The Race for the White House: Biden's Uphill Battle in 2024

The 2024 presidential election represents a critical juncture in American politics, characterized by an intensely polarized electorate and the potential for significant shifts in political power. President Joe Biden's re-election campaign faces significant challenges, including low approval ratings, fragmented voter support, and formidable competition from former President Donald Trump. This paper delves into the intricacies of Biden's re-election efforts, exploring the obstacles he faces and the strategies his team is employing to secure a second term. Through an analysis of various political dynamics, including voter sentiment, campaign organization, and key demographic shifts, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current political landscape. The insights presented here are based on a synthesis of recent reports, polling data, and expert opinions, offering a detailed overview of the factors that could influence the outcome of the 2024 election.

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, President Joe Biden faces an uphill battle in his bid for re-election. Despite his administration's policy achievements and economic improvements, Biden's campaign struggles with low approval ratings, fragmented voter support, and formidable competition from former President Donald Trump. This paper examines the multifaceted challenges and strategic responses shaping Biden's re-election efforts, drawing on insights from political analysts, campaign veterans, and recent polling data.

Challenges Facing Biden's Campaign

Voter sentiment and approval ratings

President Biden's approval ratings, hovering in the high 30s, are historically low for an incumbent seeking re-election. This unfavorable rating poses a significant obstacle, as it reflects widespread voter dissatisfaction with Biden's performance on various fronts. According to recent polling data, Biden trails or is tied with Trump in most head-to-head matchups, indicating a highly competitive race.

Concerns about Biden's policies, leadership, age, and competence are prevalent among voters, complicating efforts to consolidate support. The coalition that propelled Biden to victory in 2020 has weakened, with notable declines in support among key demographic groups, including Black, Latino, and Asian American voters. This fragmentation of the Democratic coalition poses a significant challenge to Biden's re-election campaign.

Internal Campaign Dynamics

Former President Barack Obama's private warnings highlight internal issues within Biden's campaign. During a private White House lunch, Obama cautioned that defeating Donald Trump would be difficult, as the nation's mood had soured, and convincing disgruntled voters would be challenging. He advised Biden to frame the race more aggressively as a referendum on Trump.

Initially, Obama believed Biden understood the message, but over the next six months, he saw slight improvement. By December, Obama's message grew more urgent during another White House meeting: Biden's re-election effort lagged in field operations and was hindered by his reliance on an insular West Wing group. Unless Biden improved, Trump could potentially win the seven key battleground states Biden had won in 2020, Obama warned.

Three months into the 2024 general election, Biden does indeed face difficulties. His approval ratings in the high 30s are lower than any recent president seeking re-election. He trails or is tied with Trump in most head-to-head polls. Voters express concerns about his policies, leadership, age, and competence. The coalition that helped him win in 2020 has fragmented, as Democrats' longtime edge among Black, Latino, and Asian American voters has declined to lows not seen since the civil rights era. Despite the January 6th insurrection attempt, criminal charges, and concerns raised by former aides, Trump is well-positioned to reclaim the presidency across his three campaigns. Over 30 pollsters, strategists, and campaign veterans from both parties reportedly believe Biden would likely lose if the election were held currently.

However, Biden's inner circle remains optimistic. They see a candidate with a strong economy, substantial campaign funds, and policy accomplishments on infrastructure, climate change, industrial policy, and consumer protections that may resonate more as the campaign intensifies. They perceive Democrats overperforming in recent polls, from the 2022 midterms to special elections and abortion referendums. Most importantly, they view Trump as a historically unpopular opponent. Ultimately, they believe dissatisfied voters will consider issues like reproductive rights, the prospect of immigration crackdowns, and the future of U.S. democracy when supporting Biden again. Biden's deputy campaign manager notes his biggest asset is the 80 million people who previously voted for him, while the challenge is re-winning those same voters.

Yet, persuading previous Biden voters may be difficult in a contest over which candidate America dislikes less. After a slow start, Biden's campaign is pushing forward by opening field offices, hiring staff, and launching ads portraying Trump as a dangerous autocrat. But even if Biden's struggling campaign gains momentum, allies warn that the nation is so divided that his impact may be limited. Both sides are entrenched in a gloomy election marked by low turnout expectations and apocalyptic warnings about the other side winning. Publicly, Biden's team is confident in their turnaround plan, but privately, some White House insiders admit apprehension.

Young voters and the Democratic Coalition

While Aidan Kohn-Murphy's life has changed in four years, at 20, his appearance of a round, smiling face with dark hair remains. Though too young to vote in 2020, Kohn-Murphy organized the large and influential #TikTokforBiden Gen Z social media campaign supporting Biden. Now #TikTokforBiden has become the Gen Z for Change activist group. However, Kohn-Murphy has cooled on the president he worked hard to elect.

Contrary to assumptions, Kohn-Murphy's disillusionment goes beyond Biden's age. With visible frustration, Kohn-Murphy lists perceived policy “betrayals” as if “tattooed on the back of my hand.” He criticizes Biden's failure to stop Trump's border wall construction, the Willow oil drilling project in Alaska despite a vow to ban new federal land drilling, and Biden's stance supporting Israel during its Gaza military campaign, angering many young progressives. In 2020, Biden dominated Trump by 24 points among under-30 voters. Yet a December New York Times/Siena poll showed him trailing Trump by 6 points with the youngest voters, though other polls showed a smaller deficit. “Gen Z voters don't understand why they should vote for a candidate whose actions conflict with their values,” Kohn-Murphy says. While he plans to reluctantly back Biden, he worries the threat of another Trump term will not sway his peers.

Young voters are not the only waning part of the Democratic coalition. Biden claims just 63% of Black voters, a sharp drop from the 87% he won in 2020, according to Cornell University polling. After winning Hispanic voters 2-to-1 four years ago, he now trails Trump with that group. Biden's position on Israel amid the Gaza war has damaged his standing among Muslim and Arab voters, particularly in the must-win state of Michigan. Overall, Biden's advantage over Trump among non-white voters has shrunk from nearly 50 points in 2020 to 12 points, the latest Times/Siena poll showed. One former Biden official granted anonymity to candidly assess the campaign said, “It boils down to voters of color being pissed. I think it's very likely he'll lose.”

Biden's Strategic Responses

Policy Achievements and Economic Messaging

Incumbent presidents overseeing solid economies are typically favored for re-election, which applies to Biden. Beyond the bipartisan infrastructure bill and climate change investment, Biden touts’ accomplishments like billions in student debt forgiveness, lower drug costs, and bipartisan gun safety legislation. To some allies, the disconnect between Biden's performance and political standing stems from the White House and campaign team struggling to promote his successes.

In the battleground state of Arizona, for example, at least two major semiconductor plants are opening thanks to Biden's CHIPS Act, which invests over $52 billion in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. Intel and Taiwan's TSMC announced plans for thousands of local tech and construction jobs that the Greater Phoenix Economic Council estimates will boost regional economic output by billions. Yet only 25% of Arizona voters credited Biden for the new plants in one poll for TIME; 29% credited the companies, while 34% were “not sure” who was responsible.

Biden is not getting full credit because his message has been too “academic,” argues Representative Bennie Thompson, the Democrat who chaired the House January 6th investigation committee. “So much has gone over the average American citizen's head. It need not be a dissertation—just a clear message. He'll have to work on that.”

Mobilizing Key Demographics

Efforts to mobilize key demographics, particularly young and non-white voters, are central to Biden's strategy. The campaign is working to rebuild support among these groups through targeted outreach and engagement. High-profile surrogates and strategic alliances with organizations like the United Auto Workers and various political action committees aim to bolster turnout and enthusiasm.

Biden's team devised strategies to engage key voting blocs differently. To reach Black voters in Georgia, they plan surrogates like Senator Raphael Warnock to boost turnout. Despite critics, operatives predict pragmatic Black voters will stick with Biden based on their options. Biden's position on Israel amid the Gaza war has damaged his standing among Muslim and Arab voters, particularly in the must-win state of Michigan. Overall, Biden's advantage over Trump among non-white voters has shrunk from nearly 50 points in 2020 to 12 points, the latest Times/Siena poll showed. One former Biden official granted anonymity to candidly assess the campaign said, “It boils down to voters of color being pissed. I think it's very likely he'll lose.”

Campaign Organization and Field Operations

Nearly two dozen senior Democratic sources tell TIME that Biden's campaign mechanics, structure, and staffing over the past year share responsibility as well. While Obama had around 900 staffers for his 2012 re-election campaign's summer, Biden's campaign is still hiring roughly half that number now. In-person organizing infrastructure and training lacks coordination compared to the 2020 operation, which is critical in early-voting battlegrounds. Until the past few months, Biden's re-election campaign relied heavily on state Democratic parties, many of which were struggling to rebound from COVID.

Obama warned that unless Biden improved, Trump could potentially win the seven key battleground states Biden had won in 2020. Three months into the 2024 general election, Biden does indeed face difficulties. His approval ratings in the high 30s are lower than any recent president seeking re-election. He trails or is tied with Trump in most head-to-head polls. Voters express concerns about his policies, leadership, age, and competence. The coalition that helped him win in 2020 has fragmented, as Democrats' longtime edge among Black, Latino, and Asian American voters has declined to lows not seen since the civil rights era.

To some allies, the disconnect between Biden's performance and political standing stems from the White House and campaign team struggling to promote his successes. In the battleground state of Arizona, for example, at least two major semiconductor plants are opening thanks to Biden's CHIPS Act, which invests over $52 billion in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing. Intel and Taiwan's TSMC announced plans for thousands of local tech and construction jobs that the Greater Phoenix Economic Council estimates will boost regional economic output by billions.

Biden's deputy campaign manager notes his biggest asset is the 80 million people who previously voted for him, while the challenge is re-winning those same voters. Yet, persuading previous Biden voters may be difficult in a contest over which candidate America dislikes less. After a slow start, Biden's campaign is pushing forward by opening field offices, hiring staff, and launching ads portraying Trump as a dangerous autocrat. But even if Biden's struggling campaign gains momentum, allies warn that the nation is so divided that his impact may be limited.

Concluding Remarks

President Joe Biden's re-election campaign faces a complex and challenging landscape. Despite significant policy achievements and a strong economic record, the campaign must overcome low approval ratings, fragmented voter support, and internal organizational hurdles. The strategic responses, including targeted demographic outreach, enhanced field operations, and a focused messaging campaign, aim to address these challenges and secure a second term for Biden. As the election approaches, the effectiveness of these efforts will be crucial in determining the outcome in a deeply polarized nation. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the factors at play, offering insights into the dynamics shaping the 2024 presidential race.

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