Rate cuts fire up NZ business confidence

Just briefly in our #5in5withANZ podcast:

US stocks are strong this morning on more signs of a soft landing. NZ business confidence surges as rates are cut. Australian capital investment plans remain strong, and India’s GDP figures later today may send the Reserve Bank of India a dovish signal.

5 things in 5 minutes:

1. US stocks rose 1% and US Treasury yields firmed 2-3 bps overnight after US annual GDP growth rose to 3% in Q2, which beat forecasts and bolstered hopes the Fed is engineering a soft landing, says ANZ Economist Bansi Madhavani, CFA from London.
2. New Zealand business confidence about the wider economy surged in August by 23 points to its highest level in a decade in the ANZ Business Outlook survey. ANZ NZ Chief Economist Sharon Zollner r points to falling interest rates.
3. Sharon says the survey contained both good and bad news about inflation for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
4. Australian retail sales figures for July later today will indicate how much of the stage 3 tax cuts are being spent. ANZ Research sees a 0.3% monthly rise. Market expectations range from 0% to 0.8%, says ANZ Economist Madeline Dunk .
5. India reports Q2 GDP data today. ANZ Economist Dhiraj Nim sees annual growth of 6.4%, down from 7.8% in Q1 due to sluggish public spending during India’s elections. He says a lower result will send a dovish signal to the RBI, which has forecast 7.1%.

In our bonus deep dive interview:

ANZ Chief Economist for Greater China Raymond Yeung 楊宇霆 unpacks how changing global supply chains are driving capital outflows from China’s manufacturers.

Cheers

Bernard

PS: Catch you next week with analysis of US PCE inflation data tonight and what it might mean for the Fed.

#5in5withANZ also free daily directly on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, YouTube and Substack from 6 am Sydney/Melbourne time. FYI Richard Yetsenga and ANZ Institutional