It’s a tricky day for fireworks out there as those with their Guy Fawkes rockets at the ready are likely to have their plans washed out by this non-stop KZN rain.? The 5th of November is also the day that the US votes for their next president, and the chances for fireworks in the States are much higher.?
These are the mid rates at 5:50 today:
Brent Crude = $75.11 per barrel
- Yesterday was a classic example of the calm before the storm with traders reluctant to make any big moves this close to the US election.? We opened the day at R17.52 to the Dollar and barely moved from this level throughout the day.
- With the currency market drifting sideways yesterday the session was all about scenario planning and predictions around what would happen if Trump wins, if Harris wins, if Republicans take control of the House and the Senate, if Democrats manage a clean sweep or if the current political gridlock remains in place with Republicans and Democrats each claiming a level of government.? The many permutations are all that’s being reported on across financial news outlets and thank goodness that the big day has finally arrived so that the world can move on.? The only question, and it’s a big question, is how soon will we know the result?? ?
- From the Rand’s perspective things improved for us early yesterday when a trusted poll showed Harris taking a surprising and commanding lead in Iowa which is traditionally a Republican state, and suggests that she could be making inroads into other Republican strongholds.? The Dollar Index fell back on this news which allowed us to open at R17.52, but while this poll shifted sentiment towards Harris one only needs to look at the many prediction tools which have the candidates neck and neck, and therefore too tight a race to call.? As an example, Reuters is reporting that RealClearPolitics has Trump ahead by 48.5% to 48.4% which suggests the closest election on record.
- Tens of millions of Americans have already cast early ballots but the main vote kicks off today, and while their system is usually very fast at declaring a winner things could be different given how close the race is, along with the potential for the result to be contested.? We could see volatility in the Dollar as things unfold and the following is from Reuters: In the US?presidential race, Democratic candidate?Kamala Harris?and Republican candidate?Donald Trump?remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday's vote. It?might not?be clear who won for days after voting ends. "(Tuesday) will shape the direction of the world economy and geopolitics for the next four years," Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. They cautioned that "there remains a large degree of uncertainty around both the result, including the very tight House (of Representatives) race, and when we will know it."
- There is very little else to report.? Yes, we get services PMI reports both locally and abroad today, yes the Australian central bank delivers their latest policy statement today and yes, we get policy statements from the FED, the Bank of England and central banks from Norway and Finland this week but US election headlines will drown everything out until we know who has won, and what the levels of US government look like.? Hopefully the results are announced soon and everything goes smoothly, and that the security fences that have been erected around the White House and other strategic sites across Washington are not put to the test.?
- Local market data today sees our services PMI report at 9:15.
- Possible USD mid rate trading ranges in the Rand today are R17.35 and R17.65.
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