Rail Sector Analysis and Commentary - October 2024

Canada:

Non-intermodal freight loadings (mainly commodities) in Canada fell 9.0% year over year to 21.9 million tonnes in August. While widespread, the decline was driven by large decreases in the loadings of some commodities. In particular, loadings of coal fell sharply by 22.3% (-677 000 tonnes) compared with August 2023. Similarly, loadings of potash dropped 26.5% (-577 000 tonnes) year over year in August 2024; this followed large increases in June (+17.3%) and July (+22.2%).

The declines in some commodities coincided with the work stoppage in late August 2024, which temporarily halted freight movements and port operations. For instance, loadings of lumber fell 22.4% (-163 000 tonnes) year over year in August 2024, while loadings of wheat were down 10.4% (-152 000 tonnes).

United States

Weekly U.S. rail traffic rebounded into positive territory compared to 2023 for the week ending Oct. 12, after falling below previous-year levels a week earlier.

According to statistics from the Association of American Railroads, the week saw 505,033 carloads and intermodal units, up 2.6% from the same week in 2023. That included 222,003 carloads, down 1.3% from the same week a year ago, and 283,030 containers and trailers, up 5.9%.

Source - Government of Canada and United States Federal Government https://www.freightwaves.com/news/weekly-u-s-rail-traffic-back-ahead-of-2023-levels

1. Rail sector capital spending - https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/industrials/railroads/
2. Rail technology - https://www.railtechnologymagazine.com/articles/high-speed-1-line-orrs-five-year-plan-cut-charges-and-improve-efficiency
3. ESG / Rail - https://www.railwaypro.com/wp/hitachi-rail-achieves-substantial-progress-in-sustainability-targets/
4. Quarterly - https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-10-22/norfolk-southern-posts-upbeat-quarterly-results-on-improving-rail-service-volumes Norfolk Southern or https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/CANADIAN-NATIONAL-RAILWAY-1409526/news/Canadian-National-Railway-CN-Announces-Third-Quarter-Results-Form-6-K-48132877/ CN
5. Fires - https://treefrogcreative.ca/california-introduces-new-dashboards-to-monitor-wildfire-resilience-efforts-statewide/ California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)
6. What is next - https://www.trains.com/trn/news-reviews/news-wire/what-happens-if-railroads-cant-grow-nothing-good-analysis/
7. Green fuels - https://www.nationalobserver.com/2024/10/02/analysis/green-fuels-carbon-rail-operators
8. Ports - https://www.hapag-lloyd.com/en/services-information/operational-updates/north-america.html Hapag-Lloyd AG
9. Rail safety - https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/cordel-ai-system-gains-network-rail-certification-for-rail-line-analysis-93CH-3677805 Cordel
10. Tonnage - https://www.truckpartsandservice.com/economic-trends/freight-demand/article/15706508/ata-truck-tonnage-index-falls-in-september

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Paul is a former IBM Customer Success Manager who has deployed over 300 data and AI solutions across industries and geographies for the past 8 years. Paul is a Financial Planning, Analysis, and Reporting SME working with data including integration of macro and micro indicators as part of the integrated business planning and reporting cycle.

Paul_Young_CGA@outlook.com

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