Is this rally really a reality? Are the prospects, which are depicted in the markets really so good?
Kai W. Schwab
Financial markets activist, crypto enthusiast, strategic consultant, mentor, speaker
If you look at the markets in the last few days, you can see the impact of the development of a vaccine and the constant news about progress.
Hardly a day goes by when news of test series and the like is not disseminated.
And the markets love it.
Just as the markets loved big tech stocks – until suddenly yesterday more well-known and long-established names were in demand again.
And does the hope of an early availability of a vaccine justify the hope of an early end to this crisis?
In my opinion NO!
Of course, everything is great at the moment when a new message about advances in vaccine research is released.
But is it really good to develop such an important drug under constant pressure from Wall Street? We all know that it usually takes 10 years or more to develop a safe vaccine. And now the same result should be available after only 10 months – and with a new and not yet fully mature procedure?
And even if the vaccine is available in a few months (realistically in the first to second quarter of 2021), does the real economy manage to survive for so long?
And will all people, or at least a large part of them, get vaccinated at all?
Moreover, no one has really dealt with the possible setbacks in vaccine development.
What happens in the markets when there are suddenly reports of possible massive side effects of vaccination?
What happens if the vaccine has only a temporary effect and after a short time the antibodies disappear again?
A study from Germany allows this assumption. At the Hospital Munich Schwabing, where Germany's first corona patients were treated, it has now been found that a large number of former infected people experience a massive decrease in antibodies within a very short time.
Will there be another crash? How far will it take the markets back into the deep?
One should at least now exercise some caution in investment decisions and always be prepared for everything – after all, the crisis is far from over!