The REAL reason why Putin might invade Ukraine

By Ron Aledo

Many so called analysts are trying to explain the key reason why Russia might invade Ukraine but they are missing it completely. From “fear to Democracy” to the absurd “want to recreate the old Soviet Union”, and many other nonsense those analysts just are showing up their ideological worldview without any real substance.

There are only two reasons why Putin might invade Ukraine. One is ideological and makes about 5% of it. The other is purely a military one and is about 95% of it.

The first reason is that Putin believes that Ukraine and Russia are the same country and Ukrainians and Russians the same people. ?He takes that from the old Kievan Rus, from the Czarist Empire, etc.?Putin obviously does not see Galicia (Austria-Hungary) nor the very large Polish area of Lviv that was also “added” to the “composite” country we now call Ukraine as part of what he understands in his mind is the “real” and original Ukraine of the Cossacks and St. Vladimir the Great.?He truly believes Ukraine is the Kievan Rus that gave birth to Russia and therefore the same country and people.

But the real key reason why Putin is risking everything by a possible invasion of Ukraine is the national defense strategy of Russia that sees an Ukraine part of NATO as an existential threat to Russia ‘s existence.

Russian national military defense plans are based on the assumption that enemy Western armies will invade Russia once again, just like Napoleon, Emperor Wilhelm, or Hitler.?For that reason Russia needs solid, large Buffer areas.?Having those Buffers, that geographical separation is an absolute must for Russia. In the north Russia has a buffer, called Finland. It keeps enemy offensive armies far away from St Peterburg and key areas in the north of the country. It also assures Russia the Baltic Sea will not become a NATO sea.

In the center Russia has a buffer called Belorussia. The Lithuanian/Russian border is too small to worry Russia too much. And Belorussia while under intimate coalition with Russia is not part of the country proper. Potential enemy armies are kept away at a safe distance in the center.

In the south Ukraine actually is the buffer that Russia needs. Russia cannot give up Ukraine to NATO as it considers it an existential threat. If Ukraine becomes part of NATO then the US, UK, Germany, Poland, etc., etc. can all deploy large number of troops with offensive weapons, take over control of the extremely important naval base of Sebastopol and further more put in mortal danger the industrial and energy heart of Russia in the Caucasus and the Volgograd areas. The Germans knew how important that areas were and that the Russian oil was there. That is why they desperately tried to take that area with the terrible battle of Stalingrad (Volgograd) during 1942-43.?Also if the US or UK place hypersonic missiles in Ukraine those can reach Moscow in about 5 minutes. Something that Russia can never ever accept. Because of Sebastopol, the oil and agriculture rich areas of Volgograd and the Caucasus, the potential missile threat, Russia sees an Ukraine member of NATO as an existential threat, as a Barbarossa operation part II that will succeed in destroying the country.

What does Russia want? Russia will not talk to the NATO Secretary General as they don’t want to talk to the figure head. They will only talk to the real power behind it, to the US. And Russia is demanding a written assurance that Ukraine will never ever be part of NATO. Regardless of the promise made to Ukraine by NATO in 2008 and the Ukraine vote to abandon their “neutrality” from December 2014, Russia wants in written a solid promise that Ukraine will not be part of NATO, now nor in the future. Period.

Obviously Biden will not agree to that as it will be bad publicity for him to accept that he was “forced” into submission by Putin. It will look bad in front of the eyes of the world. Also Biden will say that it goes against the principle of “Auto Determination” that he (says) defends. Curious that he defends it now, but when he was Vice President in 2014 he did not care that much for that “sacred” right as once the President of Ukraine rejected the commercial pact with Europe and signed one with Russia, Obama, he and Nuland made sure the government will no longer exist two months after that.

What can be done to prevent war? Perhaps a long-term moratorium to NATO membership. Not exactly what Putin wants, but perhaps something that will buy five more years without war.

Will the US or NATO fight the Russian military to defend Ukraine? No, absolutely not.?The US might send more troops to already NATO members countries in the area to give them a psychological “feel good” sensation but the US will not go to war with Russia for Ukraine. No one wants war with a Nuclear superpower with thousands of nuclear weapons and hypersonic gliders capable of delivering those any where in the world.

Will Russia invade a NATO country? No absolutely not. Invading a NATO country means nuclear war with the US. Putin is not stupid.

If nothing can be done to aver the worst-case scenario and war between Russia and Ukraine happens, then how and when will the war start? The war will begin with massive cyber-attacks. ?Russia will launch a great cyber-attack that will results in total incapacitation of the Ukrainian defense computers and communication systems.?Then air attacks to the Ukrainian air defense systems.?Once the air defenses and the Ukrainian Air Force are destroyed a larger air campaign will start.

This massive air campaign will destroy the Ukrainian land defenses. Finally, Russia will launch a land invasion with primary objectives to be the south/coast (up to Odessa), and Kiev city itself.?Taking Odessa will secure the coast, secure drinkable water to Crimea and facilitate the linking with Russian troops already in the Moldavian separatist region of Transnistria.

I don’t think that Russia will go beyond the Dnieper River but only in a few strategic points.

Taking Kiev will be important as a symbol that the capital has fallen. Also, Russia will be able to negotiate with the US the removal of its troops from Kiev in exchange for lifting most of the sanctions.?

I don’t think Russia will destroy much of the Ukrainian Navy but only those ships that might pose a direct threat to the Russian forces.

Russia will take home most of the weapons that the US and the UK, among others, sent to the Ukrainian forces. What they might not be able to take home, they most likely will destroy via air strikes. Before going back to the Russian side of the border, the Russian military will destroy the Ukrainian defense infrastructure beyond repair. The Donetsk area might become four times its current size.

As far as timing of the war, it should start by mid-February when heavy track vehicles can advance the most over the solid ice. It will not happen in late March nor April because of the mud associated with Spring.?Another possibility is that Putin might wait until the Winter Olympics are over in China, by the third week of February. Whatever happens let’s hope and pray it does not reach the worst case scenario and violence and war can be avoided.?