A quick view of post-Covid-19

As I post a copy of a recent Facebook post I shared, I do so reminding the reader that this article probably conjures up more questions than answers. I hope, therefore, that in time I will be able to follow up this article with practical solutions.

Our post-covid-19 world

I wrote this by starting off with a few phrases to help my kids understand how they should prepare for the post-COVID-19 world we will create.

The phrases turned into an essay that I bounced of a few of the people I trust the most and they all said: “post it”. So here goes…..

As roughly 25% of the world’s population is under some form of lockdown, and more is sure to come, we inadvertently ponder what our post-Covid-19 lives are going to look like. I write this as I wonder about how I, and especially my kids will experience the post-COVID-19 world and how best to prepare all of us for it.

Kids will surely go back to school. We will all return to work. Things will become “normal”. However, in the long run, we will surely start seeing a “new normal” as things start settling. Remember, there will still be testing and positive results after lockdown. As such, the management and the reality of new infections will remain.  The first thing we have to prepare for might be an extended lock-down. Now, this lockdown might be as stringent as the one we are currently under, or even slightly more relaxed. One thing is for sure, and that is that there will be restricted movement for a long, long time. South Africa (being three months behind the covid-19 curve) will probably only experience its peak around May-June. This “new normal” has been coming for a while, even pre-COVID-19. I contend that it will be hastened quite significantly by the fallout of COVID-19 and the world’s response thereto.

Already we are experiencing a massive increase in the “work from home”  and “learn at home” phenomena. Now, these things are not new, but the increased rate at which COVID-19 is forcing us to partake in them is going to remain and even accelerate. Managers, bosses, and overseers everywhere will realize that productivity does not mean “time at office” but rather “task successfully delivered from anywhere.” This reality will stick. Add to this contactless delivery – even at your supermarket, and especially at your favorite fast-food outlet. Not in years to come, but in months to come. Don’t feel “weirded out” if people don’t accept your handshake, or a hug, for a long-long-time post lockdown.

The question remains then, how do we prepare for the Post-COVID-19 world? Firstly, with great circumspection. I say this based on historical context. The world our parents and grandparents inherited post-WWII was one designed to curb nationalism – for obvious reasons. This world saw the establishment of institutions like the UN, IMF, WHO and World Bank, to name just a few.   Over the last few years, we have seen a huge resurgence in nationalism and authoritarianism espoused as identity politics in many circles. We see this all the way from China, via Brazil to the US and everywhere in-between. This very resurgence is eroding the aforementioned institutions before our very eyes, even pre-COVID-19. I contend that COVID-19 will illustrate more-and-more the diminishing ability of the world “institutions” to cope with the COVID-19 fallout. Individual governments will have to step up. Herein lies the problem. The nationalistic, authoritarianism coupled with the new power that governments exert currently with their various lockdown measures could make for a lethal cocktail. It is the first time in history that governments have told businesses to close down at this scale. This power could become addictive to some leaders and it is up to the populace (me, you -wherever you are in the world) to guard against these powers being implemented permanently and leaders falling into its addictive lure. Given the reality of the interconnected world we live in, the chances of this happening are relatively slim.

When our parents and grandparents inherited their post-WWII world, that world was knocked into shape by the victors of the war. Ad victori sunt spolia indeed. Moreover, when the post-WWII world was created there were some 2.5 billion people on the earth, with a literacy rate of around 54%. Those literate people were also not at all connected. Telegraphs and telegrams were the order of the day. The world was also in a re-build phase, so industry and construction were first-and-foremost on the development agenda globally.

Fast forward to late 2020 and the beginnings of the post-COVID-19 world. To be fair, we have to start just before the pandemic hit and look at where the world was heading.

In this world, we already saw the fusing of digital, physical and biological systems. It all started in 1958 when Professor Homan van der Heide implanted the first mechanical pacemaker into a human patient. Today there are almost too many artificial organs and other devices to mention, and the technology is enjoying exponential growth.

In direct contrast to our parents and grandparents, the “new normal” we will encounter will be driven by individuals. They will be connected, younger and ambitious. In 2020 we see a global population of 7.5 billion people of which 86% are literate – and mostly connected. Take note of this fact. These are the individuals that will knock the post-covid-19 world into shape. On their terms. Think I’m wrong? In 2019 a young, 19-year old boy won an international competition in agriculture development. He found a way to increase seed yield and productivity (not chemically but by physical intervention) many-fold. He has no university or college degree. He learned all he wanted to know from YouTube. He has changed the world. As we enter into lockdown in South Africa, students from 9 different countries are already collaborating and printing medical protective gear to aid in the fight against COVID-19. Medical masks today. Tomorrow? Who knows?

This “new normal” will of necessity bring with it a new economic reality, a new economic story. Let’s find some historic context to base this reality on. In the last century, we saw two major economic shifts, namely Keynesianism and Neo-Liberalism. Keynesianism saw greater cooperation between government and business and with great emphasis on health and education. Neo-liberalism was in-effect a reaction to Keynesianism and placed far more emphasis on free markets, the individual and removing of governments and their role in business toward the late-century.

The new economy will be far more “opensource” and decentralized. Some refer to this emerging new economic model as the “circular economy”. The circular economy stands in direct contrast to what we experience today in the linear economy where, for the most part, we see a “make, use, discard” mindset. Fair to say a small amount of the products (or components of products) we discard is actually recycled. The circular economy will be more like “make, use, return”. This is, indeed, where the new normal will have the greatest impact. That driverless car you plan to buy will never be yours. You will pay the manufacturer of the car for kilometers traveled until the useful life of the vehicle has ended. After this, the manufacturer will supply you with a new one (3-D printed parts and all) in a seamless transaction. They will then recycle the old car and repurpose it for something else. This valorization of raw materials and products will certainly become a major part of our new economic reality. This new economy will further allow us to concentrate on the basic needs of every human being on the planet. It will be fairer and it will concentrate on maximizing human well-being. Again, this value shift has been slowly permeating into broader society over the last decade or so and will become more visible and accelerated post-COVID-19. In real terms, this circular economy will be based on, at least, the following tenets:

·        3-D Printing will deliver digital products to your computer, from where you will print them physically. Think medical masks today. Tupperware by e-mail tomorrow? 

·        Greater recovery of materials and recycle them to the economy.

·        Less growth based on resource constraints we see today and more growth based on sustainability.

Unlike the linear economy, the implementation of circular economic systems will not be driven by governments, but by business and individuals.

So, given the realities we’ve assumed so far, how do we prepare for this new normal? The first thing we need to do is relax. Then think clearly. Begin to imagine the future and anticipate the trends that will follow. If you feel you can’t, remember this - Inside of your skull, in your brain, sits the most complex arrangement of matter in the known universe. Use it.

Prepare for both best-and-worst case scenarios. Let me give you a hint. The post-COVID-19 world will see a recession. It might not last long, but it will be huge. Think of how you can establish (in your own life) a circular economic model that will see you benefit most as we clamber out of the looming recession. Be it in your own business, or one you are planning to enter into. Be creative. Use that grey matter we spoke of. 

Think of the jobs that are sure to disappear very shortly (according to Mc Kinsey, Bloomberg, Forbes et al.) and stay away from them, in their traditional sense at least.

·        Farmers – will become AI and robotics engineers, rather than tillers of the land

·        Switchboard operators

·        Basic accounting services and basic legal services

·        Drivers – think Uber and Lyft vs driverless cars vs driverless delivery of stuff which is already taking place

·        Fast food cooks

·        Fast food outlet front-end staff

·        Travel agents

·        Telemarketers

·        Social media professionals – YES! All of them

·        Manufacturing workers

·        Supermarket cashiers and front-end staff

So, my simple advice to my kids would be to keep alert, stay vigilant, become more creative than what you have ever been and see the post-covid-19 world as a massive opportunity rather than a massive challenge. Play by the rules. Where there aren’t any, create them.