REAL ESTATE SURPASSES OIL AND GAS: BECOMES THIRD LARGEST SECTOR IN NIGERIA

Introduction

Nigeria's economy has experienced a significant shift, with the real estate industry emerging as one of its major player. It has now officially surpassed the oil and gas sector, becoming the third-largest contributor to Nigeria's GDP, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). This change highlights the diversification of the Nigerian economy and the growing significance of real estate.

Key Points from the NBS Report:

1. Real Estate's Rise: Nigeria's real estate sector has shown significant growth, contributing 5.20% to the country's GDP in Q1 2024. According to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics, the sector experienced a remarkable 46.52% growth in Q3 2024, outpacing the previous year's growth rate. Although the growth rate slowed slightly compared to the previous quarter, the sector still accounted for 5.43% of real GDP in Q3 2024. Notably, despite declining purchasing power, demand for Nigerian real estate remains on the rise.
2. GDP Rebasing: The NBS has successfully conducted a crucial rebasing exercise to update Nigeria's economic data. This exercise, the first since 2014, reflects the current economic structure and incorporates emerging sectors and activities, delivering a more accurate representation of Nigeria's economic output.
3. Sectoral Contributions: Emerging reports from the rebasing exercise reveal clear trends:

• Crop production has emerged as a leading sector in its own right. Having grown out of the broader agricultural sector, crop production has established itself as the nation's second-largest industry. This development underscores the vital role of agriculture in Nigeria's economy, which contributed a substantial 28.65% to the country's overall GDP in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024.
• Trade remains an important component of Nigeria's economy, consistently contributing significantly to the country's GDP. In the third quarter (Q3) of 2024, trade accounted for 14.78% of the GDP, underscoring its enduring importance to Nigeria's economic growth.
• The telecommunications sector has emerged as a distinct and vital component of Nigeria's economy, warranting its recognition as a standalone sector. Having previously been categorized under information and communication, telecommunications now stands as the fourth-largest sector, reflecting its remarkable growth and significant influence on the modern economy. In the third quarter of 2024, the information and communication sector, which encompasses telecommunications, contributed 16.35% to the country's GDP.

Factors Contributing to Real Estate Growth

The growth of the Real Estate sector can be attributed to several factors:

1. Increasing Population and Urbanization: Nigeria's rapidly growing population and increasing urbanization rates drive the demand for housing and infrastructure development.
2. Government Initiatives: Government policies and initiatives aimed at promoting affordable housing and infrastructure development have supported the growth of the real estate sector.
3. Private Sector Investment: Increased private sector investment in real estate projects, including residential, commercial, and mixed-use developments, has fueled the sector's expansion.
4. Diversification of Investment: As Nigeria faces volatility in the oil and gas sector, many investors are looking to diversify their portfolios. Real estate is increasingly seen as a more stable, long-term investment. This shift in preference has further bolstered the real estate market, especially in residential and commercial property development.

Impact of the Real Estate’s Rise

The real estate industry’s emergence as a leading sector in Nigeria brings several advantages and opportunities:

1. Economic Diversification: The growth of the real estate sector in Nigeria indicates a shift towards diversifying the economy, reducing its heavy dependence on oil and gas. This diversification is essential for the country’s economic sustainability, as it mitigates the adverse effects of fluctuations in global oil prices.
2. Job Creation: The expansion of the real estate sector has generated numerous job opportunities, not only within construction but also across various industries including technology, architecture, engineering, legal services, property management, real estate agencies, digital marketing, content creation, and interior design. The creation of these jobs enhances the local economy and contributes to lowering unemployment rates, particularly in urban areas.
3. Investment Opportunities: The growth of the real estate sector has opened up significant investment opportunities for both domestic and international investors looking to capitalize on a burgeoning market. Real estate investment trusts (REITs), property funds, mortgages, and private equity are increasingly becoming popular investment options.
4. Infrastructure Development: The rise in real estate development is driving substantial improvements in urban infrastructure, such as enhanced roads, transportation networks, and utilities. These upgrades have a multiplier effect, benefiting other sectors such as retail, services, and manufacturing, and contributing to a more connected and efficient economy.
5. Social Impact and Housing Development: In addition to commercial success, the real estate boom has a significant social impact, particularly in providing affordable housing solutions. The Nigerian government, in collaboration with private developers, is working towards addressing the housing deficit, which is estimated to be over 28 million homes. Real estate development can lead to better living conditions for millions of Nigerians.

What are the Challenges Facing the Real Estate Sector?

Despite its impressive growth, the real estate sector in Nigeria faces challenges such as:

1. High Construction Costs and Affordability: The cost of housing presents a major barrier for many Nigerians. The rise in prices of raw materials such as cement and steel, along with increased import duties, has caused construction costs to soar. This makes it difficult for developers to deliver affordable housing on a large scale.
2. Access to Financing: While the real estate market is thriving, obtaining affordable financing remains a significant challenge, especially for low- and middle-income buyers. Mortgage financing in Nigeria is still underdeveloped, and high interest rates on loans limit homeownership opportunities for many.
3. Infrastructure Deficit: Despite considerable improvements, many areas still lack essential infrastructure, including reliable electricity, water supply, and waste management systems. This shortfall complicates real estate development in certain regions.

As Nigeria continues to diversify its economy, the real estate sector is poised to play an increasingly vital role. The government's ongoing efforts to improve infrastructure and create affordable housing solutions are likely to stimulate further growth in this sector. Additionally, with the growing global demand for sustainable buildings and green real estate, new investment opportunities in eco-friendly developments are emerging.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Nigeria’s real estate sector is a force to be reckoned with. Its rise signals a new era of economic transformation and opportunity in a country that has long depended on oil. Whether you are an investor, developer, or policymaker, the real estate industry is a space to watch as it continues to shape Nigeria's future.

Best Regards,

Joan Obi-Okuhon,

Real Estate Advisor.