Racing Preview @ Scone, 11th May 2019
We have plenty of good racing to look forward to this weekend with the running of the G1 Australian Derby at Morphettville and the G1 Doomben 10,000 at Doomben. We could be looking at a wet track in Adelaide so that throws a spanner into the works in the Derby. Looking at the race not one horse has won on a heavy track and only three have won on slow (Mangione, Resurge, Manzala) so that doesn’t help much. I can only go on what I have seen and that is, Mr Quickie is the class runner! He had a soft win to prepare for this in a slowly run race and previous to that, gave 6kg to Star Missile who has since been competitive with the second favourite Declarationofheart at set weights. I have no real concern about the distance for him, but the wet track is a complete gamble. That being said, something makes me want to back him, he’s just so consistent!
The Doomben 10,000 looks a race in two and that’s how the bookmakers see it. Nature Strip can easily cross from barrier 11 but JMac won’t want to rev him up too much at the start because he might end up on the steel (pulling) which will rule him out in the last 100m of the race. He’s got the ear muffs on to help him to settle but he tackles WFA at 1200m now. I think he’s very skinny odds! Osborne Bulls is the value for me at the top of the market. The blinkers on indicate intent and suggest that McEvoy will settle closer to the speed. I really think this is his chance to win a G1!
I love this meeting at Scone. It always throws up some promising horses and we usually get some value. Let’s get stuck in!
Race 1; Interesting race in which Military Zone has been really well backed which gives us some extra value with Wild Planet. I think he’s the best gamble in the race considering his consistency and he gets a very favourable draw. He will race on the speed and prove hard to beat. Military Zone will get back from his draw and needs more luck than our top pick. He will be charging home and is a clear second pick. Signore Fox was a mile too good at Hawkesbury and was only beaten 1.1 lengths by Wild Planet in the LR South Pacific. Total Power gets the blinkers on for the first time and will be at his peak now.
Suggested bet; Win Wild Planet
Race 2; This is a tough race with $6.50 the field on offer. I want to have something on King Viv who looks over the odds. He gets a 6kg weight swing (4 lengths) on Free Fly Too ($6.50) for a beaten margin of 1.8 lengths. Can win. Plenty of chances outside of him, High Opinion comes through the right form race and was competitive with Abdon there. Lord Gododdin is lightly raced and can be forgiven for his last start effort. He can be competitive going on his first start at Flemington in Australia. The Bandit looks over the odds to me and is a blowout chance.
Suggested bet; Small win bet King Viv
Race 3; Libertini was super impressive winning at Randwick when not everything went her way. She could be a very good filly! I am never keen on taking the short odds but she will prove hard to beat. Akari looks over the odds and I have had something on her. She gets a 3.5kg swing on the race favourite for a beaten margin of 3.3 lengths. She also gets the blinkers on for the first time, a favourable draw, and race experience to help her bridge that margin. Egyptian Missile is very well bred and looked talented in her trials. Flotus was brilliant when winning at Kembla and will run well.
Suggested bet; Back Libertini if you have the stomach for odds on (I have not), and have something small on Akari
Race 4; Keen on Akasaki here at each way odds. He’s been well found in the market now (into $9.50) but that still looks fair enough! He won this race last year with 59.5kg and comes in this year with 58.5kg with the claim for Chris Williams. Same two lead in runs as last year and could have won?! (not sure) a LR at Hawkesbury last start when he was badly held up. Jack’s Bar can run well and has form around Americana Magic ($6). His trials have been really good! Star of Monsoon can also turn the tables on Americana Magic with a weight swing. He should improve second up. Wagner had his chance last start but looks equally well suited here.
Suggested bet; Win on Akasaki and something on Jack’s Bar
Race 5; Want to have something on Invictus Salute here at nice odds. She was competitive with Pretty In Pink at this meeting last year and gets a 5kg swing on her for a beaten margin of 2.1 lengths. She also has race fitness on her side. Prophet’s Thumb got the better of Trope three starts ago and she has trialled really well. Classique Legend form for this has to be good! Loved both the trials of Pretty in Pink and if she has luck will be right in the finish. Let Me Sleep On It gets a weight swing on Invictus Salute for her last start defeat. She’s trialled since and had the blinkers applied again. She’s drawn awkward so will need a good ride.
Suggested bet; Backing both Prophet’s Thumb & Invictus Salute
Quaddie; 1,2,3,8,9,11
Race 6; I think Camdus can run well here at huge odds! He was held up last start upon entering the straight and seemed to get left behind when horses outside him had momentum. He gets a 5kg weight swing on Trekking for a beaten margin of 4.3 lengths and can strip fitter. Just looks huge odds to me and happy to play the bookies! Market will determine if I have another bet in the race. Probably have Redouble next pick from Brave Song but there isn’t much between them. Trekking creeps up in the weights and tackles 1300m now.
Suggested bet; Small win bet Camdus and something on Redouble at this stage
Quaddie; 2,3,6,9
Race 7; I think Moss Trip could be one of the better bets of the day! Loved both her trials and she does come in best at the weights around White Moss (Savatiano, Siren’s Fury, Zumbelina). Started $11 in a G1 last start (heavy so forgive) and did win the Guineas on this day last year! Asharani is the one that I want to save on, she didn’t have the best of luck in the James Carr when 1100m – 1400m. She can strip fitter and looks hard to beat on the limit weight. Into The Abyss had no luck in the same race. She comes up a little shorter in the market and the draw can be awkward for her once again. Savatiano finds her right race and will be right in the finish.
Suggested bet; Win Moss Trip & Asharani
Quaddie; 1,3,6,11, 14
Race 8; The last of the day and I think Dothraki is a good gamble! He had absolutely no luck last start when held up badly and looked to have something to give! The rest of his form is first class. Viridine comes through the same race and didn’t get much room in the straight. He can win for sure! After All That is a first up performer and has run well in the G2 Shorts on two separate occasions behind Redzel & Ball of Muscle. Victorem is a quality galloper who can get over the top of them late.
Suggested bet; Win Dothraki
Quaddie; 1,2,3,12
Happy hunting!
BJ