The Race Between Western Sanctions and Wagner in Africa

Convening on?Thursday, the Russia-Africa summit in Saint Petersburg has given a boost of morale to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Indeed, he is unable to attend other important summits, like the BRICS meeting in South Africa, due to the International Criminal Court arrest warrant against him over alleged war crimes in Ukraine. The Kremlin managed to gather heads of state and officials from 49 ‘allied’ African countries in the second edition of this gathering focused on Russia’s bilateral relations with the African continent. However, the summit's impact on the strategic balance of power will not be drastic, considering the global turmoil caused by the Russian war in Ukraine that has left the international order lost without direction.?

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One of the main concerns for the African leaders is Moscow's bid to bypass Western sanctions and Western presence in Africa, given the US and European determination to crack down on any circumvention of their measures.?

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During the Saint Petersburg summit, President Putin promised to provide free grain shipments in the coming months to six African nations: Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, the Central African Republic, and Eritrea. This move comes amid African concerns over Russia’s exit from the grain deal, which Putin attributed to Western policies, accusing the West of hindering the grain initiative despite Russia's full commitment to it, as he claimed. However, it was Russia that refused to extend the grain agreement with Ukraine, which was sponsored by Turkey, triggering concerns of a global food crisis that would primarily affect the African continent following the cessation of grain exports from Ukraine.?

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President Putin’s pitch at the Russia-Africa summit did not include measures to protect African countries from direct sanctions imposed on Russia. Indeed, he is unable to provide such guarantees, given that the West would pursue and punish anyone who deals with Russia. Putin's language may have been effective once, under the old world order perhaps, but today it is just theoretical flourish devoid of any practical significance.?

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President Putin pointed out that "Russia was one of the first countries to respond positively to the initiative to grant the African Union full membership in the G20,” adding: “We expect this decision to be taken as early as September during the G20 summit in New Delhi”. However, the reality is that President Putin will most likely not be able to attend that summit, and that Russia will no longer play the role it used to before the Ukrainian war. The reality is that the African Union's membership in the G20 no longer holds the same significance following the Western alliance’s rise to global leadership.?

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In fact, Russia's tools to exert significant and deep influence in the African continent are limited to the activities of the mercenary group PMC Wagner. The Wagner Group's mutinous advance towards Moscow has weakened confidence and instilled fear among African leaders who have come to rely on Wagner to maintain their power. Moreover, Wagner, lethal as they are, are being challenged by the lethal weapon of sanctions imposed on countries that dare to maintain links with the Wagner Group and with Russia. This presents these players with a dilemma.?

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The leader of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, surprised the Russian-African Summit, attending meetings with African leaders and officials, notably from the Central African Republic. Prigozhin has an extensive, complex, and intricate military, security, and financial network in the CAR, offering it as a launching point for implementing Russian policies in African countries. His presence delivered a clear message meant to say that his rebellion was a fleeting event, that Russia remained committed to Africa, and that Wagner's primary mission was to support pro-Russian regimes in power and to bring about alternative regimes if they are hostile to Russia.?

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Russia is likely involved in the coup in Niger last week, which aligns with its policies towards Europe, especially against France. Niger, rich in uranium, is important for French nuclear industries and Russia is furious with France and is seeking to create problems for Paris and the Europeans for their ‘betrayal’ of Moscow. For this reason, this coup will likely not be the last move to consolidate Russian influence in Africa.?

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According to intelligence sources, Libya is set to see some "interesting developments” soon. The intelligence sources set a timeline around September or October, highlighting Libya's specific importance to Russia. Libya is different from others in Africa, where Russia deems it necessary not to “bet on a single horse”. The Wagner Group remains fundamental to these missions and objectives.?

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In Syria, the Wagner Group remains active despite Moscow's relative reassurance regarding the stability of the Bashar al-Assad regime, which was vital to Russian and Iranian policies in Syria. However, it appears that the overt roles of Russia and Iran have receded in the Syrian arena for various reasons. One of these is undoubtedly Russia's involvement in the Ukrainian war. As for Iran, it has decided to test its "soft" diplomacy following the Saudi-Iranian agreement, brokered by China. Iran is eyeing a reconstruction windfall in Syria as it implements its recently adopted "Spider Strategy."?

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The United States' military buildup in Syria concerns and worries Russia, as well as other players. The risk of an aerial clash between American and Russian aircraft and drones is present but not imminent, as both parties are determined to avoid direct confrontation. However, they are also determined to assert their presence in Syrian airspace and on its territory. The current situation is that the decision to shore up American military presence in Syria has led Russia to consider the drawbacks of reducing its military and economic footprints there.?

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Russia wants to appear as if its Special Military Operation in Ukraine - as it calls its war - has not diminished its global standing. However, the reality of the Russian war in Ukraine has led to its isolation and forced it to reduce its global military and economic presence. Russian diplomacy is now trying to assert itself and is in need of rallying sympathetic voices in forums like the United Nations. That is why the Russian-African summit was important for President Putin, not only because it was held on Russian soil but also because it sets the stage for the upcoming United Nations General Assembly in September.?

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Russia's promises to its "allies" in African and other countries are sincere, but they could collide with a bitter reality. Russia is today unable to shower its friends and allies with aid, weapons, and money as it used to, due to the financial constraints resulting from the Western sanctions and the Ukrainian war. While free grain shipments may provide temporary relief if delivered within the coming months, the repercussions of exiting the Ukraine grain export deal and the consequences of the Ukrainian war are far more significant than any short-term remedies.?