Is it raining enough?
Is it raining enough??
With Panama’s rainy season starting in October, the country has been moving away from its driest months between April and June which impacts the country’s water availability. But the question always remains – will the rain bring enough water to the Gatun Lake which supplies the Panama Canal?
?Rainfall is one of the determining factors for the Canal’s freshwater surcharge and transit statistics (see below current fee formula calculated at the lowest variable level). It will also play a role in the yet-to-be-confirmed Water Management System, a water conservation project which aims to improve the quantity, quality and control of the Canal’s water supply.
?The fee has two components:
Water limitation is the most important issue that the ACP (Panama Canal Authorities) faces, even more important than the transit forecasts I previously addressed as predicting rainfall is considerably harder than forecasting traffic (many established shipping routes pass via Panama, and efforts are being made to ensure the route remains a priority for ship owners and operators).
Panama has experienced a particularly "wet" year. While the water levels are not as high as in 2021, they are still significant enough. Although I am not an expert on weather trends, statistically speaking, drier years are likely to occur in 2023 or 2024 unless there are dramatic changes to the weather patterns.
Due to the increased demand and higher fees collected by the ACP, they could possibly consider increasing transits, which would necessitate expanding the Canal. However, without having control over water retention in Panama, the expansion would have to wait.
Alexei’s Personal Tip ?
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You, the customer, and we, the ships agent, have no control in predicting or adjusting the rainfall in Panama. However, as a collective we can email the ACP to ask what backup plans they will implement to create a water-saving solution to prevent using fresh water supplies from the reservoir, and more importantly, when that will happen. If the tolls increase can be projected for the next four years, so should the water conservation project.
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