The Real Threat from China? A Long Term Orientation

Geert Hofstede’s cultural dimensions, while not exactly loved by everyone, do give a glimpse into the thought process of different national cultures when it comes to issues like risk aversion, preferences for meritocracy and long term versus short term orientation, etc. The dimension that is most interesting to consider as it relates to China is their long term orientation. As a country with a long history and a fair amount of patience, China has been making plans for their own global ascendancy for many years. It seems as if only now are those in the western world really beginning to take notice. 

For some China scholars, China is in the midst of a 100 year plan to replace the US as the lead nation in a new world order. Although scholars disagree on the exact date of inception, let’s say that the program was launched around 1953 by Mao Zedong (beginning with Mao’s first five year plan begun in 1953 to boost industrial development and second five year plan begun in 1958 called the Great Leap Forward). This would place the completion date at 2053. 

The strategy is based on military, political and economic development. While China may not always be the largest nation in terms of population (India is set to overtake China in 2022), they already possess the world’s largest military force in terms of number. Granted, they are currently behind in terms of military technology (airpower, sea power, weaponry). Still, they have been expanding with new carriers, cruisers, and aircraft with significant increases in the military budget. In addition, a denuclearized Korean peninsula would be quite advantageous for them.

Economically, China now has the second largest nominal GDP and its per capita GDP has increased from $132 in 1962 to $6894 in 2016. While still far below the US in terms of per capita GDP, the average annual rate of growth continues to be among the highest in the world.

Politically, China has been expanding their influence around Europe, Asia, Africa as well as Central and South America. A few years ago, China embarked on a major economic development program, One Belt One Road initiative, planning the build out of infrastructure along land and sea corridors from China to Europe affecting nearly 60 countries. This infrastructure emphasis has also impacted elsewhere in Africa and across the Atlantic to South America. China is becoming the go-to nation for infrastructure development.

Militarily, economically, politically, it seems like China is making some solid progress. Perhaps not everyone believes that there really is a 100 year plan, however, it is clear that China has been very methodical about their military, economic and political progress. Five year plans, twenty year plans, or a hundred year plan, China’s patience and long term orientation is definitely something to think about and probably to worry about.