet realistic quotes I extracted from reading articles on that event.

“From the comfort of my bed, I could be a part of a Fashion Week that recorded 108,000 unique users. The graphics weren’t the best in showcasing actual garments and their details, but it was more about the experience itself, where you could immerse yourself in a virtual world with people from all over the globe. With Decentraland kicking off this event, we’re excited to see what the future holds for web3 in fashion, and vice versa.” --?THE FUTURE IS HERE: LOOK INSIDE DECENTRALAND'S METAVERSE FASHION WEEK,?YeEun Kim?for Hypebae?

Image from Metaverse Fashion Week

Here’s my big takeaway:

If you want to know about what will happen in a space as disruptive and expansive as the metaverse, look at the experiences and innovations that people with a global, future-forward mindset are excited about now, not numbers from one demographic or from the past.

Please be aware that I believe quantitative research - objectively collecting and analyzing numerical data - is a fantastic tool with obvious benefits. But polls and surveys?must be explored thoroughly and put in the proper context?for them to be most effective. I promise to elaborate more on how in my next newsletter.

I would love to hear your take on this hot topic, so reach out!