Rapeseed harvest 2021 – Return of a cash crop?! European farmers between desire and reality.

The European rapeseed production has gone through an exciting rollercoaster trip during the last years. Extremely influenced from the 3 dry summers (2018 – 2020) rapeseed suffered a lot from unfavorable conditions and changing management intensity. Farmers went out from the previous cash crop with varying degrees of success. The growing season 2021 with a cooler spring and long flowering period offered excellent conditions for high yield. “Did the rapeseed deliver?”

1.??????Review on the climate conditions in 2020/2021

It is well-known that rapeseed makes his yield in autumn. The last year’s favorable conditions during autumn should have enabled a successful establishment before winter. But was that the case everywhere?

The start in August and first part of September 2020 underlines again, that we are working with Mother Nature. While farmers in France, Southeast Romania, Bulgaria or Ukraine suffered from a long-lasting drought, the rapeseed growers in United Kingdom, Belarus, Poland, Czech Republic or Northwest Hungary faced a rain surplus. As a result, rapeseed was sown with some delay, established slowly or inhomogeneous with the typical difficulties for the further management. During the following weeks we could observe an opposite picture. While France suffered from rain deficit during August, we now saw a stronger rain surplus. But not only in Western Europe, also in larger areas of South Poland, Czech Republic or Northern Hungary continuous rainfalls were dominating. In the same time a temperature accumulation came up as a broad belt from the Baltics to Bulgaria. In the consequence spring crops like sunflower suffered in their production extremely from these conditions. Finally, also the rapeseed development in Western and Central Europe was regionally behind the typical growth stage in this time of the year.

One highlight during the rapeseed season 2020/2021 was the pretty tough winter, especially the 3 cold waves between beginning of January 2021 and mid of February with temperatures down to -20 or even -25 °C. The dominating opinion at this time was a higher expectation of winter killing, especially in the countries around the Baltic Sea. But except of some smaller winter damages farmers were lucky, as in most cases the rapeseed was protected by a stronger snow coverage (up to 20 cm). Later on the rapeseed benefited from an untypical cold spring with lower temperatures and sufficient rainfall. Even weak developed canopies were able to develop a promising package of side branches during the bud stage. Of course, the cold period was helpful to reduce the appearance of insect pests like the critical pollen beetle feeding on the buds before flowering. Additionally, the cooler temperatures in May prolonged the flowering stage, a strong base for higher yield potentials, but the higher moisture also deliver a continuous risk for late infections with Sclerotinia. Later, farmers realized that these wet conditions enabled hidden infections, which had a bigger impact on the results than expected.

2.??????Yield estimations during summer 2021

Based on the cold spring, which was favorable for the further rapeseed development, market experts finetuned their harvest estimations step by step. The highly acclaimed MARS Bulletin report present in their March 2021 edition an average yield for EU27 of 3,26 t/ha (4 % more vs. 2020 and 7 % more than 5-year average), especially the countries in Southeast Europe like Hungary (+ 27 %), Romania (+ 30 %) or Bulgaria (+25 %) underline the high expectations in comparison with the yield figures from 2020. The further monthly reports and their yield estimations just repeat the beginning figures and the favorable conditions for rapeseed in 2021, except of a few countries in Northeast Europe. The current report shows just for Poland with 3 t/ha (- 6 % vs. 2020), Lithuania (2,95 t/ha, -13 %), Latvia (2,88 t/ha, - 6 %) and Estonia (2,24 t/ha, - 22 %) a stronger reduction in comparison with the former satisfying year. While the international market estimations present for France still a high yield forecast from of 3,1 – 3,3 t/ha the local mood was depressed as the French farmers lost already around 100.000 ha, mainly due to the problems in autumn respectively higher insect damages. A harvest acreage of below 1.0 Mill. hectares were the lowest production area since 1997. Another country with problematic development was the United Kingdom as they suffered also from their conditions, mainly from the wet autumn and the high cabbage stem flea beetle damage. The final harvest acreage drops down to a level of just 312.000 ha, less than the half compared with the acreage 2015, the first year without neonicotinoid seed treatment. Luckily the first yield figures were above the 2020 results with 3,3 – 3,5 t/ha.

3.??????Harvest 2021 – overview of biggest rapeseed producing countries

The current rapeseed harvest 2020/2021 is estimated on a level of 17,03 Mill. tons by the international market experts of Strategie Grains. A figure, which is also confirmed by the last report from the USDA. The production surplus of 400.000 t/ha in comparison with 2020 are enjoyable but will not solve the tightness on the European rapeseed market.

The Top-5 rapeseed producers in the EU27 are Germany, France, Poland, Czech Republic and a surprisingly Romania. These countries produce together more than 70 % of the European Union. Based on a last update from OilWorld Germany was able to reach again the leading position in the EU-27. The graph below also presents the critical development of France, where the rapeseed farmers suffered from the challenging conditions 3 years in a row. The estimation of 3.8 Mill. tons for Germany respectively the 1.1 Mill. tons for Romania must be highlighted as new harvest updates speak already about a drop down for Germany (3.5 Mill. tons presented by DRV) and an increase for Romania (1.33 Mill. tons).

The coming weeks will clarify also, if the regional rainfalls before harvest or the heat waves like in North of Poland or in the Baltics had a bigger impact on the quality of the seeds. Also, we can expect further updates of the regional productions.??

4.??????Highlights:

Despite a tough winter 2020/2021 in Northeast Europe, we could observe a clear trend to more mild winters in the last years. Therefore, it was a small highlight to receive the data from Vadstena in Mid-Sweden, official location in the trial network OS7-27. The winter damage varies from 11 % down to 82 % with an average of 47,1 % in the whole trial. If we look now on the harvest results, we see a similar picture regarding yield. The variance goes from 119 % rel. yield down to 76 % rel. yield.

Interesting: the best 20 varieties in winterhardiness reached an average yield of 106 %, while the other 20 varieties drop down on a level of 93 % rel. yield.

Like all season’s rapeseed farmers struggle with one of the most dangerous pathogens around the Baltic Sea: Clubroot. Also, in spring 2021 we could observe that several fields had to be plowed again, because Clubroot destroyed up to 100 % of the field. On the right picture we can see a RAPOOL demo trial in Latvia with CROME on the right side and a destroyed conventional hybrid on the left.

Luckily, we have already high performing varieties like CROME or CROTORA, which confirmed also in 2021 their yield potential in official trials in Czech Republic or Sweden. Exciting was to see the performance from some of our new RAPOOL candidates. RAP602 (CROMAT) reached with 117,5 % the 4th place in the official Polish registration trials (OT2/3), based on a new healthy mother line respectively an attractive variety package including the standard traits TuYV and Rlm7.?

Robust plant health was also a major reason for different trial results in Czech Republic. While market leading varieties reached in the official SPZO attractive results (+ 5 % more than average), established as big demo stripes in the fields and managed under practice conditions, they dropped down in the small plot trials of UKZUZ. Here they test the new candidates for registration respectively Recommended List under more extensive conditions with less use of plant protection products. Interesting was the performance of our hybrid AKILAH, which present a good performance in the big demo stripes and an outstanding result in the small plot tests. Because of continuous rainfalls before harvest, higher soil moisture and a stronger appearance of stem base diseases like Verticillium wilt the RlmS Phoma resistance could confirm their robustness and yield potential, even under this challenging conditions.

5.??????Global perspective:

The current Canola production in Canada is dropping down more and more with each coming update. While a few weeks ago production forecasts of 16 – 17 Mill. tons were discussed by international experts like OilWorld or USDA, the last update by the Canadian ministry of Agriculture present just 15 Mill. tons. That are -20 % in comparison with last year production or -25 % vs. 5-year average. The dramatic extent of the losses will be more understanded if we keep in mind that the Canadian Canola farmers expanded their acreage (+ 8 % vs. 2020), due to a high global plant oil demand and low stocks.

Additionally, the current situation will be intensified through the fact that the production 2021 matches a low canola stock from previous harvest of just 0.7 Mill. tons due to a high export in the last marketing season. One year ago, the Canadian supply was more comfortable with ending stocks of 3.1 Mill. tons.????

But what are the main reasons for this dramatic drop down in 2021? The current Canola production suffered from frost in late spring, a higher insect pest appearance and the fatal heat wave in July with temperatures up to 50°C. The situation in Saskatchewan, as largest Canola producer in Canada, confirms the dramatic development during July. They suffered a lot from this heat, as 50 % of their Canola fields were in a poor or very poor condition. This is an incredible increase, if we compare this with the previous year, where just 3 % of the fields were in a critical stage. ??

The current production forecast by the Ministry of Agriculture of just 15. Mill. tons will be the lowest Canola harvest since 2012/2013, where Canada reached just 13.9 Mill. tons. This will have a high impact on the possible exports for the coming marketing season. Regarding the last report from Ottawa, they expect just 7.0 Mill. tons for export, which will be a reduction of 36 %.

On the other side of the world Russia emerges since a couple of years to a key rapeseed producer with stronger impact on the global supply, especially to China. The rapeseed season 2021 was a bigger challenge, as the growing conditions in autumn 2020 were not supportive. Based on high temperatures in summer 2020 sowing respectively emergence was not favorable. The consequence was that Russian rapeseed farmers lost more than 100.000 hectares over the winter months, mainly because of inhomogeneous development. The first yield figures speak about 2,8 t/ha. Additionally, Russia owns a growing spring rapeseed market with around 1.4 Mill. hectares. Also here are the first yield figures promising. Further increase in the rapeseed acreage for 2022 can be expected.

Besides Canada Ukraine is one of the main rapeseed suppliers for the European Union. Based on a growing demand Ukraine increased their acreage during the last years up to more than 1 Mill. hectares. Regarding UkrAgroConsult the acreage 2021 reached 1.05 Mill. hectares. Despite challenging weather conditions (cold prolonged spring, late ripening due stronger summer rainfalls) the delayed harvest reached quite high yield figures with 2,75 t/ha. It can be expected that based on the better production the Ukrainian exports to the European Union will surpass the 2. Mill. tons from last marketing year. ?

A lucky winner is Australia as they benefit from the global rapeseed rally and the regional favorable growing conditions. They have the chance to compensate the gap on the European rapeseed market, especially in the 2nd half of the marketing year 2021/2022. The more favorable weather conditions led to an optimistic canola production with up to 4.8 Mill. tons. Further updates could be expected till harvest starts in mid of autumn 2021. ??

6.??????Consequences for the market:

The tight supply on the European rapeseed market and the production issues in Canada led to an unimaginable price rally during the last 12 months. Based on a robust demand in Europe and not sufficient domestic productions we can expect ongoing imports on a level of 6 Mill. tons (OilWorld calculate with 6.5 Mill. tons). Connected to the already mentioned production issues in Canada, OilWorld estimate a reduction in the potential export volume of Canada by more than 4 Mill. tons. But it can be expected that the local Canadian processors will secure their quantities in order to fulfil the strong demand from the market. So the final export volume available for the market is not fixed yet.??

The EU rapeseed balance present with again decreasing opening stocks on a level of 0.8 Mill. tons a tight supply. It will remain exciting, if the European processor will be able to reach again a level of more than 22 Mill. tons, especially if the import quantity of 1.7 Mill. tons from Canada will not come. During the last year they benefit a lot from increasing prices on the global market for vegetable oils.?

Let’s have a deeper look on the German market, where most of the 22.5 Mill. tons in 2020/21 were produced. The share of German rapeseed on the regional production by German oil mills fall below 30 %, mainly because of lower domestic productions. Regarding the last update by the Oil mill association Ovid came 6.2 Mill. from the total amount of 9.0 Mill. tons from abroad (France, Ukraine, Poland, Canada or Australia). Based on this quantity German oil mills produced in 2020 3.8 Mill. tons of rapeseed oil, which was used mainly in Germany (3.0 Mill. tons) for human consumption or Biodiesel.???

The global respectively European commodity prices are still on an incredible rally, mainly due to a continuously strong demand. Since the first lockdown due to Covid-19 the prices increased by more than 200 €/ton. The key factors were already mentioned above: productions issues in Canada, average production in the EU27 and low stocks everywhere due to a high demand in the EU respectively China. Consequently, the European commodity prices for rapeseed reached 577 €/ton by end of last week 34 (+ 20 € during the week). In the same period the Canadian price jump on a level of 914 CAD, which is around 612 €/ton.????

As global rapeseed respectively Canola supply continues to worsen in the coming months because of production issues in Canada or low stocks in EU27 and Canada, further impacts will be visible on the feed market. The supply with rapeseed meal remains tight and with prices between 300 and 320 €/ton for non-GMO rapeseed meal around 30 % higher than one year ago. The uncertain final supply of Canola from Canada will reduce a stronger offer of further rapeseed meal, especially for the end of the year. The consequence is already visible for European animal owners: higher costs and less margin.

Outlook/Summary for 2022 and what we can learn from 2021:

The rapeseed season 2020/2021 follow in a row of years with individual challenges for a successful management. While a cooler spring respectively early summer 2021 support a strong plant development and promising pod package the quite wet July increase the late stem infections by Sclerotinia or Verticillium as well. In consequence the harvest started later and was not able to fulfill all expectations. Luckily the strong global demand for plant oils, mainly pushed by China support the average results with high attractive commodity prices of more than 500 €/ton. What can we learn from 2021?

The final success depends on the right variety choice. It becomes more and more important to take robust hybrids with a broad package of protecting traits (TuYV, Rlm7, RlmS, LLS, Verticillium, Clubroot or Pod-shatter resistance) respectively features like late sowing ability. If we put the modern hybrids together with the right location-adapted management rapeseed will also deliver again! ?

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