?? Real State of India’s Economy in 2025: A Decade of Decline Under Modi

?? Economic Growth: Stagnation & Debt Burden?

- Global Comparisons: Bangladesh overtook India in GDP per capita (2019), now at $3,000 vs. India’s $2,480 (2024).?

- Debt Crisis: Government debt (central + states) hit 83% of GDP (2024). IMF warns it could reach 100% by 2027-28 if shocks persist.?

- Investment Drought: Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) fell to 29% of GDP (2024), down from UPA’s 35.8% peak (2007).?

?????? Unemployment Crisis: Informalization & Gender Disparity?

- Female Workforce: Only 16% of women hold regular salaried jobs (2024). Rural female labor participation rose to 41.7%, but 67% are self-employed in low-wage farm roles.?

- Education Paradox: Graduates face 29.1% unemployment (ILO, 2024) due to skill mismatches and declining education quality.?

- Urban Exodus: Post-COVID, 56 lakh workers returned to agriculture, worsening disguised unemployment.?

???? Income Inequality: A New "Billionaire Raj"?

- Wealth vs. Welfare:?

? - Billionaires’ Wealth: Grew 41% in 2024 (Forbes), while 34% of Indians survive on <?100/day (Consumption Survey).?

? - Corporate Tax Cuts: ?1.45 lakh crore revenue loss (2019) vs. 0% relief for middle-class income tax.?

- Wage Stagnation:?

? - Construction Workers: Real wages fell 3% (2021–23).?

? - Salaried Class: Monthly earnings dropped from ?12,100 (2012) to ?10,925 (2022) after inflation.?

???? Manufacturing: PLI Failure & Export Collapse?

- Production-Linked Incentive (PLI): Only 5 sectors (e.g., electronics) saw partial success; 80% of mobile exports rely on imported components.?

- Export Share: Fell from 18% (2013) to 6.8% (2024) of manufacturing sales.?

- SME Carnage: 24 lakh MSMEs shut (2015–2022), wiping out 81 lakh jobs.?

???? Trade & Investment: Reliance on China & Capital Flight?

- Import Surge:?

? - Chinese Imports: Up 83% since 2019 (vs. 17% export growth).?

? - Critical Sectors: 70% APIs (pharma raw materials) and 90% solar panels imported from China.?

- Wealth Exodus: 21,300 millionaires left India (2022–2025), draining capital and trust.?

???? Erosion of Welfare: Hunger & Healthcare?

- Malnutrition: 38% of children stunted; 17% severely underweight (Poshan Tracker, 2024).?

- NFSA Exclusion: 10 crore Indians denied rations due to outdated 2011 census data.?

- Healthcare Cuts: Budget slashed to 0.27% of GDP (2024) – lowest in South Asia.?

?????? Agrarian Distress: Climate & Policy Failures?

- Climate Shocks: 2023–24 farm growth plummeted to 1.4% due to erratic monsoons and heatwaves.?

- Crop Insurance Flop: PM Fasal Bima Yojana covered only 3.12 crore farmers (2024); claims delayed by 6–8 months.?

- Input Cost Surge: Fertilizer prices up 300% since 2020; MSP hikes lag inflation by 50%.?

???? Inflation: Fuel Taxes & Household Desperation?

- Petrol Politics: Excise duty on diesel up 343% since 2014; contributes ?2.73 lakh crore/year to govt coffers.?

- Gold Loans: NPAs surged 30% in 2024 as families pawn assets for essentials.?

- Rupee Fall: ?86.6/USD (2024) eroded import power; forex reserves cover just 8 months of imports.?

???? Crony Capitalism: Adani’s Shadow Over Institutions?

- Defense Deals: Adani secured 6 major contracts (2020–24) in drones, missiles, and naval tech without prior experience.?

- PSU Exploitation: SBI wrote off ?2.97 lakh crore (2014–24); 74% haircut on loans to Adani-acquired firms.?

- Electoral Bonds: 56 ED/CBI raids on 41 firms preceded ?1,853 crore donations to BJP.?

???? Data Suppression: A Pattern of Denial?

- Census Delay: 2021 Census postponed to 2025, disrupting welfare targeting and electoral boundaries.?

- Ghost Reports:?

? - Consumer Survey: 2017–18 data hid first consumption decline since 1973.?

? - Jobs Data: PLFS 2017–18 unemployment report (6.1%) released only after 2019 elections.?

- Methodology Tricks: Highway length inflated by counting lanes, not roads; GDP back series altered to downplay UPA growth.?

???? The Road Ahead: Urgent Reforms?

1. Jobs Over GDP: Shift focus to labor-intensive sectors (textiles, food processing).?

2. Universal Social Security: Expand MGNREGA to urban areas; pension reform.?

3. Tax Justice: Reinstate wealth tax; reduce GST on essentials.?

4. Farm Revival: Legal MSP guarantee; climate-resilient crop investments.?

5. Data Integrity: Fast-track 2025 Census; depoliticize institutions like RBI and NSO.?

?GDP growth is projected to slow to 6.4% in 2024-25 from 8.2% the previous year. MSMEs, contributing 30% to the economy, face a ?20 trillion credit gap, limiting employment generation. Youth unemployment remains alarmingly high at 45.4%, driving emigration. Without targeted interventions, the budget risks exacerbating economic distress and hindering long-term national growth.

?“India’s demographic dividend is turning into a crisis. Without structural reforms, inequality will define our future.” – AICC Research.?

?Sources: AICC Research Report, NSSO, World Bank, Oxfam, CMIE, NCRB, RBI, Ministry of Agriculture.