The Quick Commerce Gamble....

Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about quick commerce and the massive FOMO (fear of missing out) that seems to be gripping every grocery retailer and delivery platform. It feels like every week, there’s a new player entering the space, throwing their hat into the ring, trying to carve out a piece of the market that Blinkit and Zepto have already made a strong claim on.

What’s driving all of this? It’s simple: customers are hooked. This promise of “10-minute deliveries” has shifted consumer behavior almost overnight. People now expect their grocery shopping to be instantaneous — no more planning, no more lists. They know they can get what they need, when they need it, and that sense of convenience is a powerful force.

But here’s where it gets messy, and I can’t stop thinking about this as a product manager: quick commerce, at its core, is incredibly expensive to run. Dark stores are popping up in urban centers to meet this demand, each one holding huge amounts of inventory. Single-order deliveries are often the norm, and while some players are batching deliveries, it still doesn’t bring costs down significantly. There’s no way around it — the operational model is heavy.

Quick commerce is like a baby learning to walk. We’re watching it take its first steps in major urban areas, but there’s a big question mark around profitability. The cost to manage inventory, predict demand (which is even more unpredictable with consumers ordering last-minute), and keep perishable items in stock is overwhelming.

What fascinates me is the potential role traditional supermarkets could play in all of this. Think about D-Mart or Metro — they’ve already mastered the art of inventory management, serving a wide range of consumer needs from groceries to non-food items under one roof. I can’t help but wonder: Could traditional supermarkets evolve into dark stores for quick commerce? Or maybe even something better?

In my mind, there’s a real opportunity here for supermarkets to double down on their supply chain efficiency. These big players have the infrastructure, the know-how, and, most importantly, the scale to potentially reduce the operating costs of dark stores. We could see more models emerge — centralized fulfillment hubs or a mother-hub-and-spoke system, replenishing inventory across multiple micro-fulfillment centers. But even then, we’re left with the same old issues: seasonality, unpredictable demand, and perishable goods.

Adding electronics or higher-margin items into the SKU mix is something some players are already testing. It makes sense, right? Electronics bring better margins, and if quick commerce can move beyond groceries into that space, maybe profitability isn’t such a pipe dream after all. But that’s a whole new challenge in itself — one that traditional supermarkets don’t yet face.

The question that’s been sitting with me is this: How do we solve the cost of customer acquisition in this space? Right now, companies are spending ?700-800 just to bring in one customer for their first order. That’s huge. And, let’s be honest, customers have learned to game the system. They’ll hop from app to app, using discounts and promotions to get the best deal. It makes me think — we’re not just competing for customer attention anymore; we’re competing for customer loyalty in an environment where loyalty is as fleeting as the next promo code.

The more I look at it, the more it feels like a balancing act between convenience and cost. Quick commerce feels like it’s caught in this middle ground between what customers want right now and the long-term viability of the business model. We’re seeing D2C brands throw huge margins at quick commerce players just to penetrate the market — but how sustainable is that, really?

I’m excited but also a bit wary of how this will all play out. Will quick commerce evolve into something more sustainable, or are we watching a trend that will fizzle out once companies realize the costs outweigh the convenience? Even giants like Amazon and Walmart aren’t rushing into 10-minute delivery. They’re focusing on perfecting same-day delivery instead, and that speaks volumes.

I’m curious to hear what others in my network think. Will we see a future where supermarkets become dark stores, or will they evolve in a completely different direction? Will quick commerce ever figure out its profitability puzzle, or is it destined to remain an expensive convenience?