Rapeseed & Canola are back on track - Situation in the EU/worldwide

Article authors: Antanina U?inskien? (Product Manager oil crops and pulses of the Rapool-Ring Representation in the Baltic States) and Rene Brand (RAPOOL International Product Manager).

Rapeseed and Canola as leading sources for plant oil left their valley after several years of challenges and disappointments. According to the last update from International Grains Council (ICG) the global rapeseed production will reach a level of 84,5 Mill. tons in 2022/23 (+11,5 Mill. tons or 15,6 %).

The main reasons for this significant step forward are increased figures for acreage and yield per hectare in all leading countries. The European Union realized for the current fiscal year a satisfying harvest of 19,3 Mill. tons (+ 2,2 vs. last year). Surprising yields in Germany, France and Poland pushed the European result, which will be again stronger than the Canadian harvest (forecast: 19,1 Mill. tons).

Despite higher yields (22,3 dt/ha) and better growing conditions Canadian Canola farmers missed the production levels of 2019 or 2020 with 0,4 – 0,5 Mill. tons. Main reason was the decline in acreage with 4 % down to 8,7 Mill. hectares. Anyhow, the increased production will support the export, which is expected to increase from 5,3 up to 8,5 Mill. tons (+ 60 % vs. last year) [1].?

Further key players on the global market are Australia, Russia, and Ukraine (Graph 1). While Australia benefits from favorable conditions (+0,2 Mill. tons), Russia increased their acreage in winter and spring rapeseed a lot, which lead to a big step up in their productions (+1,5 Mill. tons). Ukraine’s harvest, impacted by the war, is forecasted with 3,1 Mill. tons (+0,1 Mill. tons) [2].??

In the EU-27 dominate also in 2022 the traditional rapeseed countries like France (+1,2 Mill. tons), Germany (+0,8 Mill. tons) and Poland (+0,4 Mill. tons). Interesting is that Lithuania was able to reach here with 1,14 Mill. tons the Top-5 countries (Graph 2) [3].

“Situation in the fields” – a first status report

Rapeseed sowing in August 2022 required “good nerves”, as the conditions were not favorable. At first late rainfalls postpone the harvest of cereals and later the lasting summer drought in August led to a delayed rapeseed sowing in several cases. Unfortunately, the young rapeseed plants had to establish in the fields with a lower than usual number of rainfalls (- 50 % & more). Additional stress appears due to lower temperatures between 1st of September and mid of October [4]. Due to these reasons rapeseed raise with lower weight of leaves biomass in comparison to usual sowing dates (picture 1).

Especially in Lithuania and Estonia we observed many inhomogeneous fields respectively rapeseed with a poor development. We estimate for both countries up to 30 % of the rapeseed acreage as questionable, which is a clear difference to last autumn.

“Rapeseed remain bullish” – a first forecast

Despite the bearish production and demand outlook, based on higher production figures, European rapeseed commodity recovered during the last weeks. The biggest driver for this trend is still the uncertainty for grain and oilseed availability from the Black Sea.

Additionally, we find positive vegetable oil prices, especially soya oil prices carry up other vegetable oils and oilseeds. If we look behind this development, we recognise soya oil supplies are tightened due to gaps in three major exporting countries.

A regional question mark became Australia during the last days, as strong rainfalls create localized floods in eastern producing regions. A first consequence is a wide range of production forecast, with a clear uncertainty regarding final damage caused by late rainfalls. While the IGC speak about 6,8 Mill. tons, OilWorld present a potential harvest of 7,1 Mill. tons, due to increased acreage by 0,4 Mill. hectare. But one question remain, how big will be the final drop down in yield. OilWorld speaks already about 8 %, the coming weeks will deliver more confidence [5].

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“ROMEO, HERAKLES & Co.” – an update for new generation of hybrids

The breeding progress continuous, also for rapeseed. It became more and more visible that the new generation of TuYV hybrids is a clear step forward in yield, stress tolerance, plant health and stability. As market leader in the Baltic countries, we are working year by year on competitive portfolio.

Today we would like to present 2 newcomers: ROMEO & HERAKLES. Both hybrids complete our TuYV strategy. Additionally, they offer with Rlm7 also a supportive resistance against Phoma lingam.

ROMEO convince with a strong development before winter, a reliable winter hardiness, which the variety confirmed in official trials in Sweden 2021/22. Especially the strong results in Mid-Sweden speak for a robust variety package, even under harsh conditions (Graph 4). Next to the broad plant health package (TuYV + Rlm7) ROMEO offer with a good drought tolerance and Pod-shatter resistance further features, which ensure a high yield stability. The official trial results in Poland (2020 – 2022) complete with 113 % rel. yield a coherent newcomer.

HERAKLES convince with a vigorous growth before winter and with a leading winter hardiness, which the variety confirmed in official trials in Sweden 2021/22. Due to climate change we observe a n uncertain appearance of winter killing. Anyhow, this feature has still a big importance for several farmers in the Baltic countries, mainly as a reliable base for profitable yield results. The strong results in Mid-Sweden underline that HERAKLES continues the line of ROHAN, VISBY or MERCEDES (Graph 5).

The robust variety package will be completed by a broad plant health package (TuYV + Rlm7), high lodging resistance and high oil contents for profitable productions, even under harsh conditions.

What is coming in 2023?

Keeping in mind this year challenges Rapool Baltic decided to establish a new project, which cover several questions as sowing times, sowing densities and different seed treatments. Our new and perspective varieties were cultivated in normal and late sowing dates together with different sowing rates (45 & 60 plants/m2), additionally we test DUPLO with different seed treatments. All plots were assessed several times when plants reached different growing stages. The last assessment was conducted few days ago: we measured plant biomass, growing stage respectively growing point diameter. We will share our results soon with you.

Stay tuned!

[1] Source: https://www.agrarzeitung.de/markt/markt-news/rapsmarkt-igc-erwartet-deutlich-groessere-ernte-104036

?[2] Source: https://www.topagrar.com/markt/news/kanadas-rapsernte-2022-noch-nicht-wieder-in-alter-groesse-13222517.html

[3] Source: DG Agriculture and Rural Development based on Eurostat crop production annual data.

[4] Source: JRC MARS Bulletin, Crop monitoring in Europe, edition October 2022.

[5] Source: https://www.rapool.com/news/oilseed-rape-market/