The rally in risk assets resumed last week...

The rally in risk assets resumed last week, albeit more slowly and amid choppy two-way trading. Oil prices did, however, break away from the pack, with crude up 10% for the week.

Not surprisingly, the week's top performing currencies were the Russian ruble and the Colombian peso, whose economies are highly dependent on energy exports. On the weak side, sterling underperformed all other G10 currencies, as fears of a hard Brexit continue to hound the British currency.

This week we will get the critical PMIs of business activity for June in the Eurozone, the US and the UK. These are the most reliable advance indicators of the state of the economy. In the past few weeks, economic data has tended to surprise to the upside.

We expect that trend to continue, and it is likely that some indices will break back up above the key 50 level that indicates a return to economic expansion.