Quote of the day: Confirmation bias and Popper

There's a myth out there that that scientists love proving themselves wrong - that the first thing they do after constructing a hypothesis is to try to falsify it. Professors tell students that this is the essence of science. Yet most scientists behave very differently in practice. They not only become strongly attached to their own theories; they perpetually look for evidence that supports rather than challenges their theories. 

This is only human nature, known as the confirmation bias. In all walks of life, from investment decisions and product development to strategy and innovation processes, we look for evidence to support our beliefs, rather than to counter them. Or as Nasim Taleb describes, "you take past instances that corroborate your theories and you treat them as evidence, [even though] a series of corroborative facts is not necessarily evidence. Seeing white swans does not confirm the nonexistence of black swans."

The alarming thing about confirmation bias is that it seems to get worse with greater expertise. Lawyers, CEOs, strategy consultants and doctors (but not weather forecasters who get regularly mugged by reality) become more confident in their judgment as they become more senior, requiring less positive evidence to support their views than they need negative evidence to drop them.

Confirmation bias is hurting your business

The challenge with the confirmation bias is that we can get far closer and much faster to the truth by negative instances, not by verification. And the only way leading out of the confirming darkness is for you to formulate a (bold) conjecture, then start looking for the observation that would prove you wrong. 

Warren Buffet insists that one of the way he make sure to resist the appealing lure of the confirmation bias is to give way for opinions different from his own. For instance in 2013 he invited his most devoted critic, the investor Doug Kass, to the annual Berkshire Hathaway meeting in Omaha, only because Doug is fiercely criticising Buffet's investment style and regularly shortsells Berkshire Hathaway stocks.

As Buffet argues, it is our natural resistance to logically evaluate the opposite side of an argument that strengthens the confirmation bias and leads the way to poor investment decisions. 

Start now!

Avoiding the confirmation bias doesn't come naturally and you need to practice - and way not start right away with the puzzle below: 

 When ready, write the correct answer below. Not as easy as you thought? 

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Wishing you a powerful day!