A Quick Look Into September.

We begin September 2nd. We're starting a new week, starting a new month. We also have to remember that on Monday US markets are closed for the holiday, but we're going to be looking at commodities and what signals commodities might be giving us gold was up during the week, and silver and crude oil were down.

Copper was up a bit, but had very low volume. It was a very quiet week for copper next week. We'll be watching to see which side copper confirms. Do we have an economic downturn coming, leaving silver weak, crude and copper weak, and gold potentially strong on rate cuts? Or is it choosing to resume economic strength based on rate cuts, leaving gold stable, copper, crude, and silver all higher? That's going to be sort of the dynamic in the copper markets. And when you look at whether treasuries are hinting in one way or the other, they're really not. If you look at the weekly change in the two year, it was down 13 basis points, but we were essentially flat across the rest of the curve. The important thing to look at is that a two-tens inversion is almost completely flat now, so we're going to be keeping an eye on that as well. Payrolls are coming out next Friday. This is going to be the most critical piece of data. We have an estimate of 163,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.2% from 4.3 and looking for a slight wage increase of 0.1%.

So that's going to be the most important piece of data. But there is quite a bit of other data and there's also earnings. Next week we'll get 41 companies with over a billion in market cap, including Broadcom, Hewlett Packard, DocuSign, Dick's Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Casey General Stores, Toro, and Hormel Foods. In terms of data, Monday U.S. markets are closed, but we are getting small to medium-sized business PMIs.

This is the August final figures and it's the manufacturing figures for Germany, the EU, and the U.K. Tuesday, the same data for Canada and the U.S., along with U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI. Wednesday services PMI for Germany, the EU, and the UK. We also have the JOLTS jobs openings report and factory orders in the US. We'll get a Bank of Canada rate decision on Thursday. EU retail sales, ADP private barrels in the US, and ISM services PMI in the US, along of course with the weekly jobless claims. And on Friday, we get the first look at third-quarter GDP from the EU, Canadian unemployment data, and, of course, the non-farm payroll data in the US. And I'll top it off with a speech by New York Fed President.

Giovanni Betancourt

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