Ranking Every State's Employment - From Worst To Best

Whether you’re buying or selling a property, you’ve got to consider who the next buyer is.?

The number of future buyers is determined primarily by one thing - Jobs.

If people have a job, then they’re in the market for a home. The more people in jobs, the more buyers there will be.

I’ve analysed every state and ranked them from the worst to the best performing based on their jobs market.

In a shocking twist, one of Australia’s top-performing capital cities is showing SEVERE signs of cracking.

The Ranking System

The metrics analysed include:

1. Employment Growth: The rate at which new jobs are created, driving higher income and housing demand.
2. Unemployment Rates: A measure of how many people are actively seeking work, with lower rates generally indicating a stronger economy.
3. Participation Rate: The percentage of working-age people who are either employed or actively looking for work, indicating how engaged the population is in the economy.
4. Job Ads: Predicts future hiring trends, showing where opportunities or challenges may emerge.
5. Youth Unemployment: A key indicator of how effectively the economy supports young workers as they enter the job market, highly sensitive to economic shifts.

Breaking Down Each State’s Performance

8. Tasmania

• Current Job Market: Negative employment growth (-2.1%), with jobs being shed across the state. Falling participation rate (60.7%) signals a weakening job market. Youth unemployment (10.6%) remains above the national average.
• Challenges: Disillusionment among job seekers and limited new opportunities.
• Outlook: Weakest job market, with minimal signs of economic recovery in the short term.

7. South Australia

• Current Job Market: Negative employment growth (-0.2%), indicating job losses and economic stagnation. Rising unemployment rate (4.3% from 3.7% 1yr prior) and a significant drop in participation rate (63%). Youth unemployment increased to 9.6%, above national average.
• Key Concerns: The property boom appears over, which may lead to decreased housing demand.
• Outlook: Risk of further economic decline, making the state less appealing for property investment.

6. Victoria

• Current Job Market: Employment growth at 4.2%, strong compared to others but offset by higher unemployment. Unemployment rate at 4.4%, with more people entering the workforce. Increased participation rate 68.5% shows more confidence in the job market.
• Key Insights: Better than media narratives suggest, but higher unemployment rates 4.4% remain a challenge.
• Outlook: Potential to improve significantly with interest rate cuts, but currently ranks lower due to unemployment.

5. New South Wales (NSW)

• Current Job Market: Employment growth at 2.6%, below the national average of 3.1%. Unemployment rate at 3.8%, low but impacted by high interest rates. Slight increase in participation rate from 65.7% to 66.2%, indicating workforce engagement.
• Key Sectors: Positive Growth: Healthcare and social assistance are strong. Challenges: Retail trade suffered 40,000 job losses as consumer spending declined.
• Outlook: With interest rate cuts expected, NSW could see improved job creation, especially in retail and construction.

4. Northern Territory

• Current Job Market: Unemployment rate dropped from 5% to 4.2%, a significant improvement. Employment growth at 2.0%, with fewer people unemployed compared to last year. Youth unemployment decreased to 9.7% from 11.2% 1 year prior, showing a positive trend.
• Unique Strengths: Strong job ads and demand for workers, outperforming expectations.
• Outlook: Positive economic trends could continue, making NT an area to watch for future growth.

3. Australian Capital Territory (ACT)

• Current Job Market: Unemployment rate at 3.4%, the lowest in Australia. Modest employment growth (2.7%), with a strong public sector presence. Public administration jobs increased from 28.2% to 30% of total employment.
• Unique Factors: Low unemployment partially due to a transient population, with many leaving Canberra when they lose jobs.
• Outlook: Stable job market with ongoing government hiring, though highly dependent on public sector employment.

2. Western Australia (WA)

• Current Job Market: Employment growth at 3.5% above the national average. Unemployment rate has ticked up at 3.6%, but is still at 10 year lows reflecting a strong job market. Healthcare and education sectors growth continue to drive employment.
• Challenges: Job ads down 11.7% annually, indicating a potential future slowdown.
• Outlook: WA remains a powerhouse, but job growth may moderate as economic conditions change.

1. Queensland

• Current Job Market: Employment growth at 4%, one the strongest in the nation. Unemployment rate steady at 4.1%, with a notable 1% increase in participation rate.
• Key Sectors: Consistent positive employment trends across major sectors.
• Outlook: Best-performing job market with robust population growth and strong employment figures, making it highly appealing for investment.

My Key Takeaways for Property Investors

Markets to Be Cautious Of: South Australia: The state is experiencing negative employment growth, indicating job losses and potential economic stagnation. This downturn could adversely affect housing demand and property values, making it a less favourable market for investment at this time.

Markets to Watch: Northern Territory: It has improved dramatically from typically much higher unemployment rates.? Despite house prices falling, there is a drastic improvement in the employment market that suggests potential improvement in housing demand in the years ahead.

Medium-Term Outlook: New South Wales (NSW) and Victoria (VIC): Anticipated 4-5 interest rate cuts over the coming year are expected to boost discretionary spending, leading to job growth, particularly in the retail sector, which has faced significant cutbacks.

Revitalised business activity is also projected to increase job advertisements, supported by improved credit access and favourable macroeconomic tailwinds. These factors position NSW and VIC as markets to watch for potential investment opportunities in the near future.