The reality for the future of business and pleasure travel

While some in the industry are speculating that global travel will return by Spring 2021, that's wishful thinking and it's just not realistic. Businesses who rely on the travel industry need to be honest with themselves, their staff, and their clients, and plan accordingly.

The reality for the future of international business and pleasure travel is that countries will likely not allow travellers to enter or exit without showing proof of receiving both doses of the Covid-19 Vaccines, which the UK's Healthcare Secretary, Matt Hancock hinted at on BBC News this morning for the direction the U.K. is heading before lockdown is lifted.

This news comes after the World Health Organisation has announced that even after both doses of vaccines have been received, it is still possible to carry and spread the Coronavirus to non-vaccinated people, and the only real way of stopping the spread of the virus is to vaccinate every single person. Not good news for anti-vaxxers.

Close to 10,000 travellers are still arriving into the U.K. every single day, even during a strict lockdown, and Prime Minister, Boris Johnson will make a decision today to discuss implementing a rule that all arriving travellers to the U.K. must quarantine at airport hotels, for up to 10-days. Under these measures, travellers will be required to pay for their 10-day hotel stay. Although the scheme likely wouldn't come into effect for 72-hours, the Home Secretary and Health Secretary are eager to tackle the threat of more variants entering the U.K. with immediate effect.

For business travel, regional and domestic travel will likely rebound first as companies will want to resume in-person client and sales meetings as soon as they safely can, and some of this will be driven by what competitors are perceived to be doing and not wanting to 'miss out.' Realistically though, international business travel will likely never return to pre-pandemic numbers now that decision-makers have realised how much they can achieve remotely on a global scale. According to a recent survey by McKinsey, travel managers are expecting business travel spending in 2021 to be only half what it was in 2019, and in 2022 it will still only be 75% compared to 2019.

For international pleasure travel, analysts are forecasting that the industry could take up to three-years to recover, whereas domestic tourism in 2021 is expected to increase to 140% of what it was in 2019, with camping and caravan clubs already reporting 90% bookings for July to September, and motorhome sales have increased exponentially across the U.K. This proves that people still have a desire to travel, but due to factors mentioned below, they are venturing closer to home.

To put some science behind these predictions, it helps to first understand the U.K.'s vaccine plan. At present, the U.K. government aims to offer vaccines to 40 million people by mid to late May, including over-50s, healthcare workers and those most at risk. It estimates that realistically the rest of the U.K. population will not be vaccinated until mid to late September, barring any unforeseen delays.

Referring back to the news that travellers will likely need to prove having both doses of the vaccine before leaving the U.K., and/or entering other countries, it stands to reason that if a vast majority of travellers from the U.K. will not be fully vaccinated until the end of September, then it should not be surprising to learn that travel won't start to recover until at least the fourth quarter of 2021.

The U.K. has also extended council lockdown powers until July 17th, and is looking to extend the current furlough scheme beyond the end of April, suggesting that lockdown measures, including unnecessary travel, could be imposed until the height summer.

When you consider that 2.3 million people are unemployed in the U.K., estimated to increase to 2.6 million by April, and a further 10 million people on furlough; it's not difficult to see why people have a lot less disposable income or savings to spend on international travel. In addition, a recent Which? survey showed that 57% of Brits won't travel overseas in 2021 due to Covid-19 travel fears.

While I understand the need and the want to focus on the positive messaging around the travel industry, the facts speak for themselves, and while organistations are suffering financially trying to hold on to their people and assets, making accurate and intelligence-led predicitons now will likely avoid further losses in the future.

As an industry, we have a lot to do to promote positive messaging around travel to instil confidence back into travellers and organisations, and to ensure the right travel safety training, travel insurance, and medical assistance is available when travellers need it most.