Real Estate Peak? Stock Market Cycle High??
?17-Year Cycle Timing Successive Peaks…
What Could Trigger (Future) Downturn??
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Could 4-Nation Cyclic Collision Magnify Cycles?
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Real Estate/Interest Rate Surge Peaking? Future Conflict Cycles Loom…
The 17-Year Cycle is a geophysical, geomagnetic cycle that strongly influences the ebb and flow of market & geopolitical speculation.? At the ‘peak’ of each cycle, sudden shifts have consistently taken hold… and taken the masses by surprise.?
2024/2025 is on track to repeat this uncanny cycle.
It has also timed interest rate and real estate peaks that are closely tied to these stock market tops.? And, there has been a recurring escalation of conflict between four primary nations - two on one side and two on the other.?
If this cycle remains as precise as it has been over the last century, there is a specific period in 2024 that could/should time the next ‘flare-up’… and potentially a BIG one!
To set the stage for this potential, the February 2024 INSIIDE Track reiterated and/or elaborated on this analysis…
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01-31-24 INSIIDE Track - “An accelerated advance in U.S. real estate ‘values’ was another of the distinct ramifications of 2020’s global pandemic.? That dovetails with last month’s discussion on various inflation gauges that also skyrocketed in the early-2020’s.? Both of those have been overreactions to the actions and reactions that occurred in 2020 (and other magnifying factors).
There are diverse reasons for these surges but their cyclicality is the focus of this publication.? In the case of real estate, Bonds were poised for the culmination of ~4-Year & 40-Year Cycles in mid-2020.
That ushered in the first paradigm shift, shocking economists out of the ’rates-will-stay-near-zero’ mantra that was repeated endlessly before then. ?The next shift could be underway now (subtly) and become more evident surrounding the next key Bond market cycle in 3Q 2024 (ideally July 2024).
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Tail Wagging the Dog...
In 2006 (highlighted in the movie ‘The Big Short’), real estate prices peaked after a multi-year run-up - at the same time non-performing loans were increasing but hidden in tranches of sub-prime loans.?
Could something like that occur again?
Of course not, argue many skeptics! ?
Many safety features were put in place to prevent a future repeat of that home-owning debacle.?
Cycle enthusiasts would agree.? Why?
Cycles rhyme… they don’t repeat.
So, what could be a strong parallel while remaining disguised enough that the masses do not recognize it.? How about a similar situation in rentals… which could unwind more rapidly.
Over the past decade, institutional home ownership (mostly rental properties) has grown significantly.? The rapid demand for rental properties, and coinciding increase in non-affordability for home ownership, fueled this surge with many less-proficient players entering the fray in recent years.?
As is often the case, those ‘johnny-come-latelys’ jumped into a frothy market with visions of grandeur - and never-ending escalation of rental income - dancing through their heads.?
That is usually when a bubble, or just a frothy bull market, peaks.?
And those that were last in, and often the least poorly capitalized, are often the first ones out - being forced to sell properties that didn’t match their lofty expectations.?
The resulting dip in prices, and/or delay in finding top-dollar renters, forces the second tier of over-leveraged owners to sell.?
Prices dip a little more as the more savvy investors (established REITs, etc.) are also recognizing this reality.? [The technical structure/outlook for stocks like xx, xxxx & xxx concur… projecting cycle lows in Feb/March ‘25.]
That is usually the time, midway through the duration of a declining cycle (though often still very near the high end of that developing decline), when a fundamental surprise hits the markets and suddenly prompts a more accelerated bout of selling… while creating some paradoxical reluctance for buyers.
With other markets focused on April/May 2024 for some validating moves, the coming months should be monitored closely for any signs of a ‘dip’ in real estate prices and/or shift in demand.? Other economic data could corroborate…
2024 Cycle Highs
All of the indexes are going through a lengthy topping process, reinforcing the potential for a repeat of the 17-Year Cycle (of stock market declines) in 2024/2025. That would perpetuate an uncanny cycle that timed 20 - 50% declines in 2007/2008, 1990, 1973/74, 1956 & 1939… coinciding with Middle East wars.
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Price and wave structure is reinforcing this potential.? Several indexes - including the DJTA (and DOWU, DOWC), Russell 2000 & S+P Midcap 400 - remain well below their 2021 peaks, reinforcing that this entire rally is a large-scale ’B’ wave bounce following the ’A’ wave decline that bottomed in June & Sept 2022.?
A similar - or larger - magnitude ’C’ wave decline should follow.
However, when viewed independently, this 17-Year Cycle is a much broader cycle and does not (yet) guarantee that a Jan/Feb 2024 peak - if that is fulfilled - would mark the ultimate peak for 2024.
Based on the 17-Year Cycle, another 25 - 35% (or larger) decline is expected in 2024/2025… once a peak is set.? That is the key point...
With recent phases of the 17-Year Cycle - in 2007 and 1990 - timing final peaks in the second half of the year, 2024 has the potential to resemble the 2-Year Cycle of 2018 if early-year price action corroborates… and if it is going to resemble 2007 & 1990.?
In that case, a 6 - 9-month peak was set in January 2018 and then retested in Sept/Oct 2018, before a sharper sell-off.? If something similar occurred in 2024, it would likely involve an intervening low in April/May ’24.?
[It is critical to remember the 2-Year & 17-Year Cycle merely provide a general backdrop for what can be expected.? Price action and technical indicators are used to validate, and/or negate, various aspects of those broad cycles and to hone the more specific outlook.]
In some respects, this could parallel the action seen in 1966 - 1970, when stocks initially peaked in January 1966 and then sold off into Sept ’66 (similar to January - Sept 2022).? They set an initial (’A’) wave low and then rallied into late-1968 when they set a ’B’ wave peak while retesting the 1966 high.?
That was followed by a ’C’ wave decline into June 1970 - when the DJIA dropped well below its September ’66 low.? Adding to the parallel, the Jan ‘66 peak was set ~4-years (49 months) from its preceding peak in Dec 1961.? Similarly, the January ‘22 peak was set ~4-years (48 months) from its preceding peak in January 2018.
Those peaks were set ~2.5 years (28 & 31 months) from preceding peaks in July 1959 & May 2018.? Those 1959 & 2018 peaks were initial 6 - 12 month peaks set after 9 - 10 year bull markets, reinforcing a series of parallels from the 1960’s.
These parallels and longer-term cycles will remain in focus throughout 2024, but specific price analysis should help to hone the outlook...
On a 1 - 2 year basis, the DJIA remains on track to ultimately reach its multi-year LLH (39,107/DJIA) - potentially in Jan/Feb ’24 - and fulfill a major upside objective created by its 2020 & 2022 lows.?
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That level is reinforced by a multi-year range target at 39,000 - 39,200/DJIA, incorporating the Sept/Oct ’22 lows near 28,700, the Feb ’22 & Oct ’23 ‘midway’ lows near 32,200, and the Aug ’21, Feb ’22 & July/Aug ’23 highs near 35,700/DJIA.?
When the DJIA closed above 35,700 in late-Nov ’23, it corroborated the late-October signals & reinforced projections for a surge above 39,000/DJIA.? A spike above 39,000/DJIA would also double the magnitude of the previous ~90-degree decline - from late-July into late-Oct ’23.?
The S+P 500 has related upside targets… 17,700 - 18,200/NQ is the equivalent range in the Nasdaq-100.? 6 - 12 month & 1 - 2 year traders and investors should be [reserved for subscribers]…
?Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index is fulfilling the overall outlook for a new rally into early-2024. Another peak is likely in 1Q ’24, fulfilling ~4-year & ~2-year low-low-high?? Cycle Progressions.?
More than any other index, this one has the most synergistic cycle convergence - in 1Q 2024.?
That is also a full ~17-Year Cycle from its 1Q ’07 peak (divided into an ~8.5-Year high-high-(high) Cycle Progression, recurring in 1Q ’24) which was exactly 17 years from its late-1989/early-1990 major peak… which was 17 years from its 1Q 1973 peak.?
?The Nikkei is also completing a textbook 5-wave sequence from its 1Q 2022 low - approaching the level where its wave ’5’ advance will possess ideal relationships to its wave ’1’ and ’3’ advances.?
It is also within striking distance of its SPR and yearly resistance for all of 2024 - starting at xx,xxx/NKY - after attacking its monthly LHR (extreme target)…?
Bonds & Notes are steadily confirming the October 2023 lows (when multiple cycles bottomed) and the onset of a significant economic shift as interest rates likely set a 6 - 12 month peak - and corresponding low in Bonds/Notes - at that time.?
Following that October ‘23 low, Bonds & Notes triggered successive buy signals, which catapulted them higher into year-end, mimicking the action of 4Q 2022 (when they also underwent a strong 2+-month rally)…
Similar to what occurred in 1Q 2023, a multi-month high has likely taken hold in Bonds but should later be exceeded after a ~couple months of congestion.? Bonds generated a 4-Shadow Signal with the recent 4Q ’23 rally by exceeding the magnitude of their previous 3 - 4 (similar duration) rallies… reinforcing that a future rally is still expected.?
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4Q ’23 ushered in what is likely to be a dramatic economic shift - fulfilling a ~17-Year Cycle of Fed Funds rate peaks (culminating recurring ~3-year advances in 1989, 2006 & 2023??) and lows in the Housing Affordability Index… as well as peaks in US median home prices in 1955, 1972, 1989, 2006 and… 2023(???).? [See pages 1 - 3 for more info.]…”? -- End February 2024 INSIIDE Track excerpt
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The 17-Year Cycle has maintained an uncanny impact on financial markets, interest rate swings, Middle East War Cycles and other seemingly unrelated events - all tied into a unique relationship between the magnetic forces of the Earth and Sun.?
Those magnetic forces - deep within the Earth - might have something to do with the great mystery of what drives the 17-Year cicada to remain underground for that period of time… and then emerge every 17 years.
This is not some esoteric or ‘hocus-pocus’ conjecture but rather an observation of a very natural - and very consistent - periodicity of a major influence on our world.? As stated in the above analysis, it has precisely timed serious stock market sell-offs in 1939, 1956, 1973/74, 1990, 2007/08… and is back to impact the markets in 2024/25.
A related cycle collision - between 4 antagonistic nations - could be the key!
It comes into play a little later in 2024… but has had a global-altering impact in each of its previous occurrences.
17-Year Cycle Broods
An overlapping phase of this stock market cycle (it appears to have two ‘broods’… a bit like the cicadas) was detailed in the late-1990’s (in INSIIDE Track publications) - projecting a major stock market top in 2000.?
That was linked to a Major low in 1932 and a major top in 1966 (34 years, or 2 phases of the 17-Year Cycle, apart) - as well as the intervening phases in 1949 & 1982/83 - creating a 34-Year low-high-(high; 2000) Cycle Progression.?
As published in 1999, that coincided with a host of other cycles - all projecting a multi-year top to take hold in the DJIA in January 2000… and usher in a devastating sell-off.
Stocks Topped in January ’00 & Plunged into Late-2002!
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In 2007, published analysis repeatedly described how the other ‘brood’ would create a Major, multi-year top in stocks in late-2007 and usher in another devastating sell-off…
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It also helped to pinpoint a major top in oil and energy prices…
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And it timed a Major, multi-year bottom in the Dollar - projecting a future low for 2026…
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The 17-Year Cycle Could Trigger Explosive Events in 2024 - 2026!
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The key is to be prepared! Specific analysis, targets, cycles & projections will continue to be published in related Weekly Re-Lay & INSIIDE Track publications.
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