Quick Take on Brexit
Here's my very quick take on UK's vote to leave EU.
I think a lot of voters felt very patronised by the political 'elite' of UK, EU and further afield over this subject. "Project Fear" inasmuch as it existed therefore probably backfired.
- It won't be the financial cataclysm George Osborne suggested -- weaker GBP great for exporters, and might make consumers think twice about some of their purchasing.
- There will be no emergency budget, and NHS spending won't be slashed.
- It's a good thing for EU as it will trigger some much-needed re-thinking of the whole 'European Project' in order to head off Czech, Netherlands and others that might be next to leave.
- Trade between UK & EU will barely be affected - UK will continue to buy a lot of EU's exports; unless of course EU makes it hard for UK to export its own goods back to EU by raising tariffs. Nobody wants a trade war.
I'm buying GBPUSD at $1.33
Read more here: https://rusnewton.com/2016/06/quick-take-on-brexit/
Co-founder of DAI, Decentralised Artificial Intelligence, inventor of the Proof of Uniqueness
6 年Rus, you guys are joking right? have you considered that ?EU is a trading community barring non-compliant products from entering the single market? Yes, these are American doped food and polluting cars and many many other stuff; it 's as simple as this: you can't free trade US and EU at the same time.? Consequences of the inevitable barriers: companies have to relocate to have seamless operations in EU, job losses , tax losses, more complicated and inefficient trading, ...this is not trade war this is just additional burden and costs for nothing in return but the nostalgia of an ancient empire... EU is not working? ...then make it work?
Founder & Executive Chairman at Asset Match Limited
8 年Good stuff...suspect the Swedish PM's comment is a sentiment held by a number of EU elected leaders..."the EU isn't working, this is is a wake-up call..."
Hedge Fund Consulting and Advisory
8 年Hi Russ, Solid analysis. Risks would be Irish re-unification (no more UK), Scottish independence (no more Great Britain), EU determines to make an example of UK to deter others - this strategy would backfire (the beatings will continue until morale improves)!
Agree GBP is a buy.
Serial entrepreneur, family office, Chairman of Laven Hosting and CEO of Leo RegTech
8 年Very optimistic. Cameron resigns. Tory war. Potential Corbyn government? Sterling instability will last. Managers will leave uk. Delays on decisions will slow growth. Am long gold and short corporates. Am USD in my investments. Am thinking how to help clients relocate to Lux or Ireland or even USA. Am betting on compliance software for firms that will need to cut costs for the next two years of transition.