Rate Cut Expectations Changing?
We can never be certain what the Fed is thinking or how they are planning to act/react with respect to interest rates.? But, the "market" (and by the market, I mean the collective expectations of investors) generally does a pretty good job of distilling potential Fed action into some basic probabilities.
In other words, we can look at what investors are betting on and get a pretty good idea of whether investor sentiment believes the Fed is going to take action on rates, and to what extent.? Now, this isn't always rocket science -- the Fed does a pretty good job themselves of signaling what they plan to do in many cases.
But, these days, there's a lot of mixed sentiment on when rates will start to come down -- and even dissent among some who think rates may go up again before coming down.
So, I do keep my eye on what the market is predicting; and the last month has been eye-opening...
Exactly a month ago, the market was predicting nearly a 50% chance of a rate cut during next Fed meeting in March.? Today, it's less than a 3% chance for a reduction in March. (The red box below is a month ago, the graph is today.)
Now, this isn't particularly surprising given that inflation blipped up last month.
But, what is more surprising is that the market doesn't seem to think that inflation -- along with other economic indicators -- is going to subside any time soon.
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If we take a look at the current market predictions for July -- far enough out that we typically don't see rapid changes in probabilities over short periods of time -- we see that since last month, the likelihood of rates dropping at least 50 basis points (.5%) has gone from a near certainty to only about a 40% probability.
Long story short, the market doesn't believe that 2024 is going to be the paradise of rate cuts that investors had previously been hoping/planning for.?
This could cause some additional pain in the multifamily space, as many operators are awaiting lower interest rates to refinance, to bring down rate cap prices, and get their floating rate mortgage costs down.? Additionally, this could continue to add to the stress seen by banks holding real estate assets that are struggling with higher interest rates.
#economy #economics #interestrates #investing #realestate #jscott #investingtips #multifamily #biggerpockets
Mixed sentiment is definitely the right way to put it ?? With the delay in rate cuts, what alternative strategies might multifamily investors consider in the current market?
Self-Funded SMB Acquisition Searcher | USAF Experimental Flight Test Engineer Instructor | Real Estate Investor | REALTOR | Defense Ventures Alumnus
8 个月AND they just admitted that FAIT was essentially a big fat lie to placate the masses lol while I think we'll still see a modest decline, I feel bad for anyone who was relying on a sharp rate decrease this year to stay out of trouble ??
Director of Capital Markets
8 个月I hate the prediction, but loved the read!
The low rates were cause by a historically low fed fund rate and unprecedented QE put together. The QE created artificial demand for bonds. Neither exist right now and aren't coming back until something in the economy breaks.
Helping Engineers Passively Invest In Multifamily Real Estate | Aerospace Engineer | Ironman Athlete
8 个月If there has been one theme during this cycle with the Fed it’s “expect the unexpected!”