Is a Real Estate Crash Imminent? What’s Really Happening with San Diego Real Estate.

By Sarah Ward, Realtor

Both the broadcast and internet news and are flooded with headlines currently asking if there will be a housing crash. Such headlines obviously generate lots of clicks and advertisements. But what is the real story? The increased interest rates from the low 4’s at the beginning of the summer to the mid 6’s currently definitely are having the intended effect of bringing down home prices a bit.

Buyers begin their search with the simple fact of how much they can afford based on their income, credit score, and debt levels. As interest rates increase, existing buyers are approved for decreasing amounts to purchase a property, causing home prices to decrease. Correspondingly, some buyers have headed to the sidelines waiting to see if rates will come back down soon.

Two years ago, in the run up to the presidential election between Trump and Biden, the market also slowed quite a bit, and stayed somewhat slow through the holidays; however, in early 2021, the market picked up again. I sense the same phenomena happening again, with the market slowing until early 2023. Hopefully, rates will dip a little by then maybe into the 5’s, bringing some buyers in off the sidelines.

As far as a market crash, I believe that to be unlikely. In 2008 to 2010, many mortgages were written with low standards and with little money down so that when prices fell, many homeowners walked away, resulting in thousands of homes hitting the market all at once. The fundamentals are quite different today with mortgages having recently been written with much higher standards and with most homeowners loaded up with equity.

Quality homes in good locations are definitely still selling to buyers hoping to refi later at a lower rate. But listings attracting many full price offers has waned. We are no longer in a seller’s market but are in more of an equilibrium market with fewer buyers making offers on a property. Also, the days to sell a property has increased to about 30 days on average county-wide. Real estate remains an excellent hedge against the continuing high inflation. An interesting note is that rates on owner-occupied properties are in the 6’s for those with excellent credit, but the rates on investment properties are in the 7’s to 9’s, because lenders are not too interested to write those loans currently. So buyers now have less competition when negotiating for an owner occupied property. Investor buyers have clearly decreased in the marketplace.

Keep in mind that San Diego real estate will continue to be in high demand and will remain an excellent investment over the long-term. I expect the current environment to settle down in 2023, and once again we will have multiple buyers bidding on listings here in San Diego. Our economy is robust with tech companies, biotech, healthcare companies, and top universities that all pay well for talent. There are still plentiful renters here in San Diego with excellent incomes and the strong desire to finally own a nice property.

SFR Market Report: 92115 College Area; Median home price down 7% from August to $957,000 with closed sales down 21%, and inventory steady at 51 homes currently for sale. 92119 San Carlos: Median home price down 5% from August to $950,000 with closed sales down 5% to 18 sales, and inventory up 20% to 31 home currently for sale. 92120 Allied Gardens/Del Cerro Median home price down 7% to $1,050,000 with closed sales up 23% to 27 homes sold and inventory of homes for sale up 31% to 34 homes available.