Raila’s AU Flop: Kenya’s Diplomatic Comedy of Errors

Raila Odinga’s failure to clinch the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship has left Kenyans in a peculiar state of emotional limbo. For some, it is a moment of unbridled celebration, a chance to finally bid farewell to a man whose political shadow has loomed large over the nation for decades. For others, it is a time of mourning, a recognition that Kenya has lost an opportunity to place one of its own at the helm of a continental body. But beyond the theatrics of celebration and mourning lies a more sobering reality: Raila’s failure is not just a personal setback but a glaring indictment of Kenya’s foreign policy and its inability to rally continental support for its candidates. It is also a stark reminder that even the most enduring political icons are not immune to the passage of time.

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Let’s start with the elephant in the room: Kenyan foreign policy. Or should we say, the lack thereof? Raila’s bid for the AUC chairmanship was doomed from the start, not because he lacked the credentials or the charisma, but because Kenya’s diplomatic machinery has all the finesse of a bull in a china shop. For a country that prides itself on being a regional powerhouse, Kenya’s ability to rally continental support for its candidates is, to put it mildly, underwhelming. The government’s half-hearted support for Raila’s bid was as practical as a rain dance in the Sahara. While other countries were busy lobbying, cutting deals, and building alliances, Kenya seemed content to sit back and hope for the best. The result? Raila’s candidacy fizzled out like a damp firework, leaving Kenyans to wonder whether their government even cared in the first place.

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Of course, it doesn’t help that Raila himself is no spring chicken. At 80 years old, he is closer to receiving a lifetime achievement award than he is to leading a continental body. His age and reputation as a divisive figure in Kenyan politics made him a hard sell to the rest of Africa. Let’s face it: the African Union is not exactly known for its appetite for controversy, and Raila’s brand of politics, often characterised by confrontation and brinkmanship, is not exactly what you would call diplomatic. His failure to secure the AUC job is a reminder that the world of international diplomacy is a far cry from the rough-and-tumble of Kenyan politics. In the AU, you need more than just charisma and a knack for rallying crowds; you need the ability to build consensus and navigate complex geopolitical dynamics. Unfortunately for Raila, these are not exactly his strong suits.

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But let’s not kid ourselves: Raila’s failure is not just a reflection of his limitations or Kenya’s diplomatic ineptitude. It is also a testament to the shifting tides of Kenyan politics. Raila has been the face of opposition politics for decades, a symbol of resistance against authoritarianism and injustice. But times have changed, and so has the political landscape. The new generation of leaders, unburdened by the baggage of the past, has brought fresh ideas and energy to the table.

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In contrast, Raila’s politics often feel like a throwback to a bygone era, a nostalgic reminder of a time when the fight for multiparty democracy and constitutional reform dominated the national discourse. While his contributions to Kenya’s democratic journey cannot be overstated, there is a growing sense that his time has passed. The question is not whether Raila is still relevant but whether he will ever be again.

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Raila’s failure presents a unique set of challenges for the current government. On the one hand, his continued presence in the political arena ensures that the opposition remains a force to be reckoned with. On the other hand, his diminished influence and advancing age make him a less formidable opponent than he once was. This creates a paradox for the government: how do they deal with a political icon who is both a threat and a non-threat? One option is to marginalise him further, relegating him to the fringes of political discourse. The government could render him irrelevant by ignoring him and focusing on their agenda. However, this strategy is not without risks. Raila’s ability to mobilise his base and galvanise public opinion should not be underestimated. Even in his twilight years, he remains a master of political theater, capable of capturing the nation’s attention with a single gesture or statement.

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Another option is to co-opt him, offering him a symbolic role in exchange for his silence. This approach has been tried before, with mixed results. Raila’s brief dalliance with the Jubilee government in the so-called “handshake” with former President Uhuru Kenyatta was seen by many as a betrayal of his principles. While it brought temporary stability to the country, it also eroded his credibility as an opposition leader. Any attempt to co-opt him now would likely be met with skepticism from his supporters and detractors. The government is caught between a rock and a hard place, unsure of how to handle a man who refuses to fade into the background.

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Perhaps Raila’s most prudent course of action is to retire from active politics and retreat to his home in Bondo. At 80, he has more than earned the right to enjoy his golden years in peace, surrounded by his family and grandchildren. Retirement would allow him to preserve his legacy as a champion of democracy and social justice, rather than risk tarnishing it with futile attempts to remain relevant in a changing world. It would also be a gift to the nation. By stepping aside, Raila would create space for a new generation of leaders to emerge and take the opposition in a new direction. His departure would force the government to confront its shortcomings, rather than using him as a convenient scapegoat for its failures. In this sense, Raila’s retirement could be the ultimate act of statesmanship, a final sacrifice for the greater good of the country he has served for so long.

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Raila Odinga’s failure to secure the AU job marks the end of an era in Kenyan politics. For decades, he has been a towering figure, a symbol of hope and resistance for millions of Kenyans. Yet, as the world around him changes, he risks becoming a relic of the past, a once-great leader struggling to find his place in a new political order. His failure is a reminder that even the most enduring political icons are not immune to the passage of time. It is also a wake up call for Kenya’s foreign policy, which must do better if it hopes to compete on the continental stage. As for Raila, the path forward is unclear. Should he continue to fight, risking irrelevance and ridicule? Or should he retire, preserving his legacy and creating a new generation of leaders? The choice is his, but one thing is certain: Raila Odinga’s impact on Kenyan politics will be felt for generations to come. Whether he chooses to fade into the sunset or go out with a bang, his story is a testament to the enduring power of resilience, courage, and the indomitable spirit of a true political titan.