It’s nice to know that people think highly of you, and that you’ll be missed when the fateful day arrives, but no one wants a dry run of the experience.? Spare a thought then for Bulgarian pro footballer Petko Ganchev who’s former club held a minute’s silence for his death before their game on Sunday only for the club to be told during the game that Petko is alive and well.?
These are the mid rates at 5:55 today:
Brent Crude = $71.21 per barrel
- We didn’t quite get there but yesterday the Rand made a decent attempt at breaking below R18.00 to the Dollar as we made it from R18.20 at the open all the way to R18.06 by the late afternoon session.? This is the second time that we’ve hit R18.06 this month and if we do manage to get below R18.00 it would be the first time since the 18th of December.?
- The Dollar Index has fallen by 6% since hitting its recent high in late January and yesterday was another case of the index suffering a setback thanks to weaker than expected US market data, a setback that allowed the Rand to hit R18.06.? Recent weeks have been characterised by concerns around the health of the US economy, especially when it comes to Trump’s tariff policies and how those might curb economic activity, and so yesterday’s US retail sales report took on significant importance.? At a headline level the numbers disappointed with January’s already deep contraction of -0.9% being revised even lower to -1.2% while February’s 0.2% reading fell way short of the projected 0.7% growth.? ??
- Analysts are split on the positives and the negatives from yesterday’s US retail sales report with some pointing to the sluggish numbers as evidence of a slowing economy while others stress that growth, even though it was lower than expected, is still growth and suggests that the US is not headed towards a recession.? Either way, the inference has been that cooler demand from the US consumer could counter any upward inflationary pressure from Trump’s tariff policies, and as such the FED might not need to cut rates too often.? Thankfully we get a FED policy statement as soon as tomorrow which should throw more light onto which way they are thinking.
- Dollar weakness is in the mix but as has been the case for a while now we’ve also got Euro strength which is applying downward pressure to the Dollar Index.? The past few days have seen the Green Party in Germany drop their opposition to the incoming government’s plans to significantly ramp up spending, and yesterday Germany’s constitutional court threw out challenges from other smaller parties which paves the way for their parliament to discuss the spending plans today.? Each development has bolstered the Euro while denting the Dollar
- The following from Reuters suggests that the Euro has even further to climb:? The Euro , which has advanced in recent sessions, lifted by hopes of?a German fiscal deal, was 0.4% higher at $1.0923. The common currency was just shy of $1.0947 it hit last week, its highest since October 11. Analysts at Societe Generale said on Monday that they had changed their currency forecasts "to reflect Germany's planned fiscal changes, the U.S. economy's self-inflicted (relative) fragility, and Japan's escape from deflation.” They see the Euro at $1.13 by year-end, up nearly 4% from current levels.
- No local market data today.
- Possible USD mid rate trading ranges in the Rand today are R18.00 and R18.30.
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