The Reality of Immigration and the Misguided Blame Game

The Reality of Immigration and the Misguided Blame Game

In recent months the narrative around immigration in the UK has shifted dramatically The conversation has been dominated by right-wing and populist voices, who tend to oversimplify the complexities of immigration and stoke fears among those who are apprehensive about unfamiliar people and cultures. These voices argue that the recent increase in protests and unrest is unrelated to racism or xenophobia, despite evidence to the contrary.

According to them, it’s not about “wrong colour” immigration or “wrong religion” immigration. They insist that the backlash isn’t even about work visa immigration—after all, they acknowledge, we need those people to fill critical gaps in our social, health, and care services, especially as we feel the impact of reduced immigration. But when we dig deeper into the facts, it becomes clear that this reframing is a convenient deflection from the true underlying issues.

The Impact of Reduced Immigration

Let’s start with the realities that are often glossed over. The UK’s social care system, the NHS, and other vital sectors have long relied on immigrant labour since its inception. These are not new revelations. The post-Brexit immigration policies, which have made it more difficult for low-skilled workers to enter the country, have led to chronic shortages in these sectors, along with agricultural workers. The social care sector alone faces a staffing crisis, with thousands of unfilled vacancies. The NHS is similarly struggling, with staff shortages exacerbating the challenges brought on by the pandemic. These sectors are heavily reliant on workers from abroad, and yet, the immigration policies that should support these vital needs are stifling the inflow of necessary labour.

As of 2024, the UK is grappling with severe staffing shortages in both the NHS and the adult social care sector, significantly impacting the quality and accessibility of essential services. The NHS faces a critical shortfall with approximately 130,000 vacancies, including over 47,000 in nursing roles alone. This shortage has surged by more than 30% since 2018, intensifying the strain on healthcare delivery. The consequences are severe: increased workloads for existing staff, longer patient wait times, and a growing reliance on costly agency staff, all of which further stretch the NHS budget.

Simultaneously, the adult social care sector is struggling with around 152,000 vacancies, slightly down from the 165,000 reported the previous year but still representing about 9.9% of all roles in the sector. The home care services are particularly affected, with vacancy rates as high as 13%. This shortage has led to reduced care hours, increased pressure on existing staff, and ultimately, diminished care quality for the elderly and vulnerable populations.

These intertwined crises highlight the urgent need for comprehensive workforce strategies across both sectors, focusing on improved recruitment, retention, and the overall appeal of careers in healthcare and social care. Without significant interventions, the UK will continue to face mounting challenges in meeting the healthcare needs of its aging population and managing the increasing demands on its services.

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The Economic Impact of Foreign Students on the UK: 2024 Update

Another overlooked factor is the significant economic contribution of foreign students. They are not just learners; they are vital cogs in the machinery that keeps many of our university courses afloat. Approximately 50% of funding for certain university courses comes from foreign students. However, due to tighter visa restrictions post-Brexit, the number of foreign students has declined sharply. This decline has had a direct impact on universities, many of which now face financial challenges that threaten their ability to maintain the quality of education.

Foreign students continue to be a cornerstone of the UK's higher education system, not only enriching the academic environment but also significantly contributing to the economy. However, recent trends, particularly post-Brexit visa restrictions, have led to a reduction in the number of international students, which has had a measurable impact on both universities and the broader economy.

Financial Contributions in 2024

As of 2024, the value of higher education exports remains significant, but the recent declines in international student numbers have begun to manifest more sharply in the economic landscape. The government’s 2024 projections estimate that the economic contribution of international students has dropped slightly due to the continued decline in enrolments, now contributing approximately ￡20 billion annually to the UK economy. This is a slight decrease from previous years, reflecting the impact of tighter immigration controls and more competitive international education markets.

Despite these challenges, international students still provide a net economic benefit. For instance, the total economic benefits generated by international students who started in the 2023/24 academic year are estimated to be around ￡38 billion, with the associated costs (including public services and subsidies) totalling approximately ￡4.5 billion. This results in a net benefit of around ￡33.5 billion to the UK economy. Although this figure is lower than previous estimates, it remains a crucial part of the UK’s financial framework, particularly in higher education.

Reduction in Student Numbers and its Impacts

Since 2021, there has been a sustained decline (20%) in international student numbers, with a further reduction of approximately 10% in 2023/24. This reduction has been driven by factors including stricter visa regulations, increased competition from countries like Canada and Australia, and ongoing uncertainties surrounding the UK's post-Brexit immigration policies.

This continued decline has exacerbated financial pressures on UK universities. With fewer international students, many institutions face budget shortfalls, which could lead to cuts in courses, staff reductions, and potentially lower educational standards. Universities that rely heavily on international tuition fees are particularly vulnerable, as these fees often subsidize research, infrastructure, and domestic student programs.

The broader economic impact is also significant. The reduction in foreign students means fewer expenditures on housing, food, transport, and other living costs, which previously supported local economies across the UK. The diminished student population also impacts industries such as retail, hospitality, and tourism, which benefit directly from the spending of international students and their families.

Long-term Consequences and Policy Recommendations

The long-term consequences of this trend could be profound. The UK risks losing its competitive edge in the global education market, which has traditionally been a major soft power tool and a driver of economic growth. Moreover, the reduction in international students could lead to a less diverse and globally connected academic environment, potentially reducing the quality of education for all students.

To counter these trends, the UK needs to revisit its immigration policies, making them more welcoming and supportive of international students. This could include streamlining visa processes, offering more post-graduation work opportunities, and actively promoting the UK as a top destination for higher education. Additionally, expanding scholarships and financial aid for international students could help attract talent from around the world, ensuring that the UK remains a leader in global education.

To put things in perspective, foreign students are a net asset to the country, and while foreign students continue to contribute significantly to the UK economy, the decline in their numbers poses a serious risk to both the higher education sector and the broader economy. Strategic policy adjustments are essential to reverse this trend and sustain the positive impact that international students have on the UK.

The Real Issue: Boat Crossings and Brexit

So, if the riots and unrest aren’t about racism, religion, or even economic migration, what is driving them? The truth is, much of the frustration stems from the government’s inability to effectively manage illegal immigration, particularly the issue of boat crossings across the Channel.

The UK’s exit from the European Union has left the country without a clear returns policy, which was previously facilitated by agreements within the EU, such as the Dublin Regulation. Now, without the ability to return migrants to the first safe country they entered, the UK is grappling with how to handle the influx of people arriving via small boats.

It’s important to recognize that many of those who cross the Channel in these dangerous journeys are genuinely seeking asylum. According to Home Office data (93% of boat people claim asylum), a significant proportion of these arrivals are granted asylum (77% are granted asylum) after their claims are processed, underlining that many of these individuals are fleeing genuine persecution and hardship. However, this reality is often overshadowed by the loud, populist rhetoric that frames all such arrivals as illegal and unwelcome.

The Inconvenient Truth

What we are left with is an inconvenient truth: if the UK’s current immigration woes are not about the colour of someone’s skin, their religion, or their willingness to work in jobs that many British citizens avoid. It’s about a system that is struggling to adapt post-Brexit, a government that has failed to manage borders effectively, and a society that is being misled by oversimplified and often misleading narratives.

The challenge now is to move beyond these simplistic and divisive narratives. We need to acknowledge the vital contributions of immigrants across all sectors, recognize the complexities of modern migration, and develop policies that address these realities rather than scapegoating the most vulnerable. If we fail to do so, we risk further division and unrest, all while neglecting the real issues that need our attention.

In this charged atmosphere, it’s more important than ever to ground our discussions in facts rather than fear, and to approach immigration not as a problem to be solved, but as a reality to be managed with compassion, pragmatism, and a clear understanding of the challenges and opportunities it presents.

The Legal Reality ?

before Brexit, the United Kingdom had the right to return immigrants to France and other European Union countries under the Dublin Regulation. The Dublin Regulation is an EU law that determines which member state is responsible for examining an asylum application submitted by someone seeking international protection under the Geneva Convention.

Key Points About the Dublin Regulation:

1. Primary Responsibility: Under the Dublin Regulation, the first EU country that an asylum seeker enters is usually responsible for processing their asylum claim. This meant that if an asylum seeker entered the EU through France, and then travelled to the UK to claim asylum, the UK could return the individual to France to have their application processed there.
2. Returns to Other EU Countries: The Dublin Regulation allowed the UK to return asylum seekers not only to France but to any other EU country through which they had passed before arriving in the UK. This helped to prevent "asylum shopping," where individuals might try to choose the country in which to apply for asylum based on where they believed they had the best chance of being accepted.
3. Post-Brexit Changes: After Brexit, the UK is no longer a part of the Dublin Regulation. This has complicated the process of returning migrants to EU countries. The UK has been seeking to negotiate bilateral agreements with individual EU states to manage the return of migrants, but these have not been straightforward or comprehensive.
4. Impact of Dublin Regulation Loss: The end of the UK's participation in the Dublin system has raised concerns about how the UK will manage asylum applications, particularly those involving migrants who travel through multiple countries before reaching the UK. Without Dublin, the UK lacks a clear legal framework for returning migrants to other European countries.

Conclusion:

Before Brexit, the Dublin Regulation provided the UK with a mechanism to return migrants to France and other EU countries. However, since leaving the EU, the UK no longer benefits from this system, leading to challenges in managing and processing asylum applications from migrants who enter the country via other EU states.

The Law:

The Dublin Regulation, which determines the EU member state responsible for examining asylum applications, is not the work of a single lawyer or a small group of drafters but rather a result of collaborative legislative processes within the European Union. This regulation has evolved over time, with multiple iterations and amendments, and it involves input from various legal and policy experts across EU institutions.

Development Process:

1. European Commission: The Dublin Regulation originated as part of the EU's broader effort to create a Common European Asylum System (CEAS). The European Commission, particularly its Directorate-General for Migration and Home Affairs, plays a significant role in drafting and proposing such regulations. The Commission's legal services, along with input from member states and various stakeholders, are responsible for the initial drafting and revision of the text.
2. Council of the European Union and European Parliament: The draft regulation is then reviewed, amended, and negotiated by the Council of the European Union, which represents the member states, and the European Parliament. Both institutions involve legal advisors, policy experts, and politicians who contribute to the final text.
3. Legal Advisors and Experts: Numerous legal advisors, including those from the European Legal Service and external legal experts in EU law, contributed to the drafting process. These professionals ensure that the regulation aligns with existing EU treaties and international obligations, such as the Geneva Convention.

Evolution of the Dublin Regulation:

The Dublin Regulation was first adopted in 1990 as the Dublin Convention, and it has since been updated several times:

• Dublin I (1997): The original convention was incorporated into EU law.
• Dublin II (2003): It replaced the Dublin Convention, with revisions to improve the system's efficiency.
• Dublin III (2013): Further modifications were made to enhance protection for asylum seekers and improve the system's fairness.

Conclusion:

While specific names of the individual lawyers involved in drafting the Dublin Regulation may not be publicly documented due to the collaborative nature of EU legislation, the process involved contributions from various legal experts within the European Commission, the European Legal Service, and other EU institutions. The regulation is a product of collective efforts aimed at managing asylum claims within the European Union.

Britain’s Engagement

And Yes, British lawyers and legal experts were involved in the drafting and negotiation process of the Dublin Regulation, as the UK was an active member of the European Union at the time. The involvement of British lawyers would have been part of the broader participation of the UK's representatives in EU legislative processes.

How British Lawyers Were Involved:

1. UK Representation in the EU: The UK, like other EU member states, was represented in the Council of the European Union, which plays a key role in shaping EU legislation. British government lawyers, along with diplomats and civil servants, would have been involved in negotiations and discussions around the drafting of the Dublin Regulation. This involvement would include contributing to the legal text, negotiating specific provisions, and ensuring that the regulation aligned with UK interests.
2. Legal Advisors and Experts: Legal advisors from the UK, particularly those from the UK's permanent representation to the EU (UKREP), would have been engaged in the process. These legal experts work alongside representatives from other member states to draft, revise, and finalize EU legislation, including regulations like the Dublin Regulation.
3. Consultation and Feedback: The drafting process for EU regulations typically involves consultation with national governments. The UK government, supported by its legal experts, would have provided feedback on draft versions of the regulation. British lawyers would have been involved in assessing the legal implications of the regulation for the UK and advising on any necessary amendments.

Context:

• The Dublin Regulation's Evolution: The Dublin Regulation has undergone several iterations, and British legal experts would have been involved in each phase as the UK was a member of the EU from the original Dublin Convention in 1990 until Brexit in 2020.
• EU Legislative Process: The creation of EU regulations involves input from legal professionals across the member states, including those in the UK, who contribute their expertise to ensure the regulations are legally sound and politically acceptable across the EU.

In summary, British lawyers played a role in the development of the Dublin Regulation, working within the framework of the EU's legislative process to help shape the regulation in a way that reflected the UK's legal and political interests at the time.

By voting for Brexit the UK made a supposedly, informed decision to trigger Article 50 and leave the EU, it also walked away from the legal protection of the Dublin Agreement without having any ability to return irregular immigrants to the EU country of arrival therefore creating a direct pass through route to the UK .

At best this was a negligent/incompetent oversight by a Brexit campaign driven by the spectre of unwanted uncontrolled immigration. The result is the inconvenient truth that they actually created the ‘Boats’ ?that they now want to ‘Stop’.

This extract is part of larger and more detailed analysis of The migrations to Britain and how we can make them positive again. which I created because I reflected on the the fact that in business we add new people to the company to grow our business and extend the reach and ability to service our customers in a country we do exactly the same to grow and expand our abilities as a nation. Now the Commonwealth stretches across the whole of the world touching 1/3 of the worlds population.

Read?"Migration: The Making of a Country, The Shaping of a Nation" for the complete journey of 12,000 years