RAIDS ON RUSSIA - UKRAINE'S NEW STRATEGY | RUSSO-UKRAINE WAR
Sean Ian Fischer, MA, EMBA
Leadership Consultant | International Relations and Crisis Analyst | Veterans Advocate | Personal Sovereignty Advocate | Investor at Mustang Leadership Solutions Group? LLC
? 13 August 2024, Sean Ian Fischer. All Rights Reserved. Contributor to Mustang Leadership Solutions Group? LLC
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It is folly, ignorance, and naivete, to think Ukraine would restrict their warfare and military operations only to their country after suffering near total destruction since February 2022 by the Russian Federation. It is logical for Ukraine to conduct raids on Russia proper. It forces the Russian Federation to respond to these raids with fire-power, troops, air power, artillery, and drones, putting Russia on a defensive back-foot.
For Ukraine, there is no need to take Russian territory, but merely to sow continuous chaos, and erode Russian power. Death by a thousand cuts if you will.
Understanding What Russia's True Center of Gravity Is
Perhaps the Ukrainian strategy is to pummel Russian Black Sea Fleet assets in Crimea, conduct hit and run raids in the Donbas and Luhansk regions, and Russian territory, preceded by cyber command and control attacks (much as the Russians did in the Republic of Georgia in 2008). By doing so, Ukraine will not commit their forces to World War I-like entrenched warfare for minimal - to no gains. Although the retaking of Ukrainian territory is the ultimate objective, Ukraine has to deny, disrupt, and destroy Russian power. It can do this by adopting different tactics and strategies. Secondary Ukrainian objectives may be to capture Russian military equipment, munitions, rockets, missiles, and systems to erode Russian war material in the region as much as possible. Maybe Ukraine is adapting a "Sherman's March to the Sea" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherman%27s_March_to_the_Sea ) strategy, or at least similar elements in their new strategy.
Has Ukraine come to the conclusion that it is expending its valuable troop and equipment resources on pointless stalemates in the Donbas, Luhansk, and Crimea regions? Is it draconian to battle it out with Russian forces on those defensive lines? Perhaps Ukraine realizes that Russia's center of gravity is not on Ukrainian territory it is occupying, but on Russia's infrastructure, military bases, stockpiles, and war production capacity. Projectiles, missiles, drones, artillery, aviation and sea borne assets on the front-lines are important targets to hit, but not if the those lost weapons are continuously resupplied. For Ukrainian military decision-makers, it has to make them think that at some point they are needlessly expending their finite strength and resources.
Maybe Ukraine speculated that their best use of their resources is to strike at Russia's infrastructure, stockpiles, bases, and war producing capacity instead, as evidenced by their recent raids into the Kursk region of Russia. Maybe they are ramping up their cyber war against the Russian dark web financing networks. Should Ukraine "allow" Russian forces to make battlefield gains in the Donbas-Luhansk to encircle and destroy those units as they advance - to bait and draw them into the open - release the pressure valve? This tactic was used to great effect and much favored by the Mongols of ancient times.
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Israel-Hamas War Connection
Perhaps the greatest error that may have occurred is Iran revealing their true colors. It has long been an open secret that Iran directly supported and sustained their proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
It is baffling why the US and Israel are negotiating with Hamas to end the Gaza War. Hamas' power does not lie on its own momentum and volition. Their power (as with Hezbollah and the Houthis) comes from Iran. US negotiations should be focused and directed at Tehran, not Iran's proxies. Iran is the center of gravity in the Israel-Hamas War as well as its support for Russia in the Russo-Ukraine War. Additionally, they (Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis) are official terrorist organizations of the United States. The US is wasting American tax-payer dollars in poor, amateur state-craft when it gives power and credibility to non-state actors America officially categorizes as terrorists.
The US made a similar error when former President Trump negotiated a deal with the Taliban terrorist organization (the Afghan government was excluded from the negotiations) in his role as Commander-in-Chief and President. The war that needed to be prosecuted was not necessarily on the ground in Afghanistan, but rather against the Taliban's state and non-state actors that were supporting it. Ultimately, America's withdrawal from Afghanistan as a result of Trump's American-Taliban treaty (and Biden's execution of it), was an unmitigated disaster for American credibility, diplomacy and power. America did not act with wisdom.
Sometimes artful state-craft runs out of road. America, at times, has to play hardball and back up its position with the full spectrum of its power capabilities. In the case of Iran, full and complete sanctions should be imposed. Negotiations should cease with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis. American full spectrum offensive actions should be taken denying, disrupting, and destroying Iran's ability to fund and support their proxies and Russia globally. As with Japan and Nazi Germany during World War II, sometimes diplomacy fails. America's power is not just its military. There are countless other options and/or combinations that can be used. Act with wisdom America.
America's Hesitation Sowed More Chaos, Death, and Destruction in Ukraine
America is at fault for not having provided what Ukraine needed immediately after Russia's invasion in February 2022. The root of this failure can be traced back to President and Commander-in-Chief, Barack Obama, who failed to act when Russia invaded the Ukraine in 2014, resulting in Russian occupied Crimea, Donbas, and Luhansk and the situation we find ourselves in today. As with the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, President Biden, in his role as Commander-in-Chief, is directly responsible and accountable for the protracted Russo-Ukraine War that occurred on his watch.
By not supplying what Ukraine needed then, leads us to where we are today. By not counter-attacking and striking Russia boldly and swiftly in early 2022, the West, NATO, Ukraine, and Russia finds themselves with pointless loss of life, broken economies, and destroyed countries. Nearly 1 million Russians have left Russia. Over 500,000 casualties have occurred in the war thus far. Sweden and Finland joined NATO even though historically neutral. NATO mobilized 800,000 NATO troops to its borders with Russia. American citizens-tax-payers footed a $82B bill (and counting) to keep Ukraine in the fight; more than $200B when combined with other European nation contributions. Czar Vladimir Putin's hubris is embroiling the world into a quasi-Third World War, drawing in China, North Korea, Iran, NATO, the European Union, and Pacific nations.
For the first time since World War II, Russia itself is being attacked. This time however, it is not because of Nazi Germany aggression, but because of its own aggression towards its neighbor, the internationally recognized, independent, and sovereign nation of Ukraine.
The Ultimate Goal is to End Needless Loss of Blood and Treasure on Both Sides
If Russian propaganda was successful convincing Russians that all was well with its "special military operation" into Ukraine, Russians in the Kursk and Belgorod regions will now know viscerally that information is false. Russians in the region will spread the information about the raids by word of mouth which will be known to a large number of its population. But of course, many hundreds of thousands have known that Russian propaganda were lies from the beginning, evidenced by them leaving the country "on vacation."
Russian war lines of communication links, power generation and transmission, gas/oil, telecommunications systems and facilities may be targeted in Ukrainian raids much like the Russians have done to Ukraine since their February 2022 invasion. The Russian Federation should not be shocked or surprised that this turning of the tables wasn't a possibility. That was the risk Czar Vladimir Putin took when he made his decision to invade Ukraine on a massive scale. Since his invasion, he, along with Russia, have been paying the price. However, the price should have been paid far earlier had the West acted swiftly from the outset. Much blood and treasure would have been spared had the West done so.
Ukraine has to be smart as to how it prosecutes their war against Russia. Russia has the advantage in troops, munitions, and equipment. Russia has the ability to outlast their setbacks and still win. They have China, North Korea, and Iran as allies and suppliers. Ukraine, on the other hand, has to preserve its manpower, munitions, and weapons systems. Ukraine has to be careful not to get caught in encirclement and counter offensives by Russian forces on Russian territory. Raids are only successful if they can extricate themselves largely intact.
The US and NATO were slow to respond and provide Ukraine what they needed at the outset of this phase of the ten-year war with Russia. If Ukraine can execute their strategy adroitly, they can create the conditions for a cease-fire, withdrawal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian occupied territory, and a return to the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine and the Russian Federation. It is certain China, North Korea, and Iran are taking note. What is happening to Czar Putin and the Russian Federation could be their fate should they continue their deepening entanglements of support to Russia.
The cost of the Russian Federation's occupation of Ukraine has to be greater than Russia is willing to pay. So far, clearly, that threshold has yet to be reached.