Quick Insights from My Trip to China

It was an honor to attend the Emerging Economies Forum (EEF) in Guangzhou, sponsored by the National Social Science Fund of China, and represent THAE Consulting （泰懿思（上海）商务咨询有限公司） throughout key engagements in Shanghai and Beijing as well. In addition to attending the EEF, I also visited the CISCE exhibition and reconnected with peers at Fudan University, met with clients and explored new business opportunities across the country.

After living in China for almost six years (2015-2017 and 2018-2022), revisiting the country as a visitor always offers me a fresh perspective. Impressions evolve, and here are some of my key observations from this latest journey in November 2024:

1. Economic Uncertainty – Conversations with professors, clients, and colleagues behind the scenes revealed skepticism about the reported 5% GDP growth in China. Some doubt that the economy is genuinely growing at this rate, and the overall sentiment among the Chinese felt notably negative.

2. Shift in Belt and Road Investments – A major topic at the Guangzhou forum was the evolving Belt and Road Initiative. There’s a clear shift toward smaller, high-impact projects in technology, environmental sustainability, and healthcare. Interestingly, even the Chinese, amid current economic caution, are beginning to question the government’s previous investments totaling trillions of dollars abroad, given the need for domestic development. This was the event's central topic.

3. Rising Unemployment – The job market, particularly for younger generations, remains a serious concern, with potential implications for economic stability and consumer confidence. Students are increasingly anxious and searching for opportunities.

4. Declining Expat Presence – Expat numbers in Shanghai and across China continue to decline, with many citing lower compensation and fewer dynamic opportunities. Personally, I’ve always found Shanghai’s fast pace overwhelming, so now, as a visitor, I appreciated its calmer atmosphere. However, residents see it differently—most of my friends who stayed in China expressed dissatisfaction and admitted they are actively seeking work opportunities abroad. A few Brazilians, however, still view China as a better market than Brazil in terms of salaries and opportunities.

5. Evolving First Impressions – As a visitor, the wealth in China still appears abundant, especially compared to Brazil's reality. This is exemplified by the numerous luxury cars seen around West Nanjing Road and in shopping areas. However, there’s a noticeable shift—while surface prosperity remains, the underlying exuberance seems more subdued, suggesting deeper concerns beneath the surface.

6. Lula as a Balancing Force – Scholars in Fudan and Guangzhou were eager to discuss President Lula’s potential role in balancing U.S.-China relations post-Trump. I wrote a short paper on this topic at the request of a colleague seeking Brazilian insights for his research. Personally, I believe in Brazil's pragmatic diplomacy, and our relationship with the U.S. will remain strong due to proximity and other factors. In contrast, our relationship with China is marked by both geographic and cultural distance, which are difficult to overcome, even though President Lula may prefer China over the U.S. in certain matters.

7. Labor Conditions – While waiting at the airport for my return flight, a friend shared a Quatro Rodas article reporting accusations of worker exploitation at an electric vehicle plant in Cama?ari, Brazil. Having visited numerous factories in China, I’m unfortunately aware of how plausible these claims could be, though they are still under investigation. This raises significant concerns about how Chinese labor practices translate locally and how such issues could impact the company’s and China’s image in Brazil.

8. Returning Home – After the long journey, I arrived in S?o Paulo exhausted, excited, and relieved. Excited by all the interesting conversations, meetings, and new business opportunities that opened up... The CISCE exhibition was particularly intriguing, showcasing several new technologies and industrial developments. But as I opened my windows at home, I was greeted by S?o Paulo’s fresh air—even in the biggest city of Brazil—a stark contrast to Beijing, my last stop, where air quality remains a challenge. It felt good to be back home!

China is still a challenging place to be.