RBA tones down hawkishness

Briefly in today’s #5in5withANZ podcast below:

Oil fell back 5% overnight on fears about China’s growth outlook. The RBA tones down the hawkishness in its September board minutes. All eyes are on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision today - will it be 25 or 50 basis points?

5 things to know in 5 minutes:

1. Oil fell back over 5% overnight on fears about China’s growth. Today, all eyes are on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision. ANZ New Zealand Chief Economist Sharon Zollner and the market are expecting a 50 basis point cut.
2. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s September board minutes contained two clear signals of a step down in recent hawkishness, says ANZ Head of Australian Economics Adam Boyton .
3. Adam says ANZ Research is sticking with its call that the RBA won’t lower rates until February, with the Board minutes indicating that just because others are on the move, that doesn’t mean they are considering it just yet.
4. ANZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence ticked up 1.5 points last week to 83.5, led by views on current financial conditions. ANZ Economist Madeline Dunk says the survey just can’t crack out of a tight range below 85.
5. One potential confidence booster is the strength of Australia’s jobs market. ANZ-Indeed Job Ads rose 1.6% in September, the first increase in eight months Maddy says NAB Business Survey sentiment might also catch the RBA’s attention.

In our bonus Deep Dive interview:

ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung 楊宇霆 explains why China’s National Development and Reform Commission didn’t announce any additional fiscal stimulus at yesterday’s briefing, but why some might be around the corner.

Cheers

Alex and Bernard

PS: Bernard is away today on family leave. Catch you tomorrow with reviews of the RBNZ and Reserve Bank of India rate decisions.