Rainfall Scenarios of March-April-May 2022

This forecast was issued in January 2022 and is based on Astronomical Cycles of Jupiter, Saturn, Mercury, Venus and the Moon on experimental basis. The cycles are referenced on key phases of the planets, e.g. Conjunctions and oppositions of the planets as well as the Moon's Apogee-Perigee and Full Moon-New Moon phases.

Forecast Summary

The season is likely to be largely wet in the highlands both to the East and West of the Rift valley. Generally, the rainfall may come in 4 events between February 2022 and July 2022. Most of the rainfall will be received in the 2nd/3rd week of February, 2nd and 3rd week of March, most of April and May (mainly in the highlands and coast) and most of June (see Table 2). Combined wet / cold conditions may be common in the months of April, May and June. The northern parts will be generally dry, however, there may be some rainfall incursions from time to time.?

Forecast by Region

?1)?????Most areas of South East may experience some grass rains for some days in the middle of February which may be characterized by isolated storms. The season may have an onset in the 1st week of March and may be particularly wet in the middle of March before dry spells set in.?Rains may continue from the 3rd week of April to the 2nd week of May. The rest of the season will be relatively dry until the beginning of June when the area may start receiving rains producing a wet-cold condition most the time until the 1st week or 2nd week of July 2022.

2)?????The Highlands East of the Rift valley may experience grass rains in the middle of February which may be stormy from time to time before a dry spell sets-in through March until the beginning of April. The proper season onset may come in the 2nd week of April and the rains may extend until the 3rd week of May. The middle of May is likely to experience a lot of rainfall. These rains may continue into the month of June until the beginning of July. We may consider the 1st week of July as the cessation period of the seasonal rains for some areas and 3rd week of May for others.

?3)?????The coastal region, may have isolated cases of rainfall in the beginning of March before a dry period sets-in until April. ?The season onset is set at the 2nd week of April and the rains will be experienced until the 3rd or 4th week of May. In the middle of April, the coast region may experience cases of wet-cold conditions and these same conditions may be felt from the last half of June to the 1st half of July mainly in the southern coast.

?4)?????The North Western region will be mainly dry. There is a chance of short stormy weather in the middle of February, and also the middle of March, followed by dry spells through to the end of April. The 4th week of April may mark the onset of the season and may run up to the 2nd week of May. The middle of May may mark the cessation period of the season in this region.

?5)?????The North Eastern region will be dry especially in counties bordering Ethiopia to the north. There may be rains in the 3rd week of March in these areas but towards the south the rains may come in in the 3rd week of February and the 2nd to 3rd week of April. The rest of the period may be dominated by a Dry-Cold condition until July.

?6)?????The Highlands to the west of the Rift valley may start with grass rains in the middle of February followed by dry spells and then continue from the 1st week to the 3rd week of March. The months of April and May will be wet. A wet-cold condition may be experienced in June and may extend the beginning of July.