Railamania and Railaphobia in Context!

Prologue

The man Raila Odinga who most of us know today was the creation of a very bad political system. The fact that he is still critically relevant to Kenya’s politics some four good decades on, especially after what was the very necessary Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Report of 2013, literally means that our governance system needs tweaking, and very fast indeed!

Background Peek

Is it time the Luo became weary of Raila Amolo Odinga? I want to discuss this monumental issue as a Luo who is directly impacted by its relevance, and, because it bears real significance to the socio-economic development of a major portion of Kenya’s population. Yes, not only Luos support Raila overwhelmingly, and yet again, not all Luos do this. But then again, the maniacal support from the Luo majority block is very relevant to this discussion. Again, very few Kenyans are more qualified to lead this discussion than I am. Why? One, I grew up fairly close to the Odinga family. Two, I’m a published author of a global human history and so, I can easily draw on related events in remote societies away from Kenya. In that book alone, I particularly analysed and credited Raila’s democratic contribution under one befitting chapter subtitle - Your hero, my villain! Three, because I am data scientist, analytics (read analysis) has been my professional occupation for more than a quarter century.

Now, the maniacal relationship that has existed between Raila and a major population of the Luo community is what can be termed as an association of empathy. As opposed to logical relationships such as those pertaining to scientific analytics, this kind of relationship is bereft of pragmatic accountability in most situations. Having been particularly marginalised by past regimes following Oginga Odinga’s disagreement with Jomo Kenyatta, and his eventual formation of the KPU party in 1966, the Luo have mostly espoused opposition politics with a zeal for democratic reforms. This was particularly taken a notch higher subsequent to the Kisumu riots of 1969, where Kenyatta was pelted with stones. With Raila’s state repressions under countless detentions and his ultimate emergence as a presidential candidate initially in 1997, he effectively took the mantle from his late father as the de-facto Luo political leader. And with that, Raila has proven time and time again when leading his many followers (not supporters) from across the country’s many tribes, that he is courageous enough to brave tear gas, cannon water, rubber, and even live bullets during political demonstrations!

Negative Energy

Do I have example cases of political marginalisation as a strategy for targeting various individuals from the Luo community? Plenty, including personal accounts! In the year 1984, I had excelled in my A’ level exams and I was on my way to study electrical engineering at the University of Nairobi. Upon hearing of this feat, Jaramogi Oginga sent for me for an official audience in Kisumu in early 1985. At the time, a plan was put in place to facilitate my continuing of the said studies in Czechoslovakia. Whereas this plan later fell through, I still remember an advice from one of my professional uncles in opposing this grand idea. He had reiterated how following on the plan was tantamount to the government of the day opening a targeted-file in my name from then on! It suffices to note here as well, that part of the failure to the Czechoslovakia project emanated from Oginga Odinga’s very brief and rather acrimonious trial re-entry into Kenya’s political mainstream, courtesy of then president Moi. Oginga’s sole crime at the time came from having explained to the country how Jomo Kenyatta who was Kenya’s first president was a land grabber. This was the fault that led to their political differences soon after the country’s independence, and his later formation of the KPU party.

Back to the illogical association of empathy that exists between Raila and the larger Luo community. Such relationships tend to naturally guarantee pitfalls from the many instances of negative energy therein. Negative energy in this instance, alludes to individuals who are usually carriers of bad luck, but tend to be in one’s supporters’ corner simply because of one form of illogical association or another! It is this negative energy which in most instances again, has led to adherent supporters of Raila’s cause, adopting premature convictions of winning presidential elections even before casting real votes. Such is the case of a close family member of Raila’s, who went on record stipulating that because his 2022 presidential bid exhibited the state support which he has never had, victory was henceforth guaranteed! Implications of negative energy under these circumstances include the lessening of enthusiasm from the potential voting bloc, as well as the baseless overconfidence, whereby an assured presidential campaign victory without realistic strategies during the actual voting and polling operations, is loosely predicted where none exists at all!

If negative energy bearers have been prime culprits in many of the faults in Raila’s presidential candidacy escapades, a cultural trait of the Luo community has been the other political faultline. The Luo are a fairly sophisticated people, a trait that is generally termed Pedho! With Pedho, the average Luo is likened to a propensity for most things foreign (selectively). It is no wonder therefore that when Pedho is integrated into the aforementioned illogical association of empathy, the mostly trapped lot of the Luo community has been easily sold to the largely misconstrued foreign terminologies such as Canaan or Reggae, as worthy formulations of campaign gimmicks. While still under this untamed emotional euphoria, that average Luo voter has often flatly fallen prey to the middlemen-con-politicians, when that voter has largely convinced himself or herself of electing these sleazy candidates into political offices as a trust service to Baba!

Nightmare Scenario One – Railaphobia!

At the national stage, Raila Odinga’s personality presents a nightmare scenario as it divides the political spectrum right in the middle, and it cuts both ways! From the narration of a deceased former vice president who acutely crossed paths with the man in yet another opposition party formed by Oginga Odinga, only Railamania and Railaphobia exist in Kenya’s national political spectrum!

Because of this bipolar division around the country’s political power play, those perceived to be sympathisers of the Railamania cause have been mostly left holding the wrong end of the stick when it comes to apportioning national development goodies. Holding the other end of the stick has been the Railaphobia group! Under the late president Daniel Arap Moi who ruled the country for a total of twenty four years, the ruling philosophy was siasa mbaya, maisha mbaya (politics of nonacceptability to the ruling class, political marginalisation)! The current deputy president who was a public administrator in Moi’s government has literally and rather carelessly rekindled this philosophy by reiterating that the new government elected in 2022 has its shareholders. That is a belief that cannot work in a modern world that is getting more polarised by the day. Kenyans for that matter, and like many other citizen the world over, are facing critical economic hardships at various levels with the gap between the rich and the poor widening exponentially.

In view of the realities on the ground currently, sobriety should prevail and both parties (Railamania and Railaphobia) need to come to a discussion table as soon as possible! Why? For long, there has been an ardent belief amongst many that because of an indifferent and a somewhat economically-stable middle class, Kenyans would generally not pour themselves out onto the streets in civil disobedience. Having just pushed those boundaries consistently through street demonstrations over the last few weeks, clear evidences can only confirm that we are all playing with a tinder box as a nation! Further to this, let the ruling class be reminded of the consequential examples from neighbouring countries within our very own regional corridor – Somalia, Rwanda, Uganda, Congo, Ethiopia and Sudan!

Nightmare Scenario Two - Railamania

Now, for any sitting president wishing to inherit the very attractive political base in Luo Nyanza, Railamania presents another unique nightmare scenario. In actual fact, the scenarios presented are three! One, that president can sway the current elected politicians to his ruling coalition, but these public officials will be easily termed by their local supporters as traitors to the Railamania cause! Two, that same president may opt to cosy up to the region’s political rejects, but this scenario is the riskiest as it tangentially pits him against Raila’s political fighting speciality termed Olengo (wrestling in the mud)! Three, dangling any political goodies such as infrastructure developments through the local leaders would still not guarantee any success. How come? Because the average Luo will easily term these as rightfully deserved, but belated political goodies that the region has been blatantly denied by past regimes!

What would therefore be a workable solution? This would have to be an astute strategy that intently targets and demystifies the illogical association of empathy (emotions) that is apportioned to Railamania. It should be predominantly led by fairly neutral faces, possibly professionals who are scantly tainted by Railamania, with the support of the political order, while also adopting the most appropriate channels of mass delivery in everything development, and its sustainability relevances!

Prescriptive Analytics

Indeed, Raila’s positive democratic contributions have been noted at the national level. But then again, the big question is how much of that has really translated into economic development for the average Luo? For a good portion of Luos naturally, real political development from decades in the opposition has mostly related to that of a child who has only grown up on his mother’s cooking! He is bound to believe that his mother is the best cook in the whole wide world! Picking from prescriptive analytics which happens to be one of the five, in fact the solution-defining scope from an envisaged analytics problem, and in view of the current political events, this category of Luos may be best served by a different cook! After all, time is of the essence, some of us have definitely served our cause in opposition politics, and, any different tasty food from a different mother, should not necessarily be a bad option!

Parting Shot

As a parting shot to this weighty discussion, I have personally challenged my fellow Luos in a new song, to reflect on our political challenges as we forge inter-community linkages for our future development. The song is available online including on YouTube. It is aptly entitled Ramogi un Kanye (Where are you Ramogi’s descendants)!