Will the rapid rise of AI lead to better jobs?

By Pieter Cranenbroek , Senior News Editor, LinkedIn News

John Shepherd-Barron, a British engineer, didn't like to be bound by his bank's opening times. There had to be a way he could get his money whenever he wanted, anywhere in the world, he figured, and envisioned a chocolate bar dispenser for cash.

His engineering team came up with the first automated teller machine (ATM), first used in north London in 1967. The invention was a hit and threatened to put a lot of tellers out of a job. But, in fact, the opposite occurred.?

Now that it was cheaper to operate branches, banks opened in more locations, boosting employment. It also meant teller jobs were replaced by better paid sales, advisory and customer relation roles.

Ever since Luddites set fire to looms to destroy competition from machines, workers have needed some convincing that new technology can be a good thing. True, automation replaced certain jobs, but it also created new ones in return.?

The dawn of increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence (AI) programmes such as ChatGPT has started the friend or foe discussion anew. With a twist, because this time new technology is coming for knowledge workers rather than manufacturing jobs.

How do experts in the field of AI see its impact on the future of work? Can the technology change our working lives for the better?

The impact of artificial intelligence on jobs

Jamie Dimon, CEO of the largest bank in the US, JPMorgan Chase, believes AI will boost worker productivity to the point that today's children will work three-and-a-half days a week .?

This future work-life balance will likely come at the expense of jobs in the short-term, Dimon acknowledges, but he believes technological advances will ultimately be more positive than negative.?

Sentiment among European workers is also optimistic: a recent LinkedIn survey of 10,724 professionals in six European countries found that 45% of workers expect their jobs to change in the next year as a result of AI, with 74% saying they expect these developments to help with their career progression.

Research suggests this may indeed be the case.?

AI's impact on jobs broadly falls in two buckets: jobs that go away as a result of automation, and jobs that will be enhanced thanks to AI.?

From a global perspective, the potential for augmentation is almost six times greater than it is for automation, according to a policy brief from the Global Partnership on Artificial Intelligence (GPAI), an initiative hosted by the OECD.?

Still, an estimated 2.3% of total employment is exposed to automation risks, according to the International Labour Organization . A separate study by Goldman Sachs forecasts that the equivalent of 300 million jobs worldwide could become obsolete, with two-thirds of occupations "exposed to some degree of automation by AI".

"Automation will particularly affect jobs that involve routine and repetitive tasks such as data entry clerks, customer service representatives, delivery drivers," says Cecilia Bonefeld-Dahl , director general at DIGITALEUROPE , a trade association representing the digital technology industry in Europe.?

"Industries like financing, retail and manufacturing will most likely be affected. However, jobs 'altered' would also mean new jobs created as tasks shift from less 'repetitive' to more 'operational' and 'creative'."

That sounds a lot like what happened to jobs in banking when ATMs took over teller jobs.

"Almost all jobs and industries will be affected," says Maria Bielikova , founder and CEO of the Kempelen Institute of Intelligent Technologies (KInIT), in an email to LinkedIn News Europe.

"The impact will depend not only on the real potential, but also on society and regulations. So it will not be the same all over the world."

What's interesting in this respect is that the countries that stand to see the biggest impact on their workforce are also the ones best positioned to handle the transformation.?

"High-income countries are better equipped to deal with the cost of the transitions, both in financial and institutional terms," Pawel Gmyrek , senior researcher at the International Labour Organization , tells LinkedIn News Europe.

"In low-income countries, the existing digital gap does offer a temporary shield from immediate exposure to automation, but it also creates a risk of missing out on the productivity benefits that generative AI has to offer."

Then there's a third category, "the big unknown", which comprises 9% of the global workforce, or some 281 million people. These jobs could go either way, disappear or improve, depending on how policymakers act.

Just like high-income economies face both the biggest risks and the biggest rewards, the same is true within societies for women. Female employment has a much higher risk of automation (8.5%) compared to male employment (3.9%), but women are also more likely to perform jobs which have the potential to be augmented by AI.

"A badly managed transition could disproportionately harm women, while a positive transformation process could create important opportunities for women’s empowerment," says Gmyrek.

Planning for the future

Whether or not AI will bring a high tide that lifts all boats is going to depend on the policies that will accompany this transformation.

US senator Bernie Sanders wants to make sure workers, and not just big corporations, benefit from higher productivity , he writes in a new book, and plans to introduce legislation that "substantially [lowers] the workweek".

The equitable distribution of the benefits of AI will require "pro-active policy" , notes the GPAI report. According to Gmyrek, that means providing social protection and offering retraining to affected workers, addressing gender-specific needs, and investing in "sectors that are underfunded and which have the potential to be a source of good quality jobs, such as in care or the green economy".

Bonefeld-Dahl also sees an important role for education in preparing the next generations of workers for a future with AI.

"Employers and policymakers can play a role in making the '4th industrial revolution' as inclusive as possible for everyone in society and not just the few privileged, by fully embedding digital skills and especially AI skills across all educational and vocational programmes."

Just like the green transition will take away some jobs and create new job opportunities in other sectors, so will the AI economy prompt a reallocation of the workforce. Boosting people's digital proficiency could go a long way in preparing workers for future labour markets, Bonefeld-Dahl adds.

And then there are jobs that will remain vital even in an age of increasingly advanced technological tools.

"Given that current AI capabilities are not the result of reasoning and understanding a problem, we still need and will continue to need humans to make decisions," says Bielikova.?

"There is a risk that the new generation will rely more on AI systems and not gain proper hands-on experience, so we will need several cycles of learning with lots of failures before we learn to live with the technology."

Join the conversation in the comments, or in a post using #ShiftingPerspectives.

We asked professionals in Europe how they expect artificial intelligence to influence their job in the future. Will the technology improve their work, do they fear AI will take their job away, or do they think it will have little effect on their profession? Here's what they said:

Valeriy Shmarev , Business Developer, says:

[AI] will free up a lot of space and resources for creativity in business like testing new niches in two clicks or implementing new marketing hypotheses without having to wait for months. Soft skills are now [the way] to thrive.

Cassandra Than , Customer Relationship Management Coordinator, comments:

I don't think [AI] will be replacing manpower yet because, despite all the data and algorithms, the human mind or reality is more complex to analyze and solve. AI tools are there to help to a certain point, but if you want to have quality work, you still need to put in some effort to polish what AIs give you.

What are your thoughts on the impact of AI on the future of work? Do you expect your job to change? Join the conversation.

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Pieter Cranenbroek , Senior News Editor

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