Reactivation 'Made In USA'

If history repeats its cycle, United States is "on the verge" of an economic revival that will celebrate the human reunion through consumption reactivation. 

In areas such as South Florida and the main cities of Texas, scenes related to Covid-19 start to being part of 'yesterday' ..., according to OpenTable, reservations to visit restaurants (in person) in both States today are 8% higher than those reported before the pandemic.

Places where people are going out today more than before... like Miami Beach, where excessive crowds and partying during spring break forced curfews, showing that socialization needs prevail -and threatens pandemic control-, massive vaccination generates a psychological confidence effect, and economic recovery in the United States, as has been confirmed by the World Bank, OECD, Elon Musk, Kristalina Georgieva, or JPMorgan, will be overwhelming.

According to Morgan Stanley, GDP growth in the country will achieve an 8.1% increase during 2021, economic metrics will return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of the first quarter, and unemployment will get below 4% by the end of the year. With a promise focused on two key dates: May first, when vaccines will be available to all Americans regardless of age, and the Fourth of July, which will celebrate a "return to normalcy."

With the $ 1.9 trillion stimulus package signing on March twelve by President Biden, the federal government completed a recovery budget as large as 28% of the nation's GDP in 2019. Of course, someone will pay for it in a tax reform that will contemplate expanding wealth tax collection to people who earn more than USD 400,000 a year, increasing the corporate tax point by 8%, deductibles limits, among others.

In return, stimulus packages for all size companies, incentives for commercial reopenings, monthly checks for the most vulnerable, among others; will continue to come as we await the next part of the Democratic Plan, which will include an infrastructure restructuring, carbon reduction packages, local industry development, a boost to education, and the possible arrival of federal taxes on recreational cannabis, something that California's inclusive bloc (Nancy / Kamala) frequently promises.

With a 13% increase in current home savings, the stock market celebrating a Dow Jones that exceeds 30 thousand points daily, real estate on the rise reaching more than 15% in areas of Florida or Colorado, and the movement in cryptocurrencies, which according to Bobby Lee (one of the industry titans) could take Bitcoin to USD 300,000 in summer to end at $ 1,000 in winter (when its Federal competitor, the Digital Dollar, which makes banks 'tremble', arrives); it is evident that there seems to be (and will be) extra money for a time.

And how will Americans spend it? As Nietzsche also confirmed, if history repeats itself in the post-war periods, Americans are dedicated to spending on experiences (the enjoyment of life), updating technologies, and, if possible, on the social mobility that buying a home gives, with an essential difference from previous generations: globalization of consumption, concern about climate change, and access to technologies will have a dominant influence.

According to Earnest Research, bookings on platforms like Airbnb have increased more than 30% since March, air flights continue to rise, and demand for organic food and electric cars has returned to double-digit growth. Also, with Vaccines increasing their availability, total return to school is being promoted because beyond post-pandemic work reinvention, there is a desire to give parents time and tranquility.

 As always, the pandemic's next peak, which apparently will also come out of the 'suspended' parties in Miami Beach, will set the set of the 'Made in USA' reactivation (a determining factor for many of the world's economies) and its celebration of the 'Post Covid' reunion, knowing whether you like it or not, the pandemic still has a long way to go... if it ever goes.

Original Column: https://www.forbes.com.mx/reactivacion-made-in-usa/