Reading April’s Tea Leaves

Tasseography is the art of interpreting patterns in tea leaves, coffee grounds, or wine sediments.

Do you sometimes wish you could see into the future and predict what investments would do well or what macro events would happen? Everyone would like that. Fortunately, no one can do that.?

What does this have to do with personal finance??

We are six days into the second quarter of the year. How will the months of April to June shape out? Nobody knows. Two things are certain, though: things will either go up or come down. Are you prepared for both? We will see a mix of both.?

Inflation in energy prices spiked last month, and it may remain like that for sometime. Can your business survive if diesel or petrol prices go up another 30% to 50%??

Would you lose sleep if your portfolio went down, say, 20% to 30%??

Would the Russia vs Ukraine war escalate or de-escalate??

If there is anything 2022 has taught me, it is that black swan events are becoming more frequent. If you can lay your hands on the book, "Black Swan" by Nassim Taleb, it would be a great read in these times.?

One thing that should remain constant is investing, come rain, come sunshine. It's easier said than done, though. It's human nature to “choke” when things are negative or to go heavy when something is buzzing. But stay calm. Investing shouldn't make you excited, we know.

Another key skill you will need is to continually up your investing and personal skills game. The investing universe is continually changing. You cannot be everywhere, I know. What you must avoid, however, is standing totally still. Even the world rotates.?

Thirdly, always view things from a broader perspective. There’s a lot happening that affects your investments beyond market movements such as changes in regulations and policies, as well as happenings in the global and domestic economy. Even developments in your immediate locale can affect your investments. The world is a global village. Keep an eye on your neighbours.?

If you are in Kenya, elections are a few months away. Are you familiar with the leading candidate's economic policies? You need to. Ditto Nigeria.?

While politicians campaign in poetry, but govern in prose, knowing the outlines is key. Whichever party or candidate wins will influence economic fortunes for potentially eight years (in reality, the spillover effects last even longer).?

Get up and vote! Not only is it your civil right, it has a direct impact on your personal finance. If a candidate’s economic policies seem like they will favour you, then you do your own bit by voting.?

I close with the words of Maya Angelou: "Hope for the best. Prepare for the worst. Be unsurprised by anything in between."

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