Ready to Shop Roaring 20s Style? Global Consumers’ Pent-Up Demand Is Giving Retailers New Optimism

New York State just launched a “vaccine passport” app that will let people prove they’ve been vaccinated or tested negative for COVID-19 by flashing a QR code on their phone. The app will give New Yorkers an easy way to certify their health status and attend events at large venues like concert halls and stadiums. It’s the most recent positive bit of news on the vaccine front and another reason for optimism that we’ll soon be back to a more normal way of life.

With vaccine efforts ramping up and retail sales gaining from another round of stimulus checks, the industry outlook is brightening this spring and many retail experts are expecting an especially strong fourth quarter this year. As many others have already predicted, we’re heading toward the new Roaring 20s. But while retail data and pent-up consumer demand point to a strong rebound, what are shoppers looking for in a post-pandemic world and which categories are likely to benefit most?

This week, our Retail Influencer Network met virtually, one year after our very first Insights call, to discuss how the industry is shifting as we leave the worst of the pandemic behind us. Steve Sadove led the discussion featuring special guests Greg Petro, CEO of First Insight; Tony Shan, Alibaba Group’s Head of the Americas for Tmall Global and Kaola; Greg Hanover, CEO of Liveops; Chip Wade, President of Union Square Hospitality Group; and Lucy Lieberman, CEO of Tablet Hotels.

Here’s what retail experts say about how the outlook for several retail categories is changing:

·      Apparel is seeing a shift from comfort to color. Casual footwear and sportswear are maintaining the momentum they’ve seen throughout the pandemic, but consumers are starting to toss their sweats to the side in search of dressier, more colorful pieces that reflect their current optimism. Dresses, shorts, jackets and knit tops are among the categories that are gaining renewed traction this spring.

·      Luxury is performing well across the globe. While China is driving overall growth in the luxury category, consumers everywhere from Dubai to the US to Europe are also purchasing finer things and we can expect opulence to see a strong comeback. Retailers are already seeing strength in luxury apparel and investment pieces such as fine watches and jewelry.

·      Restaurants are going to come back strong. People are eager to get out of their homes and reconnect and celebrate with loved ones over a good meal they don’t have to cook themselves. As more people get vaccinated, both diners and restaurant employees are feeling a sense of relief and with the warmer weather and loosened restrictions on capacity, restaurateurs expect to see a big jump in in-person dining.

·      International travel bookings are ticking up. Paris was previously the number one city destination for travelers, but New York City has nudged it from the top spot as Paris is currently in lockdown and US consumers have been focused on domestic travel. Smaller US cities such as Savannah, Scottsdale and Charleston have also been surprisingly popular destinations. But travelers are now looking to go global again, and many are already booking nonrefundable international trips for as soon as July.

·      Retail foot traffic is picking up again in the US, but it’s uneven. While shoppers are flocking to malls and stores in the South, especially in Florida, New York and California, traditionally big drivers of retail sales, are lagging in terms of foot traffic. That may be due to these two states’ high populations, which mean they have millions more people to vaccinate before many shoppers feel comfortable returning to stores.

·      In beauty, skincare and haircare are still showing strength. Premium retailers are already seeing demand return for in-store makeovers and spa treatments, a strong sign that consumers are ready to head back to brick-and-mortar. Skincare and haircare sales skyrocketed as people started investing more in beauty wellness products and DIY treatments during the pandemic and they continue to show strength. Color makeup hasn’t yet rebounded to 2019 levels, though, likely because most people are still wearing masks outside the home.