A Realist's Manifesto: It's Time to Embrace the Stockdale Paradox

Admiral James Stockdale was the highest ranking US military officer held in the Hanoi Hilton for eight years, during the Vietnam War. During this time he kept in horrendous conditions, endured torture, carried the pressure of command of soldiers, all this with no known release date. 

His story was popularized in Jim Collins’s book, “Good to Great.”

How did he endure?

“I never lost faith in the end of the story, I never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which in retrospect, I would not trade.”

Who didn’t survive? 

First, the pessimists. They lost hope and the moment that hope was lost, they perished.  But, also the optimists.  According to Stockdale, “[T]hey were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken heart. This is a very important lesson. You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end–-which you can never afford to lose–-with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”

So, who made it through? The realists. 

The realists find a way to hold out for hope while also confronting the darkest parts of the situation. 

As much as I aspire to be an optimist, my nature is pessimism. I think the world is going to end every other week. Its been helpful in this current Covid-19 reality, but I’m also trying to hold out for hope.  We have to survive… right? The world may never be the same, but we’ll still be around. At least, that’s what I try to tell myself.

Its dumbfounding to me that that so many people are still in denial of how bad this is.  This isn’t optimism though. This is a fourth category, that I call: blind arrogance. It’s a belief that what is happening fundamentally can’t be real, and that it will never happen to me.   It’s what keeps college students on beaches in Miami.  Its what drove some of our neighbors to have a party in their backyard last weekend (Seriously!). And it’s what is going to cause the death of so many more people. 

It’s time for all of us to be realists. Or if you need a psychological term for it, it's cognitive dissonance. This is the ability to hold two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values together, and confront the stress that comes with this competing tension.  Try it out.     

• This can’t be as bad as it sounds. This could be worse than it sounds.      
• We’re the US, we have the best doctors and nurses in the world- they will fix this. We’re the US, we have one of the most inequitable and complicated health care systems in the world- no matter who works there, we are not ready for this.          
• We will get through this. We are all going to die.

This is a fun exercise. No, it’s actually not. Realism is a punch to the gut. Yet, I believe it is the only thing that will serve us right now. 

As a personal example: My wife is a pediatrician working at a local hospital. She’s essential personnel and is taking care of new moms. Imagine being a mother giving birth in a hospital right now. Its terrifying.  Now, imagine being a mother who gave birth and has tested positive for Covid-19. You can’t touch your baby except to breastfeed, and you have to wear a mask.  Reality bites.   

We heard two days ago that one of the moms she was to see had tested positive for Covid-19.  In my mind, I said, she will be ok. She’s very careful. The hospital has protocols. That’s my optimism.  But, I also thought: She’s 100% going to get this and then one or both of us is going to get sick.  That’s my pessimism. 

Our realism made us talk about what to do to be safe regardless of hospital protocols. We created a process for her to come in a side door of our house, change clothes and put them directly in the washing machine and take a shower. We made a plan to coordinate via text so I could move our 15-month old to a room where she wouldn’t see or touch my wife until she was out of the shower.  

And then we sat on the couch and held each other a little tighter and closer. The next morning when she left the house I felt like I was saying goodbye to her forever.   

A Realist’s Manifesto

Here’s what’s the realist in me is telling me to do:      

• Listen closely to the people that are seeing what is going on firsthand. For me these are the nurses and doctors who are living and, tragically, breathing on the front lines of the pandemic.
• Stay current on the research on Covid-19. We’re learning new things about it every day.
• Play the “what if” game. What if we are on lock down, not for weeks, but for months, or even a year?  What if we have no income for months, or even a year? What if the stock market completely collapses?
• Have the “What happens when one of us gets sick” conversation with your partner.  Make a quarantine plan.
• Talk to the older people in your family and friends circle about what their plans are if they get sick.
• Conduct a financial audit and start conservative spending now. 
• Get your will in order.
• Make virtual dates, have virtual movie nights, Facetime with your friends and family daily, plan indoor adventures with your kids, write the book you always wanted to write, reinvent yourself.

The mantra of the realist is: When the experts keep saying they haven’t seen anything like this before, assume it could be worse and better than anyone thinks.

I am terrified, but I am also hopeful.  And I’m planning accordingly.