Will racial inequality be the prelude to the city’s 2020 mayoral race?

By: Hassan Giordano

As Baltimore City Mayor Catherine Pugh contemplates signing a racial inequity charter amendment bill, recently passed by the fifteen members of the Baltimore City Council (which includes Council President Bernard ‘Jack’ Young), she also needs to consider the racial aspect that will dominate the mayoral race in 2020.

There’s no secret behind the motives of why this bill was introduced in the first place, given that the bill’s author has clearly been using his platform as the chairman of the council’s public safety committee to lay the foundation for a citywide run in 2020. Councilman Brandon Scott, the second term councilman that represents the city’s 2nd district in East Baltimore, made his desire to run for Mayor in 2020 crystal clear in an article written by this author back in 2015.

And the 34-year old Scott has stuck to that plan. From his introduction of bills that would garner media attention and public goodwill, to his decision to run for Lieutenant Governor with one of Baltimore’s premiere attorneys, Jim Shea – in a long shot bid that Scott knew was unlikely to see him get past June’s Democratic Primary; Scott’s aim has been zeroed in on taking over the 2nd floor of City Hall.

However, it seems as if Scott won’t be the only candidate looking to take aim at Mayor Pugh in her quest to get re-elected two years from now. It’s rumored that a handful of council members are looking to upgrade their annual salary by seeking higher office, along with a few non-elected individuals who may look to take advantage of a Pugh administration that has made a number of missteps over her first two years in office. And while Scott’s position on the council, coupled his strategic decision to run statewide with Shea in order to garner increased name recognition and an inside track to the moneymakers tied to his former running mate, may put him in the best position to take on Pugh; there are other names likely to enter the race that may kick Scott to the back of the mayoral bus.

The most obvious two people are the second and third place finishers in the 2016 mayoral contest, former Mayor Sheila Dixon and another unsuccessful 2018 Lt. Governor candidate, Elizabeth Embry. Dixon, the city’s first female mayor (and its first female African American mayor), still has more name recognition and love within the black community that can dwarf Scott or any other black who may decide to jump into the mayoral race. Embry on the other hand, has built a political network stacked with non-profit leaders, multi-racial local community leaders, along with a vast array of state Democratic Party activists she amassed during her gubernatorial bid earlier this year with former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker.

Add to that list the possibility of freshman Councilman Zeke Cohen throwing his name into the race for mayor, along with the likelihood of businessman Kahan Dhillon – who has slowly built a large citywide network of supporters under the umbrella of his TBR (The Baltimore Renaissance) project – also entering the contest; and there you have a recipe for racial inequality for the city’s top spot.

Now, while it’s doubtful that 1st district council Cohen will get into the race for Mayor if Scott is also in it, it doesn’t prevent the two from teaming up together as Scott runs for Mayor and Cohen for City Council President – essentially becoming the city’s newest Batman and Robin. (For those who don’t remember the original Batman and Robin, it was Council President Lawrence Bell and Councilman Martin O’Malley, before the latter decided to stab the former in the back and run for the same mayoral seat Bell saw seeking - along with a dozen more blacks – which led to the perfect racial storm for O’Malley to succeed.)

However, while both Scott and Cohen have constituent bases in their districts, both being the East and Southeast parts of Baltimore, neither have the citywide “street cred” in running for a position that covers all portions of this city. Dixon and Embry on the other hand have exactly that! In fact, while everyone knows how popular the Dixon name is amongst the African American electorate, what they would be shocked to see if just how popular the Embry name has gotten over the past two years.

Having finished a strong third place in the 2016 race, which shocked many people who didn’t bank on the first-time candidate getting more votes than citywide names such as Councilmen Nick Mosby and Carl Stokes, or even more than David Warnock – who dumped a ton of money into advertising; Embry seemed to have increased her name notoriety with her recent run for Lt. Governor and her various charitable causes.

She now stands as a serious contender for almost any citywide seat she feels is best suited for her. And while many expected her to run for State’s Attorney earlier this year, her decision to instead run for Lt. Governor only seemed to further strengthen the possibility that she will once again seek to become Baltimore’s first white female mayor.

And with the possibility of several candidates of color running, including Pugh, Dixon, Scott, Kahan and God knows who else may jump in; the likelihood that Baltimore will once again elect a white mayor to run a majority-black city, is greater than not. However, while many political insiders believe that regardless of whom it is, that a new Mayor will be crowned in 2020; others, such as Mark McLaurin say, “don’t believe the hype”.

“I think the Pugh administration has had its share of stumbles over the past year and a half, but my observation is that contrary to the fevered imaginings of the ‘Dixonites’ and the ‘Bike Lane Bullies’, there remains a reservoir of goodwill for this Mayor, people who genuinely want her to succeed,” says McLaurin, the political director for SEIU500 and a longtime Pugh supporter.

And while I believe it’s less likely that Scott runs for Mayor if both Dixon and Embry enter the race, which blocks his pathway to victory on both the black and white side of things; Mark seems more perplexed by the addition of Kahan in the race for Mayor. “Kahan Dhillon has to be one of the odder newest additions to the race for mayor, as he seems to have a baker’s dozen of ride or die Facebook supporters, but it’s hard to see how he makes a dent in the race? He’s the 2020 version of David Warnock, only with less money, little to no ties to Baltimore and even less charisma; and from what I can tell, he doesn’t even have a beat up pickup truck!”

However, McLaurin admits that it will be an interesting year between now and this time next year, as people try to anticipate who’s getting in the race for Mayor, who may run for Council President and who is supporting who.

“Whoever decides to get in the race, I anticipate a spirited re-election campaign on Catherine’s part, as she starts off with having almost 600K in the bank, which is 50-times more than what Sheila has and 4-times as much as Sheila, Zeke and Brandon combined. So if I’m Mayor Pugh at this point, in the immortal words of the great philosophical king, French Montana – ‘I ain’t worried about nothin’!”

Yet, even with a sizeable war chest, whether or not Mayor Pugh can overcome her series of gaffes, many of which led to public outcry throughout the black community - from trying to cancel the Martin Luther Day Parade to downsizing and moving the staple African American Heritage Festival (AFRAM) – will be something she will have to contend with. One thing has become crystal clear over the past year, and that is while the black community may not be dead-set on choosing her replacement just yet; the white community is already plotting and planning to put up one of their own to take back the 2nd floor of City Hall. The question is: who will be their chosen candidate?