Rates Recover After Bumpy Week; Realtors See Prices Moderating

Mortgage rates recovered and bounced at 6-month lows early last week and moved higher at a faster-than-normal pace through the middle of this week. They've been slow to recover, but Friday went a long way toward solidifying the short-term ceiling.

Economic data inspired the move on Friday with Consumer Sentiment falling to the lowest levels since 2011, just edging out the lows seen at the start of the pandemic.

The University of Michigan, which has conducted the survey for decades, called out the "stunning loss of confidence" as being distorted by consumers' emotional response to the resurgence of the pandemic, ultimately concluding "consumers will again voice more reasonable expectations" in the coming months.

In other words, they think the number is significantly lower than warranted by actual economic conditions, assuming the recent spike in cases attributed to the delta variant gives way to better numbers in the coming weeks.

The bond market wasn't interested in that qualification. Bonds tend to improve (higher prices and lower yields/rates) when economic data is downbeat and Friday's sentiment data was no exception. 10yr Treasury yields dropped almost 0.08% to end the week at 1.283%.

The prices for the bonds that underlie mortgage rates moved higher as well, thus allowing mortgage lenders to offer slightly lower rates.

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Things could improve next week if the bond market stays near current levels.