RAND: Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?
Carnegie: Reforestation in Jordan
April 12, 2022
By ZOE H. ROBBIN?
Forestation and reforestation are key facets of climate change mitigation. According to the?World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies (WOCAT) , afforestation is the planting of trees or forest cover on land which historically did not contain forests, while reforestation is the planting of trees or forest cover on land which previously contained forest that was converted to another land use. Both afforestation and reforestation are aspects of a larger portfolio of?sustainable land management ?policies that aim to combat desertification, restore degraded soil, and conserve biological diversity, and ultimately mitigate climate change.?
Sustainable land management is vital for countries like Jordan, which faces severe threats from climate change while remaining reliant on agriculture. The degradation of Jordan’s natural ecosystems has occurred as farmers and shepherds race to use the nation’s limited resources in a tragedy of the commons. Although reforestation can pit farmers and policymakers on opposing sides by placing limits on grazing and farming, the Jordanian government has pursued a unique arrangement to begin reforesting swaths of the Jordan Valley. As early successes in reforestation demonstrate longevity and potential for expansion, governments in water-parched regions should heed this collaborative model of ecological restoration.?
Recognizing the severe risks stemming from climate change, the Jordanian government featured reforestation as a key component in its 2021?National Climate Change Adaptation Plan . The government is also working with EcoPeace Middle East - Jordan to put this policy into action by sectioning off a portion of the Jordan Valley for ecological restoration and technological testing. Since its establishment in 2004, the EcoPark has?transformed? a bare segment of land in the hills of north-western Jordan into a tree-filled, ecological habitat. In addition to pioneering new water management technologies, the EcoPark also accomplished this feat through placing strict limits on farming and grazing.?
“Through the EcoPark, we are selling a model for sustainability… Our priority is bringing forests and ecosystems back to nature. If you lose the ecosystems, the climate, and the water, then Jordan cannot support our existence. We need to bring back the natural ecosystems to maintain the stability of the country,” says Abdel Rahman Sultan, the Deputy Director of EcoPeace Middle East - Jordan.?
Local communities around the EcoPark initially mounted opposition to the new restrictions on grazing and farming. According to Yehia Moubarek, a local shepherd who now works with the EcoPark, the surrounding community broke into the EcoPark in its early days, pulling out trees by the roots to demonstrate their opposition. However, the EcoPark learned to involve local community members in its mission and eventually won their support.?
“The people who started the EcoPark asked us to help plant the trees, and we started working together to protect this land,” remembers Inas Hishan, a young woman from the area who now works with the EcoPark. As the EcoPark yielded lush fields and brought in waves of tourists, local communities have responded with support.?
Outside of Jordan, reforestation and afforestation policies have been accomplished across the world, from?Tunisia? to?Spain . In the?United Arab Emirates , planting trees has also served as a valuable strategy to prevent sand encroachment and protect infrastructure. However, some reforestation projects have drawn criticism: for example, in?Israel’s Yatir Forest , there is evidence that reforestation may have been detrimental to desert ecosystems despite the high cost of implementation. Looking forward, scientists must focus on selecting apt environments for reforestation such as the?Sahel and North Australia , where reforestation could exact dramatic – and positive – benefits on the global climate. In these two areas in particular, reforestation has the potential to?shift wind systems , creating rain and facilitating the growth of natural forests. As scientists and environmentalists set their sights on new locations in Jordan for reforestation, the EcoPark model of hiring local community members and promoting economic development will be a valuable reference.?
Zoe E. Rubin is a researcher based in Amman, Jordan, where she is working to analyze USAID, EU, and other development initiatives with INTEGRATED. She is a senior fellow at Humanity in Action and a member of the NextGen Middle East Working Group of Foreign Policy for America.
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Carnegie does not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of Carnegie, its staff, or its trustees.
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Gleiss – Lutz:
AUSSENWIRTSCHAFTSRECHT
AUSSENWIRTSCHAFTSRECHT UPDATE: N?CHSTE SANKTIONEN DER EU UND DER USA GEGEN RUSSLAND TRETEN IN KRAFT; RUSSISCHE MASSNAHMEN
Weitere Wirtschaftssanktionen der EU gegen Russland: Am 9. April 2022 ist das fünfte Sanktionspaket der EU in Kraft getreten. Dieses Ma?nahmenbündel soll den Druck auf die russische Regierung und die russische Wirtschaft weiter erh?hen sowie die Ressourcen des Kreml begrenzen. Das Paket enth?lt weitere Ma?nahmen, darunter diverse Einfuhrverbote russischer Erzeugnisse in die EU, die Einschr?nkung des Warentransports mit russischen Schiffen und Fahrzeugen und weitere Ausfuhrverbote, vor allem im Maschinen- und Computerbereich. Bestehende personenbezogenen Sanktionen werden erweitert, ein Transaktionsverbot für eine Reihe wichtiger russischer Banken und die Schlie?ung von Schlupfl?chern im Bereich des sanktionierten Zahlungsverkehrs sind ebenfalls Gegenstand der neuesten Ma?nahmen.
Zum vollst?ndigen Beitrag:?https://lnkd.in/dDxaSAHp ?
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Al Arabiya: World Bank preparing $1.5 billion aid package for Ukraine
The World Bank is preparing a $1.5 billion support package for war-torn Ukraine, including a $1 billion payment from the development lender’s fund for the poorest countries, World Bank President David Malpass said on Tuesday.
Malpass, speaking in Warsaw, said the package was enabled by Monday’s approval of $1 billion in International Development Association (IDA) aid by donor and recipient countries as well as a $100 million IDA payment to neighboring Moldova.?
In remarks ahead of next week’s World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, Malpass said the bank’s support was helping Ukraine provide critical services, including paying wages for hospital workers, pensions and social programs.
“The World Bank was created in 1944 to help Europe rebuild after World War II. As we did then, we will be ready to help Ukraine with reconstruction when the time comes,” Malpass said.?
The plan still needs full approval by the World Bank’s board of directors in coming weeks, a World Bank spokesperson said.?
Malpass did not specify the source of the additional $500 million for Ukraine.
The aid comes on top of about $923 million in fast-disbursing financing approved by the World Bank last month, which also includes donor country contributions.?
Malpass said the World Bank was in close contact with Ukrainian authorities to provide support and was working to assist Ukrainian refugees and the countries hosting them.
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?He said the World Bank was analyzing global impacts of the war in Ukraine, including the spike in food and energy prices, and is “preparing a surge crisis response that will provide focused support for developing countries.”?
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RAND: Could Insurgency Offer Ukraine a Decisive Edge?
April 6, 2022
While insurgency rarely offers a path to early victory, a campaign of popular resistance that supports the continuing conventional battle could give overmatched Ukraine an edge in its?fight against Russian occupiers .
The?conflict in Ukraine ?looks likely to provide Europe's first large-scale insurgency since the end of Ukrainian resistance to the Soviet and Polish reoccupation of the Ukrainian populated areas formerly overrun by the Germans during World War II.
Ukraine's post–World War II?resistance ?was led by the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, a far-right group that had collaborated with the Germans and survived long enough to also receive support from the CIA. It is memories of this insurgency, which the CIA credited with having killed 35,000 Soviet soldiers, police, and Communist Party officials, that Putin is trying to revive when he labels the current Ukrainian leadership as Nazis.
Insurgency has since become the world's most common form of warfare, employed by national liberation movements to free themselves from European colonial rule, by Marxist revolutionaries and Islamist militants, and by the United States and the Soviet Union in proxy conflicts around the world.
A force as large as 800,000 soldiers and police might be required to fully pacify all of Ukraine. That is five times the number Russia has deployed at present.
Experience shows that insurgent campaigns can last decades, that external assistance and an adjacent sanctuary are often critical to insurgent success, and that counterinsurgency campaigns can be very long and manpower-intensive. U.S. military doctrine, for instance, cites a ratio of 50 counterinsurgents for every 1,000 inhabitants. This suggests that a force as large as 800,000 soldiers and police might be required to fully pacify all of Ukraine. That is five times the number Russia has deployed at present.
The Ukrainian leadership has already begun to form a resistance movement to fight behind enemy lines. They already have established the legal and organizational basis for such an activity. They've created a website with advice directed to ordinary citizens looking to engage in resistance?activities .
And there seems little doubt that many will do so. But the ability to sustain a robust insurgency in the face of massive Russian repression will likely be heavily influenced by the results of the conventional battle. Will the Ukrainian government retain control of significant territory? Will the conventional battle continue? If the answer to these questions is no, will a neighboring state be willing to allow its territory to be used to mount and sustain an insurgency?
Should the Ukrainian government be forced into exile, its resistance movement would find itself in a position similar to that of the French?resistants?between the fall of France (June 1940) and D-Day (June 1944). Over those four years, clandestine networks were built that focused on intelligence, information operations, and small-scale sabotage, keeping the flame of nationalism burning and preparing for the arrival of Allied forces. Only once the conventional battle resumed, however, were the risks and costs of mounting a full-fledged insurgency deemed commensurate with the potential benefits. And in the Ukrainian case, an allied rescue force probably won't be coming.
NATO governments are likely to be willing to host a Ukrainian government in exile should that become necessary. Allowing that government to direct and sustain a large-scale insurgent campaign from NATO territory is another matter. Even if the Russians forbore from mounting an overt attack on such a sanctuary, one would have to expect them to take deniable steps to disrupt activity, including sabotage, assassinations, and cyberattacks.
The ability to sustain a robust insurgency in the face of massive Russian repression will likely be heavily influenced by the results of the conventional battle.
Consequently, the relevant border between NATO and occupied Ukraine could see infiltration by both sides, as insurgents and counterinsurgents traveled in both directions, in all likelihood in parallel with criminal networks engaged in sanctions evasion. The danger of escalation could be ever present.
How much latitude to afford a Ukrainian insurgency would be a decision for one or more of the potential host countries—Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and/or Romania—but also for the rest of the alliance, which would be committed to defend the host state in the event of a Russian attack. This could well result in restrictions being placed that would limit the scope of resistance.
A negotiated cease-fire would probably also require some restraint on resistance activities if it is to hold for any length of time.
Insurgency is commonly viewed as an alternative to conventional combat, the choice of the weaker party, which cannot prevail in a stand-up fight. Such conflicts become endurance contests that can take decades to resolve. But insurgency as a complement to conventional battle can yield much quicker results by threatening enemy lines of communication and drawing off his forces from the main battle.
Insurgency ?alone offers, at best, the prospect of distant success at tremendous cost. When combined with a stalemated but still active conventional battle, however, it may provide the defender the decisive edge.
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James Dobbins, a former assistant secretary of state for Europe, is a senior fellow and distinguished chair in diplomacy and security at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. He's the author of?“Foreign Service; Five Decades on the Frontlines of American Diplomacy.”
This commentary originally appeared on?The Hill ?on April 6, 2022. Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.
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Interesting article re: use of forestation...insurgency article, descending from a soldier of the 1863 Insurrection in Poland, my sense is that the attitude of most people in the larger region toward any Russian control is to be free of it...and Europe would be wise in doing all it can to support their defense of their sovereignty...