R-E-S-P-E-C-T, and the skinny on obesity

Boeing Boeing

Job actions by unions and their members, especially those involving big unions and big companies, pretty much always go according to script. Oh, they are unpredictable in duration and outcome, of course, but the sturm und drang, subtle and sometimes not so attempts to divide workers from their union, news-cycle-timed expressions of outrage, camera-ready picket line energy — all textbook.

But Boeing's flight path (sorry) from a 33,000-strong machinists strike that has shut down production has been anything but dull — and we're only two weeks in. And there's … history.?

So it's not too early to think about the movie version. A dramatic, 90-minute action + pathos with some comedy and heartbreak from Puget Sound to the Halls of Congress. Maybe there's even an Erin Brockovich character to tie it all together. Anyway — Elevator pitch: Norma Rae meets Dumb Money .?

Boeing has been a supporting player in plenty of movies — from Airport to Apollo 13 — but this time it could be above the title. It is considered part of an airliner manufacturing duopoly , along with Airbus, and an American manufacturing icon. It's not a particularly large employer — Ford and Disney are bigger, along with dozens of companies you've never heard of. That almost makes it … scrappy!

But where to begin?! At the beginning, sure. But great storytellers decide where the beginning is. Let's tick off some plot points to see what the best entry point might be:

• A door plug blows off a Boeing airliner a few days after New Year's. Nobody is hurt but there is passenger video and the incident becomes maybe only second to the Miracle on the Hudson in the Zeitgeist of air disasters in which somehow nobody died.
• But it does become part of the Zeitgeist, and when that happens every little thing becomes part of an ever-widening narrative. Like when it turns out maybe someone didn't quite turn the screws right on that door plug, and maybe didn't put enough of them in it .
• And that ties to an even BIGGER narrative about quality assurance and the 2005 decision to sell off the division that makes Boeing fuselages — Spirit Aerosystems , now a third party with original responsibility for preventing things like door plugs coming off mid-air.

Oh yes, Boeing is buying back Spirit Aerosystems — but I digress. Also not a bad cinematic technique. Now, back to our story:

• On a parallel timeline, CEO Dave Calhoun is slowly but relentlessly badgered out of the corner office , 11 weeks after the Alaska Airlines accident.
• Calhoun decides to leave (checks notes) by the end of the year? — remaining a constant reminder of whatever is going on at Boeing.
• Four months after Alaska Air, Boeing replaces Calhoun with industry veteran Kelly Ortberg.
• NOTE THE TIME: The machinists' contract will expire in five weeks. (Every action movie needs a countdown clock — think Unstoppable meets Gravity .)

And this is where our tale takes another turn:

• Machinist union leadership, apparently knowing better, negotiates and recommends a deal that includes a raise of 25%. Their members want 40 — won't listen to anything less than 35. Not exactly a secret, according to reporters who were close to all of this .
• Rank-and-file are riled up about a lot of things, especially that they think they're way behind in proper comp and that their defined-benefit pension was yanked years ago. They reject the deal in a formal vote, and to strike. 95% of them.
• Company starts furloughs to turn the screws (no pun intended) a week into the strike.
• Boeing delivers its "best and final" offer 11 days into the strike — one might argue a little early into our story, though tempo matters. They say it will expire Friday this week (yesterday).
• But Boeing doesn't go through union leadership, with whom they met exactly once post strike. Union leadership, having been rebuffed by members, is now marginalized by Boeing.
• Union leadership is not pleased. Scheduling a vote in so little time is impossible, they say. But that's besides the point. It was about RESPECT. As posted on X by IAM Union District 751 :

This tactic is a blatant show of disrespect to you - our members - and the bargaining process. Boeing does not get to decide when or if you vote. Boeing has misled the media by wrongfully stating the Union membership is required to vote on their latest offer.

BUT WAIT: PLOT TWIST

• After the union lashes out, Boeing blinks. The offer stands, but the deadline doesn't, the company says, still hoping the union would sanction a vote. So this clock is gone, but per analysts via Reuters , the strike could be costing Boeing more than $100 million — a day.

Now, about casting…

Forks and knives — out!

Obesity is a touchy topic. But GLP-1s, which burst onto the scene only in the past year or so, are a game changer. They offer the promise of weight control with maintenance meds instead of maintenance eating, increasing the prospects for compliance versus staying on track with diet and exercise.

So, just as speaking openly about mental health has become less taboo, the revolution in weight-control drugs is making this once-taboo subject less so.

But as with any paradigm shift, there are winners and losers. This could have big public policy implications — Medicare, for one — and the private sector — insurance and health-care companies and yes, even (maybe especially) the food and beverage industries. And lest we forget, GLP-1s were developed for and are primarily prescribed to diabetes patients.

With that in mind, we had some sobering news this week on obesity : It has declined among Americans — slightly — in the past two years, compared to the previous three. But it remains higher than 10 years ago; more than 100 million American adults have obesity, and more than 20 million have severe obesity.

Note: These stats probably do not reflect much of the impact of GLP-1s, whose popularity purely for their weight-loss properties has caused worldwide shortages . So the next report will be even more significant.

Which gives us time to think.

Tease this out: If all anyone needed to stay in a healthy weight range was a pill, and could get it cheaply or free, would that be a good outcome? Should we socially engineer this? It would mean that companies in the empty-calorie business would suffer, and people might be thrown out of work. Social Security might be under even greater strain as life expectancies lengthen.

But we'd be a healthier nation. Is that overreach, or sound public policy?

I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today

Last week we reported that holiday shopping was "already in full swing " — IT'S SEPTEMBER, PEOPLE. This week we learned that holiday shoppers are forecast to spend a record $18.5 billion using buy now, pay later services, according to projections by Adobe Analytics. That's 11.4% more than last year.

More insights from Adobe:

• U.S. online sales are projected to hit $240.8 billion this holiday shopping season (Nov. 1 to Dec. 31), representing 8.4% growth year-over-year. This does not include the Amazon Prime and Walmart holiday kickoff events, Oct. 8.
• This holiday season is expected to be the most mobile of all time, with a record $128.1 billion spent through mobile devices at 53.2% share over desktop.
• Influencers will drive people to shop 10 times more compared to social media overall, and generative AI-powered chatbots will power a 100% increase in traffic to retail sites.

And, as Axios reports , spend on the most expensive items is expected to grow by 19%:

Trading up — or opting to buy a more expensive option of a product — is a reversal from the act of trading down, which is what many consumers have been choosing to do in light of high inflation.

Shopping earlier, spending more — even accounting for inflation. Is this your profile for the holiday season?