Reading Novels Helps Security Analysts

Although the central analytic tools for geopolitical risk analysis are logic, reason, and probability, imagination and philosophy also play a critical part in helping security professionals understand decision making by leaders and governments. One of the best ways to train oneself on incorporating imagination into analysis is through reading novels, which give the reader insight into how characters think while simultaneously guiding them through fundamental elements of human nature and experience. As such, this week we will look at several novels that will help security professionals utilize imagination and philosophy as tools of analysis because they are superior texts that truly speak to the human condition.

Lord of the Rings

This epic trilogy (originally intended to be one book) is one of the most insightful series of novels than anyone could read. There are a significant number of topics that one can read into the text, and one of those is how power politics works. Tolkien provided myths that offered descriptions of different ways one can deal with and utilize power to achieve one’s aims, but it contains many warnings from Sauron's story. Within the broader mythology, Sauron is a fallen Maiar who wants absolute dominion over Middle Earth, and he does this by imposing his will upon weaker beings. The One Ring gives Sauron this ability, and that is why it tempts everyone who comes near the object. Because of that temptation, Isildur was incapable of casting the ring into the fires of Mount Doom, showing the "weakness of men." The story of Sauron’s fall and Isildur’s weakness offers a lesson to geopolitical analysts on the temptation and limitations of power. First, Sauron sought total domination over the world through a Nietzschean pursuit of power, but this pursuit entirely hinged on tools of cruelty and malice. However, when people were willing to stand up to that cruelty and malice through first the alliance of elves and men and then the Fellowship, his power completely collapsed. When power is based on control rather than legitimacy, it is unstable and fragile. Second, Isildur offers the lesson that people will rarely choose the rational and moral option when it comes to power. Once Isildur decided not to destroy the Ring, Sauron's return was inevitable. It is important to understand why Isildur chose not to destroy the Ring: he believed he could wield power. How often do leaders believe it their God-given right to rule and then miserably fail because they only cared about power? Though often ignored, even Frodo succumbed to this temptation (Middle Earth was saved by Gollum’s biting). But that temptation killed Sauron, Isildur, and Gollum… Frodo was only spared because of friendship.

Analytic Lesson: The temptation to power for the sake of power almost always leads to demise, even if it takes decades to collapse.

Frankenstein

Mary Shelley wrote this epistolary novel while vacationing with her husband and friends, and in doing so, created an entire genre of literature (science fiction). Even more impressively, she did so at only the age of 19! Many read this book to enjoy the frightfulness of Frankenstein’s monster, but Shelley offers a significant critique of those who believe in modern Gnosticism. Humanity cannot create utopia or perfection because we are inherently flawed by our natures. The monster that Frankenstein created was imperfect due to his creator already being imperfect (Kant’s crooked timber). What Shelley teaches us is that whatever humanity creates--be it institutions, organizations, countries, governments--will always be flawed and tend towards corruption. Those ideologies that seek utopia or that offer a perfect society are always rotten underneath and will in actuality be dystopian.

Analytic lesson: Never trust anything created by people because it will always be flawed and corrupted as it was created by flawed and corrupted people.

Lord of the Flies

Another book that looks at human nature, Lord of the Flies details the collapse of society when young boys are shipwrecked on an island and completely lack any governing structure. All their socialization goes by the wayside when they no longer have institutions to guide or punish them. Soon violence abounds within the small cohort of young boys until the brutal death of a member of the group. They also have to create the idea of a monster to keep the boys in line (another lesson in socialization). This Hobbesian metaphor explains the essential nature of both humanity and the international order. When there is a power vacuum or no authority to guide people, chaos will ensue. From the henotheistic order of the Sumerian city-states to the rules-based international order of modernity, there must be a powerful arbiter to prevent inter- and intra- communal violence. Man’s nature tends towards violence always (St. Augustine’s libido dominandi), and humanity requires consistent socialization and strong institutions to prevent this from happening.

Analytic lesson: When there is an absence of authority, socialization, institutions, or regional powers, then violence will increase because of human nature.

The Count of Monte Cristo

The Count of Monte Cristo takes place in the backdrop of Napoleon's fall and the Bourbon Restoration, involving a lover’s triangle and ambitious jealousy. The protagonist, Edmund Dantès, is wrongfully imprisoned in the Chateau d'If because his rivals accuse of him being a Bonapartist (in truth it is the prosecutor’s father who is the Bonapartist). During Edmund’s long imprisonment, another prisoner educated him on history, culture, languages, and science, and using that prisoner’s death, Edmund escapes to claim lost treasure. Now appearing back in society as the Count of Monte Cristo, Edmund begins an effective campaign of revenge against all those who wronged him. This dramatic story of vengeance might appear as only a dashing adventure that gives emotional satisfaction, but the historic backdrop provides a powerful lesson: those wronged during political tribulations can harbor ill intent that comes back. Think of the Arab Spring, for example, that was started by the self-immolation of a fruit vendor over his humiliation at the state. Those people swept away because of the ambitious by petty men can easily turn around and fundamentally change politics.

Analytic lesson: Do not forget the ordinary people impacted by politics and geopolitics because they can change both down the road.

Harry Potter

The Harry Potter series has an extraordinary amount of theology woven into its mythology and storyline, and one of the central ideas is about what evil means. Applying St. Augustine’s notion of privatio boni, JK Rowling shows that dark magic is the corruption of the good, not existing in and of itself, and then she also weaves in Hannah Arendt’s banality of evil in that dark wizards and witches only lay waste to the world through thoughtlessness. One could delve deeply into the theology and philosophy of the wizarding world, including hilaritas and the Weasley twins, the soul and magic, and sacrificial love (caritas). But Voldemort really exemplifies the major theological struggle. Even his name (French for “will to death”) shows the true nature of totalitarianism. When Death Eaters take over, they impose a totalitarian government that views “mudbloods” as subhuman and focuses on subjugating all unworthy creatures (centaurs, house elves, goblins, etc.). Draw comparisons to other totalitarian regimes in the 20th century and how they behaved. Nazis, Stalinists, Maoists, etc. all behaved in a similar manner to Voldemort, though the communists did not use a racial hierarchy like the fascists. Rather, communists murdered in the millions the kulaks, petit bourgeoisie, intellectuals, and anyone with uniqueness. However, all totalitarians need the persecution of the “other” to survive. Although Rowling offered brilliant insight into the nature of totalitarianism, she also showed the folly of failing to confront such evil early and quickly. The Ministry of Magic chose to be blind to Voldemort’s return rather than begin a war effort, and this led to their downfall. Rowling likely didn’t intend for this lesson to extend to Dumbledore, but readers can see his abysmal failure when it came to Tom Riddle as well. Dumbledore saw that Riddle was becoming Voldemort and chose inaction and complacency (just as he did with Grindelwald…). The weakness of Dumbledore allowed evil to flourish when early action could have neutralized the threat of He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named before even the First Wizarding War. Evil festers and consumes until it is forcibly stopped.

Analytic lesson: Totalitarians all behave the same way, and the only mechanism to stop these regimes is confrontation (preferably earlier rather than later).

Using Novels to Help Analysis

This was only a smattering of novels that provide useful insight into the human condition, which can help analysts better understand decision making in power politics. Of course, even these brief descriptions do not do these extraordinary works justice. Other books that can seriously help security professionals improve their capabilities are the Red Rising series, Pride and Prejudice, The Poisonwood Bible, Crime and Punishment, The Thursday Murder Club series, Catch-22, 1984, and so many others. Good science fiction can especially be useful for the application of imagination to current technology and political issues (see here for the previous newsletter on fictional intelligence).

The larger analytic point is that fictional stories help security professionals and analysts use their imagination to see how the world can and does work. Studious attention to formal logic and probability are the foundation for all good analysis, but only utilizing them leads to a kind of myopia. Humanity is not only guided by logic and reason, but also by passion, anger, desire, love, hate, and any number of non-quantifiable and irrational motivations. Novels allow analysts to see humanity in its completeness, and they can use that to produce more insightful analysis on political and security risks.